IRAN WARGulf Leaders Didn’t Want the Iran War. They Need Trump to Win It Anyway.
Leaders in the region weren’t necessarily interested in a war with the Islamic Republic, but they now need Trump to oust the Iranian regime to ensure it can no longer pose a threat. Stopping short of that would be existential to the Gulf states’ development model.
Throughout four weeks of war, Iran has continued to make the United States’ Gulf partners pay a price for Operation Epic Fury and Israel’s Operation Roaring Lion. The Iranians have fired thousands of missiles and dronesat their neighbors, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) bearing the brunt of the assault. There is also significant damage to energy infrastructure in Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.
From the first days of the conflict, part of the Islamic Republic’s strategy was immediately clear: inflict significant pain on Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia so that they would in turn pressure the United States (and by extension, Israel) to end the hostilities. It was a miscalculation. Gulf leaders did not want the war and have privately expressed frustration with the United States and Israel for causing chaos in the region, but they have not pressured President Donald Trump to stop the U.S. attacks. Instead, Saudis, Emiratis, Qataris, and others have closed ranks with each other, signaled that they have a considerable stake in the war’s outcome, and counseled the Trump administration not to end military operations prematurely.
Washington’s Gulf partners do not want to be left with an Iran that can continue to threaten the region and even impose a new regime on the Strait of Hormuz. Not only would this constitute a strategic defeat for the United States (and Israel), but it would also threaten the Gulf states’ model of development.
Over the last decade, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have embarked on ambitious efforts to transform their economies. They have opened themselves to the world, provided advantageous business environments, built world-class infrastructure, leveraged their geography to become logistics and travel hubs, and invested heavily in technology, especially artificial intelligence (AI). The Emiratis clearly lead in all these areas, but the Saudis and Qataris (and to a lesser extent the Bahrainis, Omanis, and Kuwaitis) are generally pulling in this direction. They are betting hundreds of billions of dollars on initiatives that will render hydrocarbons one facet of diversified economies and prosperous societies.
