Expert: Oil Is Rarely the Cause of War

Claes notes that the large oil reserves many oil-dependent countries have built up, and China’s rapid reduction in oil consumption, made the closure less dramatic than one might have expected.

“Even so, the explicit threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, and the ability to actually do so, is Iran’s strongest card,” says the energy researcher.

Previously, according to Claes, the United States believed it could reopen the strait militarily, even if Iran managed to close it for a short period. The experience of the war in Ukraine has changed that calculation.

Claes points out that Iran has acquired a new weapon: large numbers of drones modelled on those developed in Ukraine.

“These are small, relatively cheap, and difficult to defend against,” he says.

Claes adds that when an ultra-large crude carrier can carry more than three million barrels of oil, each cargo represents values that no shipping company can afford to lose. As a result, the risk becomes enormous.

“If you hit an oil tanker, it burns. In that way, Hormuz becomes not only a geographical bottleneck, but a political and economic weapon,” he says.

The U.S. Is Not Dependent on Energy from the Middle East
Claes also notes that the US energy situation is radically different from what it used to be.

“Since the shale oil revolution around 2008, the US has become a net exporter of both oil and gas,” he says.

At the same time, he reminds us that the US, despite what many believe, has never been heavily dependent on the Middle East for oil. Historically, much of US oil has come from close neighbors such as Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela.

“But the oil market is global and the price is set internationally. American motorists pay gasoline prices that reflect crises in Hormuz, regardless of where the oil physically comes from,” he explains.

When the gasoline price in the United States exceed certain thresholds – ‘five dollars per gallon is a political red flag’ – the distance between decisions made in Washington and everyday life at American gas stations becomes small, according to Claes.

“Then we see the chain that runs from a US presidential decision to bomb Iran, via Iran’s response in Hormuz, to the price voters pay to fill their tanks,” he says. stresses.

The Sun and Wind Cannot Be Owned By Individual States
Many countries in the world are in the process of transitioning to greener energy.

Claes is not sure the world will become less conflict-ridden simply because it becomes less dependent on fossil fuels. One reason is that wars and conflicts rarely begin because of energy resources.

Nevertheless, he sees some potential for less conflict if green energy becomes the world’s primary energy source.

“Sun and wind are resources that no one can own in the same way as oil and gas. They exist to some extent everywhere and are often described as a ‘free gift of nature.’ When individual countries build up renewable energy systems and become more self-sufficient in electricity, they become less vulnerable to other suppliers cutting off supplies in a conflict,” says Claes.

He emphasizes, however, that renewable energy can also be politicized.

“If one country or region develops large amounts of wind and solar power and becomes the main electricity supplier for others that have not ‘done their homework’ domestically, electricity can be used as leverage in much the same way that gas is used today,” he says.

The difference, according to Claes, lies in the degree of dependence.

“The more a country can cover its energy needs with its own resources, the harder it becomes for others to use energy as a weapon,” he says.

Reference
Claes, D.H. Energy Politics in a Turbulent Era (Summary), Edward Elgar Publishing, 2025. ISBN: 978 1 03533 159 8

Gro Lien Garbo is Senior Adviser, Communications Department, University of Oslo. This story, which is content paid for and presented by the University of Oslo, is republished courtesy of ScienceNordic, the trusted source for English-language science news from the Nordic countries.