Rare Earth metals: Will we have enough?

Geochemistry at the Earth Institute’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “Every megawatt of electricity needs 200 kilograms of neodymium — or 20 percent of one ton,” he said. “So if every big wind turbine produces one megawatt, five turbines will require one ton of neodymium. If wind is going to play a major part in replacing fossil fuels, we will need to increase our supply of neodymium.”

A recent MIT study (and see this Environmental Science and Technology article, which is based on the study) projected that neodymium demand could grow by as much as 700 percent over the next 25 years; demand for dysprosium, also needed for wind turbines, could increase by 2,600 percent. China currently supplies 97 percent of global rare Earth metal demand, and 100 percent of heavy rare Earth metals such as terbium and dysprosium, used in wind turbines. In 2005 it began restricting exports to preserve resources and protect the environment, causing prices to soar. Today, the United States is 100 percent dependent on imports for rare Earth metals. From the mid-1960s through the 1980s, however, Molycorp’s Mountain Pass mine in California was the world’s main source of rare Earth metals. As the U.S. share of rare Earth metal production declined, China used government support, research and development, training programs, cheap labor and low prices to develop its supply chain, increasing its share of rare Earth metal production from 27 percent in 1990 to 97 percent in 2011. In March, the United States, Japan, and the European Union lodged a complaint with the World Trade Organization over China’s limits on rare Earth exports. In response, China announced that it will export 30,996 more metric tons of rare Earth metals in 2012 than it did in 2011.

The release notes that the United States, South Africa, Canada, Australia, Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa, Malaysia, and Malawi also have deposits of rare Earth metals, and while the U.S. Geological Survey expects that global reserves and as yet undiscovered deposits of rare Earth metals will be able to meet future demand, new mines may take up to ten years to develop, and resources in remote areas will likely be much more difficult to extract.

Kelemen is confident that ongoing global exploration for neodymium, for which there is no known substitute in low-weight magnets for electric motors and generators, will be successful and boost short-term supplies. On the other hand,