WORLD ROUNDUPTrump’s Iran Negotiations: The Art of Concealing Defeat | How China Is Quietly Winning the Iran War Energy Crisis | Reagan Broke the Soviets. Is the Kremlin’s Atomic Empire Next?, and more

Trump’s Iran Negotiations Trade the Art of the Deal for the Art of Concealing Defeat  (Elliott Abrams, CFR)
Trump’s desire to end the confrontation with Iran quickly, so oil flows and prices drop, has left him with no real bargaining position. That has emboldened Iran to demand a deal that would let it monetize the Strait of Hormuz and reassert the dominance the region has spent two years fighting to unwind.

How the Mecca Pact Shifts the Middle East’s Military Balance  (Mark Kimmitt, National Interest)
The combination of Turkish industry, Saudi wealth, and Pakistani military know-how could create a formidable new defense industrial base.

What Happens When China Threatens to Cut Off Taiwan’s Power  (Josh Rogin, Washington Post)
Governments and corporations alike view ever-rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait warily — and wonder how a crisis might unfold. One possible scenario is an energy blockade that could threaten global technology supply chains.
In a two-round crisis simulation held in Washington last month, a group of officials, experts and journalists explored this very scenario. Participants were assigned to teams — the U.S., Japan, Australia, Taiwan or a fictional U.S. electronics manufacturer, Advanced Circuit Systems — with the simulation moderators playing China to see how both sides would respond under pressure.

The Houthis Are Risking Everything for Iran  (By Fatima Abo Alasrar, Foreign Policy)
Tehran’s proxy risks pushing a newly consolidated Saudi Arabia into an all-out ground war.

The Regional Order Iran Wanted Is Taking Shape Without It  (Saeid Jafari, Foreign Policy)
Tehran has long called for greater cooperation among Muslim states. The Mecca pact is not what it had in mind.

What the US Navy Can Learn from Iran  (Christopher A. Preble and Marie-Louise Westermann, National Interest)
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz underscores the need for US strategists to reframe what it means to exercise sea power.

Reagan Broke the Soviets. Is the Kremlin’s Atomic Empire Next?  (Rob Sweeney, National Interest)
The Ukraine war is starving Rosatom of capital, Washington is coming for its fuel business, and America and its allies can take the market it leaves behind.

How China Is Quietly Winning the Iran War Energy Crisis  (Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson, CFR)
Five months of war in Iran have completely reshaped energy markets. This week, the Baker Institute’s Kristian Coates Ulrichsen joins Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby to examine how conflict in the Strait of Hormuz exposed the fragility of the world’s maritime chokepoints, and revealed China as the quiet winner of the crisis.