The Election in Hungary Could Help Curb the Rightward Shift in Europe, a Researcher Believes

Formally a Democracy
Today, Hungary is formally a democracy. 

The European Parliament, however, has stated that the country cannot be considered a full democracy, but rather a so-called ‘electoral autocracy.’ In other words, a country where elections exist, but which does not function as a liberal democracy. 

Since 2010, Orbán and the Fidesz party have won all parliamentary elections without the opposition having a real chance of taking power.  

For the first time in nearly two decades, the situation is now different. 

The Most Important Election in a Generation
“This is the most important election in Hungary in a generation,” says Terje Knutsen, a political scientist at the University of Bergen. 

Hungary was the country that, under communism, was the most liberal, with extensive trade with Western Europe. It had a smooth transition from communism to a more Western system, he explains.

“The country deserved to become an EU member in 2004. But since 2010, most things have gone in the wrong direction under Orbán,” he believes.

The Social Democrats completely discredited themselves in 2009-10, and it was Viktor Orbán’s stated goal that they should never come to power again. 

He has succeeded in that, but at the same time established an authoritarian state.

“He has hollowed out the rule of law and established a firm control over most media. He is also close to Putin,” says Knutsen.

Confident – but Not Certain
The Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, appears to have a solid lead in independent opinion polls.

Polls conducted by more government-friendly think tanks or organizations show more favorable results for the government.

According to Knutsen, Magyar has so far avoided corruption scandals. Still, his ideological distance from Viktor Orbán is relatively small.

“He was a member of Orbán’s party until 2024, when he left and exposed corruption. But he positions himself as more pro-European and identifies as a national liberal,” he says.

Nick Sitter believes the opposition has a good chance of winning this election, but he is still not entirely convinced.

“Orbán has carefully reshaped the electoral system over many years, changing constituencies and adjusting the balance of power. According to independent Hungarian political scientists, the opposition needs to be at least 5-6 per cent ahead on election day to win a majority,” he says.

Decline in the Public Sector
Opposition figures are targeting Orbán on issues like democratic backsliding, corruption, and the deterioration of the public sector.

“The core message is that a corrupt elite has taken full control of the country, while ordinary people are left with poor schools and hospitals,” says Sitter. 

Péter Magyar has travelled across the country holding public meetings, he explains.

“I attended one of them last summer. There were 200 people standing in 35-degree heat listening to him speak. He focused on what people actually care about: schools, hospitals, and the prices in stores. He has also focused on what makes the regime extremely unpopular: corruption and the fact that a small circle around Orbán and his family has become very wealthy,” says Sitter.

Could Mobilize Undecided Voters
Sitter says that Viktor Orbán has focused on one thing in this election campaign, namely the war in Ukraine.

“His message is simple: My opponent is a useful idiot for Brussels. He will take money from Hungary and give it to Zelensky, and he will send Hungarian soldiers to Ukraine,” he says.

“These competing narratives reflect a deeply polarized country. But there is also a group of voters who say they are not entirely sure who to vote for,” Sitter adds.

That uncertainty gives Orbán an opening to mobilize ‘sofa voters’ to his side. Sitter believes that by emphasizing fears of war, he may be able to sway those still undecided.

“If I had to place a bet, I would bet that the opposition wins. Public dissatisfaction is so great that they have a real chance,” he says.

Cheerleader for Europe’s MAGA
Orbán has emerged as a leading figure and cheerleader for what Sitter calls ‘Europe’s MAGA movement,’ a far-right network strongly inspired by Donald Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again.’

“They strongly oppose immigration. They are skeptical of EU bureaucracy and the ‘elite in Brussels,’ and they are critical of liberalism and climate policies, among other things. They also have more sympathy and less opposition towards Russia,” he says.

Hungary has frequently used its EU veto power to block or delay major financial support packages for Ukraine.

“Orbán often acts as a brake on sanctions against Russia and funding for Ukraine. Sometimes he firmly applies the brakes; other times he uses the threat as a bargaining tool,” says Sitter.

A Sigh of Relief
Sitter emphasizes that the election carries major political and geopolitical weight, especially for relations between the EU, Russia, and Ukraine.

Terje Knutsen believes the EU would breathe a sigh of relief if Magyar is elected.

Like Sitter, he believes Magyar has a real chance of winning.

“I think many in Budapest and the larger cities want change. But Orbán’s nationalist tone resonates strongly in rural areas. This will likely be an election between city and countryside. If he manages to mobilize the conservative countryside, he could win,” says Knutsen.

A win for Tisza and Magyar could signal a fresh start – not just domestically, but also in Hungary’s relationship with Europe, according to Knutsen.

“It remains to be seen what EU policy under Prime Minister Magyar would look like. But it would almost certainly be better than Orbán’s veto-driven approach,” he says.

Siw Ellen Jakobsen is a Norwegian journalist. The story originally appeared in Sciencenorway.no, which is theNorwegian part of ScienceNordic.com.The story is republished courtesy of ScienceNordic, the trusted source for English-language science news from the Nordic countries. The story was translated by Alette Bjordal Gjellesvik.