NUCLEAR WEAPONSThe Unravelling of the Global Nuclear Order
While the NPT is experiencing a credibility crisis, the future of the CTBT hangs in the balance. The expiry of the New START on 5 February 2026 marked the end of the arms control era. The nuclear taboo regarding the non-use of nuclear weapons is fast diminishing due to explicit nuclear threats by world leaders. The infusion of AI into nuclear decision-making, meanwhile, is likely to affect strategic stability.
The foundations of the global nuclear order are becoming increasingly fragile. According to Kjølv Egeland, nuclear order is portrayed as “a ‘pragmatic’ or ‘practical’ compromise between unconstrained nuclear anarchy, on the one hand, and prompt steps toward nuclear disarmament, on the other”.[1] For William Walker, the nuclear order during the Cold War was based on just two factors: “a managed system of deterrence, and a managed system of abstinence”.
The United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), the predecessor of Russia, largely shaped the nuclear order that emerged around 1970. The two superpowers engaged in an unrestricted nuclear build-up until the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, when the world was brought back from the brink of nuclear exchange between the two countries. Though the intense rivalry persisted between the US and the USSR, there was mutual understanding regarding two aspects: one, the prevention of unwanted nuclear war and second, the prevention of nuclear proliferation, leading to the creation of multiple nuclear players.[3]
Although discussions about ways to inhibit nuclear weapons spread began in the late 1950s, they gained momentum because of the Cuban Missile Crisis, leading to the formation of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), established in 1957, became the primary legal instrument for verifying that nations use nuclear technology exclusively for peaceful purposes.
Similarly, on the bilateral front, the two superpowers agreed to negotiate arms-control treaties governing various aspects of the arms race, beginning with the successful negotiation of the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 1972 as part of the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT). Thus, the global nuclear regime, represented by the NPT and the IAEA, along with bilateral arms-control treaties, should be considered a fundamental pillar of the global nuclear order.
Apart from this regime, the US has played an important role in preventing nations from seeking nuclear weapons by providing a nuclear security umbrella in Asia and Europe. Though providing a nuclear umbrella was a calculated act during the Cold War years aimed at consolidating the US camp, it nevertheless contributed to non-proliferation efforts. Thus, extended nuclear deterrence became another essential pillar of the global nuclear order.
