ENERGY SECURITYFor Energy Systems That Power a Reliable Grid, the Future Is All About Location
Researchers have created a way to make more climate-informed energy siting choices, and shown how it can be used to make energy systems more resilient and reduce blackouts. Where new energy projects are built could be key to avoiding blackouts in a future with hotter weather and other challenges.
Will a warming climate and changing weather patterns lead to more grid blackouts and other energy disruptions? Answering that question requires studying both regional climate forecasts and local energy systems, including emerging renewable generation, storage, transmission lines, and demand forecasts. The lack of such studies is one reason why energy developers and grid operators rarely consider climate change when deciding where to build their next project.
Now MIT researchers have created a way to make more climate-informed energy siting choices, and shown how it can be used to make energy systems more resilient and reduce blackouts. The researchers’ framework, described today in Nature Energy, combines fine-scale meteorology with detailed simulations of energy infrastructure. It shows how the location of new energy projects will play a significant role in meeting future demand in a changing climate.
The researchers applied their framework to decarbonized energy systems in New England and Texas, finding that energy systems designed for historic climate conditions could face up to a fivefold increase in energy shortfalls, potentially leading to blackouts, by 2050. Taking climate change into account when designing the system, conversely, improved the resilience of both regions’ energy systems at no or very little additional costs.
“As we mitigate climate change with renewables, we can also adapt to climate change by using future weather projections in our power system planning, and the extra costs of that adaptation are, at least in this study, not much,” says senior author Michael Howland, MIT’s Jeffrey Cheah Career Development Professor. “It’s different from other climate adaptation studies, where building a big seawall or other mitigation efforts are really expensive. In this case, if we’re smart when we design our power system decarbonization plans, it could cost almost nothing extra to simultaneously adapt to climate change.”
Joining Howland on the paper are first author Liying Qiu, a former MIT postdoc; Rahman Khorramfar and Shen Wang, current postdocs at MIT; and Saurabh Amin, MIT’s Edmund K. Turner Professor in Civil Engineering.
A Better Way to Think About Energy Projects
The world’s energy systems are in a period of change. On the demand side, that change is driven by trends like the rising demand for artificial intelligence and the electrification of industries including transportation. On the supply side, that change is driven by the plummeting costs of renewable systems like solar and wind energy.
