TERRORISMHamas Files Reveal Long-Term Plan to Trigger Israel’s Collapse: New Research

Hamas had spent years meticulously preparing to “detonate” a regional infrastructure to bring about the total military collapse of the State of Israel, according to seized documents reviewed in a new study by Hebrew University of Jerusalem (HU) researchers.  

The study, published in Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, reveals a far more predatory reality. Meanwhile, Israeli intelligence viewed Hamas as a rational, “war-averse” actor primarily concerned with governing the Gaza Strip and securing economic concessions. 

The research, authored by HU professor Dr. Daniel Sobelman, draws on a trove of top-secret Hamas documents seized by Israeli forces during the ongoing war. The study paints a chilling portrait of a leadership that grew so emboldened by its perceived “deterrence” over Israel that it began viewing the country’s destruction not as a distant religious dream, but as a “realistic objective” achievable within a near-term window.  

The study describes how Hamas used deception and coordinated with Iran-backed militant groups across the region to exploit Israel’s internal political divisions and what researchers describe as a major failure by Israeli intelligence to anticipate such a large-scale attack. 

“October 7 was not only a catastrophic intelligence failure,” said Dr. Sobelman. “It was the result of a long-term strategic shift in which Hamas came to believe that Israel’s collapse was no longer a fantasy, but an achievable military objective.” 

The research identifies the years leading up to the 2023 attack as a period of profound strategic shift. Hamas moved from a defensive posture to an offensive one, increasingly tethering its fate to the “Axis of Resistance,” a regional alliance led by Iran and anchored by Hezbollah.