THUCYDIDES TRAPThe Real Thucydides Trap Is Inside Western Tech
Thucydides Trap is a theory which describes how the established power is so anxious about the rising power that it strikes at the rising power and starts a war. Whether or not history provides examples of Thucydides Trap is a subject of lively scholarly debates, but it does exist within Western tech companies. And if we do not change our ways, our desire for intense technological competition within and among Western nations, with economic outcomes prioritized over geostrategic, will again benefit only China.
The following is a speech delivered by ASPI executive director Justin Bassi at the Australian Defense Science, Technology and Research Summit, held in Adelaide from 4 to 6 August 2026.
Just over 10 years ago, I sat in the oval office with my then boss Malcolm Turnbull and President Obama listening to them debate the Thucydides Trap. This is a theory that has made Graham Allison famous but for which, in my view, there is no modern-day example – where the established power is so anxious about the rising power that it strikes at the rising power and starts a war.
It is a debate that has been fun for some, and with repressed memories for others, but the theory has actually only benefited China. It has seen the West go out of its way to refer to China as predominantly an economic partner and tie itself in knots about being strategic rivals. This has constrained our ability to compete technologically with China, and instead we have actually helped China’s path to tech dominance.
And while the Thucydides Trap is a red herring for wars, it does exist within Western tech companies. And if we do not change our ways, our desire for intense technological competition within and among Western nations, with economic outcomes prioritized over geostrategic, will again benefit only China. We are not just playing on an uneven field, we are at times not even in the park. That’s the key I’d like you to take away today, so more on that in a bit.
But first, how did we get here today, with technology being so important to not just economic prosperity but central to the democratic versus authoritarian battle for global supremacy?
Many people forget that at the center of the Cold War sat technology: the space race and arms race were about tech, but about more than space and weapons. They were about global standards, safety, security and supply.
And when politicians and analysts talk about strategic competition between the US and China, or about Cold War 2.0 or just strategic competition, tech once again sits at the center of it. This time, though, it is even more challenging for the West.
