WORLD ROUNDUPDonald Trump Risks a Quagmire in Iran | Assad Loyalists Are Regrouping | Breaking China’s Hold on Critical Minerals, and more

Britain Spends Billions More than France on Defense, So Why Is the French Military Superior?  (Colin Freeman, The Telegraph)
As war escalates in the Middle East, Macron is positioning himself as Europe’s protector while our Armed Forces flounder

Russia Sends Migrants into Europe Through Secret Tunnels  (James Rothwell and Pawel Kwiecien, The Telegraph)
Mystery specialists from Middle East recruited to construct underground routes.

Donald Trump Risks a Quagmire in Iran  (Benjamin Giltner, National Interest)
The Trump administration appears to believe that the Iranian government can be overthrown, or at least coerced into a political settlement, via airstrikes. History begs to differ.

Defending Europe if Russia Steps Out of the Gray Zone  (Liana Fix, CFR)
Europe needs to prepare to manage low-level Russian aggression without the help of the United States.

Europe’s Desire for Strategic Autonomy Is a ‘Fait Accompli.’ It Just Needs to Decide What That Means  (François Diaz-Maurin, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)
At the Munich Security Conference last week, Europeans focused on meeting their own security needs in the face of continued threats from Moscow and rapidly eroding trust with Washington. Among the discussions, nuclear deterrence was high on the agenda, with several countries announcing bilateral talks on the issue.
But to achieve a credible deterrent to Russia that is no longer—or at least less—dependent on the United States capabilities, European countries will have to work out their different strategic visions. This process will include attempts to find common ground between two proposals for a strategic posture that would rely entirely on either conventional or nuclear deterrence to counter Russia’s threats. Those proposals, however, are insufficient. A European deterrence strategy will need to offer an integrated and holistic approach to the security of the continent.

Assad Loyalists Are Regrouping. The World Should Help the New Syrian Government Destroy Leftover Chemical Weapons—Now  (Gregory D. Koblentz, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)
The fate of chemical weapons that remain unaccounted for in Syria more than a year after the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad can no longer be treated as a low priority—an issue of interest only to arms control wonks. Disturbing reports that Assad loyalists are reorganizing and rearming mean that the danger of chemical weapons being used yet again in Syria is growing. The international response so far has been to channel resources to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the international organization charged with implementing the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) that bans chemical weapons. Supporting the OPCW is necessary, but not sufficient. For the OPCW to be effective, it needs a capable partner in Damascus. The new Syrian government is taking its commitments under the chemical weapons treaty seriously, but it has significant gaps in its capacity that limit its effectiveness. Locating, securing, and destroying leftover chemical weapons and ensuring accountability for chemical crimes committed by the Assad regime requires providing assistance directly to the new Syrian government. The road to Syria’s chemical disarmament and compliance with the chemical weapons treaty runs through Damascus, not the OPCW headquarters in The Hague.

Cyber Deterrence Without Illusions: Europe’s Escalation Dilemma  (John Allen and Alexandr Burilkov, National Interest)
The divided political structure of Europe makes it uniquely vulnerable to cyberwarfare from external actors—and European security institutions must devise better ways to respond.

Breaking China’s Hold on Critical Minerals Requires More than Tariffs  (Elaine Dezenski and Daniel Swift, National Interest)
Project Vault tackles investment risk directly, while FORGE will falter unless it becomes an enforceable trade regime.

Russia’s Air Defenses Could Shoot Down Britain’s Nuclear Missiles  (Joe Barnes and Amy Gibbons, The Telegraph)
Two anti-ballistic missile systems set to form layered defense around Moscow within a decade.