DEPORTATIONS & THE ECONOMYICE Surges Have Triggered Massive Job Losses—Including Among Americans
The enforcement surge cost 668,000 jobs. Of the 668,000 jobs lost, an estimated 51,000-297,000 would have been held by American-born workers. Losses concentrated in immigrant-intensive sectors but spread well beyond them.
The Brookings Institution has just issued a new study on the impact of mass deportation on U.S. jobs. The study shows that the jobs lost as a result of deporting undocumented immigrants are not limited to jobs held by these immigrants: the ripple effect of deportation causes tens of thousands – perhaps hundreds of thousands – of jobs held by American citizens to be lost as well.
Here are the study’s Highlights, Executive Summary, Key Findings, and Discussion:
Highlights
● The enforcement surge cost 668,000 jobs. Across the cities with the sharpest rise in ICE arrests, employment fell 0.73% below what they would have seen absent the surge, and 1.48% in the 51 cities observed at least six months out.
● Job losses far exceeded the number of people arrested. Across 86 surge cities, ICE made roughly 52,000 excess arrests, yet each excess arrest, as a proxy for the broader enforcement shock, is associated with 13 jobs lost overall. Of the 668,000 jobs lost, an estimated 51,000-297,000 would have been held by American-born workers.
● Losses concentrated in immigrant-intensive sectors but spread well beyond them. The deepest direct hits fell on construction and on accommodation and food services, but industries with very few immigrant workers—such as arts and entertainment—also contracted sharply.
Executive Summary
The current administration’s 2025 interior immigration enforcement campaign has been promoted, in large part, as a labor market policy: remove unauthorized workers and create jobs for Americans. This research evaluates that claim and finds the reverse: Enforcement surges cost jobs, including jobs held by American-born workers.
Spearheaded by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the 2025 campaign represented a sharp break from prior enforcement policy in scale and tactics. The 2025 approach, in the administration’s own description, was built around “shock and awe” tactics:1 highly visible raids, worksite arrests, and viral videos of detentions—acts designed to induce fear in a broad population. Moreover, where previous administrations across both parties paired enforcement with expanded pathways for lawful presence and entry to meet U.S. labor demand,2 the 2025 approach abandoned that pairing, launching an enforcement-only campaign coupled with policies to squeeze legal migration.
We compare employment outcomes between cities that experienced a sharp surge in ICE activity in the first half of 2025 and those that did not. This approach isolates the specific effect of enforcement surges on local economies and rules out other potential drivers of job loss, such as tariffs, war, inflation, and AI.
