CHINA WATCHBookshelf: The Next China Is Still China
Could another country replace China as the world’s economic growth leader, or could China reset for a new phase of economic leadership? This is the key question Joe Ngai and Nick Leung address in their new book.
Could another country replace China as the world’s economic growth leader, or could China reset for a new phase of economic leadership? This is the key question Joe Ngai and Nick Leung address in their new book, The Next China is Still China.
The pattern of economic development in East Asia is often likened to a group of flying geese, where leaders progressively cede their place to others. In this spirit, Japan led East Asia’s postwar development until its leadership was assumed by South Korea and Taiwan, then by some of the economies of Southeast Asia and, more recently, China.
Thus, the question is, as China’s economy slows and matures, could another country assume the mantle of world economic growth leader? Ngai and Leung make the case that the next China is still China – essentially, that China will enter a new phase of economic leadership. The authors are management consultants at McKinsey & Company, a management consulting organization, and are able to offer valuable insights on the nitty-gritty of the Chinese economy.
China’s economic future is a matter of contentious debate among analysts. Some pessimists argue that China is headed towards Japanese-style stagnation in light of its rapidly ageing population, high national public debt, heavy state economic control and geopolitical tensions. Further, the Chinese economy is still suffering from a real estate crisis and industrial overcapacity, while youth unemployment is stubbornly high.
Against that, optimists point to China’s extraordinary technological progress in artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, renewable energy and space exploration. More fundamentally, China still has enormous catchup potential. Its GDP per capita of US$14,870 (A$21,290) is only one-sixth that of the United States, while its urbanization rate of 66 percent is still well behind the US’s rate of 80 percent.
According to Ngai and Leung, China is at a moment of ‘reset’, and the next China is taking shape as ‘outward-facing, commercially sophisticated and structurally embedded in the world economy’. And even amid this reset, China’s economic growth in 2026 is slated to be 4.5 percent, more than double that of the advanced economies.
