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Iran’s nukesU.S. Ending Sanctions Waivers on Iran's Civilian Nuclear Program
The United States has announced it will end sanctions waivers that allow Russian, Chinese, and European firms to carry out civilian nuclear cooperation with Iran, effectively scrapping the last remnants of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, a move dismissed by Tehran as “desperate.”
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Iran’s nukesSnapback of Sanctions under the Terms of the Nuclear Deal Is Fully Justified Today
“If Iran today wants a serious discussion about sanctions relief, it should start by abandoning the key threat Tehran poses to international peace and security: its uranium enrichment program,” writes David Albright, a nuclear weapons expert and the president of the Institute for Science and International Security. “Instead, Iran holds its own people hostage over the deadly coronavirus outbreak in a cynical campaign for wholesale sanctions relief.” The willingness of Iran’s leadership to refuse epidemic aid and thus dramatically, and unnecessarily, increase the number of sick and dying Iranians; the willing of the leadership to intensify and deepen the severe economic deprivation and misery across the country – and do all that in order to grow an economically nonviable, menacing uranium enrichment program — “That alone should lead all to consider just what is the real purpose of Iran’s enrichment program,” Albright writes.
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RulesAs States Reopen, Tensions Flare Between the Rule Followers and Rule Breakers
As countries reopen their economies, tensions escalate between those who believe it is safe now to resume normal business activity – and even ignore social distancing and the need to wear face masks – and those who prefer a more cautious, slower path toward something resembling pre-coronavirus life. These differences aren’t just random personality types; they reflect our primal social mindsets – what I call “tight” and “loose” mindsets. And unless these differences are better understood, it will be that much more difficult to navigate life under COVID-19.
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Protective gearTaking a Cue from Nature to Create Bulletproof Coatings
Shrimp, lobsters and mushrooms may not seem like great tools for the battlefield, but three engineers from the University of Houston are using chitin – a derivative of glucose found in the cellular walls of arthropods and fungi – and 3D printing techniques to produce high-impact multilayered coatings that can protect soldiers against bullets, lasers, toxic gas and other dangers.
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DisastersDisaster Responders Grapple with Planning for Extreme Weather in the Time of COVID-19
Last week the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an above-normal 2020 hurricane season, with the possibility of three to six major hurricanes this summer looming over millions of Americans. In Michigan, record rainfall caused two dams to fail in quick succession, triggering an evacuation of over 10,000 nearby residents. In the time of COVID-19, crowding into an emergency shelter with thousands of others seems unsafe, if not impossible.
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HurricanesThe USGS Prepares to Respond During the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season starts1 June, and the U.S. Geological Survey says it is prepared to provide science that can help guide efforts to protect lives and property if a major storm makes landfall this season. USGS brings many capabilities to help communities deal with hurricanes: the ability to forecast coastal change; track storm surge, river and stream levels and flow; capture high-resolution ground elevation and topographic data; create detailed maps that can be used by disaster teams responding in the aftermath of storms; and measure coastal and inland flooding across entire regions.
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PerspectiveFacebook Knew Its Algorithms Promoted Extremist Groups, but Did Nothing: Report
A Facebook Inc. team had a blunt message for senior executives. The company’s algorithms weren’t bringing people together. They were driving people apart. “Our algorithms exploit the human brain’s attraction to divisiveness,” read a slide from a 2018 presentation. “If left unchecked,” it warned, Facebook would feed users “more and more divisive content in an effort to gain user attention & increase time on platform.” The Wall Street Journal reports that the main reason behind Facebook’s decision to do nothing was the fear that any content moderation measures would disproportionately affect right-wing pages, politicians, and other parts of the user base that drove up engagement. The company also wanted to stave off accusations of bias against conservative posters.
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Our picksISIS Resurgence | Vaccination and Coronavirus | WhatsApp Alternative, and more
· How China Is Planning to Win Back the World
· Rubio Warns Fellow Republicans of Russian Disinformation amid Push to Probe Obama Officials
· Feds Charge Ex-Venezuelan Politician with Recruiting Terrorists to Attack U.S. Interests
· The Children Left Behind in West Africa’s Conflict-Torn Regions
· Coronavirus Claims Life of Sweden’s Leading Terror Recruiter
· ISIS Prisoners Threaten U.S. Mission in Northeastern Syria
· Vaccination and Coronavirus: Where the Public Good Clashes with Choice and Freedom
· Israeli Cyber Chief: Major Attack on Water Systems Thwarted
· Deepfakes Are Going to Wreak Havoc on Society. We Are Not Prepared.
· Is This New Signal Feature Enough to Make You Ditch WhatsApp?
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China syndromeCanada-Detained Senior Huawei Executive a Step Closer to Being Extradited to U.S.
A Canadian judge has rejected efforts by a senior Huawei executive to evade extradition to the United States to face a series of charges. Meng Wanzhou was arrested in December 2018 on a U.S. warrant while on a stopover at the Vancouver international airport. Meng is charged with lying to prospective investors by hiding the fact that Huawei was selling communication gear to Iran in breach of U.S. sanctions. The Canadian investors would have been legally and financially exposed to U.S. penalties because their investment in Huawei would have made them unwitting participants in breaching the sanctions.
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ExtremismU.S. Domestic Islamist Extremism 2019
There was a 50 percent increase in arrests and plots linked to domestic Islamist extremism in 2019, according to data released last week by ADL’s Center on Extremism. There were a total of 30 arrests linked to domestic Islamist extremism, nine of which were for terror plots. Of the nine individuals arrested for plotting attacks, seven were U.S. citizens. While there were no attacks or murders linked to domestic Islamist extremism last year, the findings indicate that Islamist extremism still poses a significant threat to the United States.
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ExtremismGermany Sees Rise in Anti-Semitic, Political Crimes
Germany saw a rise both far-right and far-left crimes in 2019, Interior Minister Horst Seehofer announced at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday. The country’s police recorded just over 41,000 cases of politically motivated crime last year, representing a rise of 14.2 percent compared to 2018, when there were just over 36,000. “The biggest threat comes from the far-right, we have to see that clearly,” Seehofer said.
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WildfiresWildfires New Algorithm Predicts the Difficulty in Fighting Fire
When facing an uncontrolled fire blazing through hundreds of hectares, many questions arise that need urgent answers: Where should we start? What place presents less difficulty? What areas are already lost? How can we prioritize management tasks? Researchers have developed an algorithm which is able to respond to these questions and has turned mathematics into a real ally for firefighting.
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FloodsRising Tide: Seeking Solutions to S.C.’s Mounting Nuisance Floods
While a rising tide may lift all boats, it spells trouble for South Carolina coastal communities where flooding has already long been a fact of life. Low-lying areas such as the state’s more than 2,000 miles of coastline are increasingly prone to floods and storm surge as sea levels rise — driven by a more variable global climate system. Researchers are examining green solutions to help those communities fight back.
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Climate crisisApril 2020 Was Earth’s 2nd Hottest April on Record
Global warming is continuing unabated, with April becoming the third month in a row to rank second-hottest on record for the globe — after the year kicked off with the hottest January ever recorded in 141 years of record-keeping. The average global temperature in April was 1.91 degrees F (1.06 degrees C) above the 20th-century average.
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PerspectiveMapping the China Debate
The debate over U.S. foreign policy toward China is often reduced into the usual hawk-versus-dove metaphor. Hawks see U.S.-China great power competition as requiring a more aggressive posture, while doves worry about the downsides of an adversarial relationship. Ganesh Sitaraman writes that this dualist frame glosses over the fact that neither camp has a shared set of views. Rather, both hawks and doves contain a variety of subgroups—and some subgroups disagree with others on critical policy questions. “But without tractable categories for analysis, the debate over policy toward China is too often imprecise and confusing.”
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Our picksSelf-Screening at Airports | Hackers' Pivot to Medical Espionage | Pandemic & WWIII, and more
· How the Pandemic Is Helping the Military Prep for World War III
· COVID-19 Infodemic: EU Grapples with Conspiracies
· TSA Considers Temperature Screening, Thermal Imaging
· Passenger Self Screening Systems for Aviation Checkpoint
· DHS’s Cyber Division Has Stepped Up Protections for Coronavirus Research, Official Says
· Defense Department Cuts Funding for Border Wall Section in Yuma
· How 9/11 Changes the Way the Federal Government Manages Crises
· Lessons from Operation “Denver,” the KGB’s Massive AIDS Disinformation Campaign
· Hurricanes and Other Extreme Weather Disasters Prompt Some People to Move and Trap Others in Place
· Inside Hackers’ Pivot to Medical Espionage
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TerrorismIS Returnees Should Be Charged with War Crimes: EU Agency
More than 13,000 citizens of European countries traveled to Syria and Iraq to join, fight, or work with ISIS. In addition to former fighters, this figure includes women and children. A new report from an EU-backed genocide investigation body says that adding war crimes and genocide to terrorism charges for IS fighters returning to the EU will lead to tougher sentences and “more justice” for victims.
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TerrorismHow the Coronavirus Increases Terrorism Threats in the Developing World
As the coronavirus reaches developing countries in Africa and Asia, the pandemic will have effects beyond public health and economic activity. As the disease wreaks its havoc in areas poorly equipped to handle its spread, terrorism likely will increase there as well.
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CrimeAs Crime Dips Worldwide, Agile Syndicates Adapt to Pandemic
Countries around the world are reporting a dip in criminal activity. Due to stay-at-home orders and fewer opportunities for crime, there has been a noticeable decline in burglary, assault, murder, robbery and grand larceny. But law enforcement officials and analysts say a second look reveals a more complicated and disturbing picture. Cybercrime has exploded, with mounting reports of an increase in ransomware attacks. Headline crime may have dropped, and the statistics may have improved, but analysts say that as the pandemic reorders geopolitics and economics, it is doing the same in the world of crime.
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Countering counterfeitsHigh-Security Identification that Cannot Be Counterfeited
High-security identification should be exceptionally resistant to counterfeiting. Unfortunately, identity thieves eventually learn how to duplicate even highly complex patterns. The only way to permanently defeat identity thieves is to create a pattern that is impossible to duplicate.
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ResilienceNeeded: A New Approach to U.K. Resilience
Experts are calling for a new approach to U.K. resilience. They believe that as well as lessons learnt from the response to COVID-19 there is a much wider lesson to be learnt about how the U.K. identifies, prepares and responds to threats and risks, such as to our safety, our national security and from climate change.
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ResilienceHurricanes: From Resilience to Adaptation
Natural disasters are getting worse. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration the years 2016, 2017 and 2018 have been historic: in each of those years, the average number of disasters costing at least $1 billion was more than double the long-term average. As the number and cost of disasters continue to increase, communities are looking for ways to adapt and become more resilient.
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More headlines
The long view
PerspectiveCoronavirus Disease 2019: The Harms of Exaggerated Information and Non‐Evidence‐Based Measures
Those arguing in favor of lockdowns say that postponing the epidemic wave (“flattening the curve”) gains time to develop vaccines and reduces strain on the health system, which otherwise might be overwhelmed. John P. A. Ioannidis writes in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation, however, that vaccines take many months (or even years) to develop and test properly. “Maintaining lockdowns for many months may have even worse consequences than an epidemic wave that runs an acute course,” he writes. “Focusing on protecting susceptible individuals may be preferable to maintaining countrywide lockdowns long-term.” He also notes that different coronaviruses actually infect millions of people every year, and they are common especially in the elderly and in hospitalized patients with respiratory illness in the winter. The only unique aspect of this year’s coronavirus outbreak is the unprecedented attention it has received in the media.
PerspectiveU.S. Intelligence Warned in November that Coronavirus Spreading in China Could Be “Cataclysmic Event”: Report
President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that his administration could not have prepared for the pandemic because no government agency could have known that such an out-of-the-blue outbreak would happen. Justin Coleman writes that the president’s claims are false. The U.S. intelligence community began to warn about a global epidemic in November, saying that the outbreak in China could develop into a “cataclysmic event,” and policymakers, decisionmakers, and the National Security Council at the White House were repeatedly briefed on the issue. The coronavirus first appeared in the President’s Daily Brief (PDB) of intelligence matters — placed on the president’s desk every morning — in early January.
PerspectiveCoronavirus Social Distancing Presents Special Challenges to Spies
While the COVID-19 public health crisis grabs the headlines and kills tens of thousands, state-actors and transnational terrorist groups continue to purloin data, spread disinformation and plan terrorist attacks. Jason M. Blazakis writes that the U.S. national security community’s ability to detect threats may be less than optimal because Human intelligence (HUMINT) collection — a key tool to combat terrorism — is impaired during COVID-19.
PerspectiveDon’t Believe the COVID-19 Models: That’s Not What They’re for.
Since the onset of the coronavirus crisis, governments, analysts, and health organizations have released different statistical models addressing the disease – and its numerical manifestations: the number of people likely to be infected; hospitalized; treated in the ICUs; or die. Different models offer different numbers and different trajectories. Which one of them is right? Zeynep Tufecki writes that “The answer is both difficult and simple. Here’s the difficult part: There is no right answer. But here’s the simple part: Right answers are not what epidemiological models are for.” The most important function of epidemiological models is as a simulation, a way to see our potential futures ahead of time, and how that interacts with the choices we make today. Thus, epidemiological models do not give us certainty – they give us something much more important: “agency to identify and calibrate our actions with the goal of shaping our future.”
PerspectivePandemics and the U.S. Military: Lessons from 1918
The novel coronavirus will hit the U.S. military and its allies hard — how hard will depend on a number of variables, some having to do with the virus itself (how and to what extent it mutates, whether it comes back in subsequent waves, etc.) and others having to do with what measures militaries take to protect themselves. Michael Shurkin writes that, fortunately, we have a historical example that could offer some clues on how the virus might affect the military, and the policy choices that at some point today’s military leaders may face. He is referring to the 1918 influenza epidemic — commonly referred to as the Spanish flu.
PerspectiveHow to Keep the New Coronavirus from Being Used as a Terrorist Weapon
The possibility that extremist groups may attempt to deliberately spread SARS-CoV-2—the virus causing the current pandemic—should not be ignored. In fact, one of the primary limiting factors to such an attack—recruiting humans willing to infect themselves—does not apply in this case; potential perpetrators would come from the ranks of those already infected with the virus. We are faced, therefore, with a genuinely challenging task: preemption.
PerspectiveU.S. Intelligence Reports from January and February Warned about a Likely Pandemic
The U.S. intelligence community was issuing ominous, classified warnings in January and February about the global danger posed by the coronavirus while President Donald Trump and lawmakers who support him played down the threat and failed to take action that might have slowed the spread of the pathogen, according to U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence community’s reporting. White House officials told Shane Harris, Greg Miller, Josh Dawsey, and Ellen Nakashima of the Washington Post that one of the main reasons for Trump’s false and misleading statements in January and February was the fact that he chose to believe China’s President Xi Jingping rather than the U.S. intelligence community on the issue of the coronavirus. During January and February, China was still adamantly denying that there was any epidemic spreading in China.
PerspectiveRight-Wing Extremists’ New Weapon
The 9 October 2019 attack on a synagogue in Halle, in eastern Germany, highlights terrorists’ growing affinity for homemade firearms as a means for leaderless resistance, a decentralized strategy of guerrilla warfare popularized by Ku Klux Klan member Louis Beam. Eric Woods write that “This presents particular legal challenges to the United States, more so than other countries. The United States has an idiosyncratic approach to homemade production of firearms, rooted in its history as a frontier country where informal networks of artisan producers existed for decades before federal armories.”
Perspective: Designer pathogensIs There a Role for the Biological Weapons Convention in Oversight of Lab-Created Potential Pandemic Pathogens?
Fourteen labs in the United States are working on creating mammalian-airborne-transmissible, highly-pathogenic, avian-influenza live viruses. These viruses are examples of lab-created potentially pandemic pathogens that bring up questions reflecting real concerns: Should details of this dual-use research be published? Could lab-created potentially pandemic pathogens be accidentally released from a laboratory into the community and seed a human pandemic? Could they be employed as biological weapons? The probability of accidental release into the community from one of the laboratories in this research enterprise is uncomfortably high. For these and other lab-created potentially pandemic pathogens, just one laboratory-infected researcher could seed a pandemic. Furthermore, a laboratory worker with hostile intent could introduce a potentially pandemic pathogen into the community.
PerspectiveState Pushes to List White Supremacist Group as Terrorist Org
The State Department is pushing to designate at least one violent white supremacist group as a foreign terrorist organization, an unprecedented move which national security experts say would be a big step toward fighting a growing threat on U.S. soil.
PerspectiveWest Africa’s Democratic Progress is Slipping Away, Even as Region’s Significance Grows
Rising authoritarianism is curtailing individual freedoms around the globe. Jon Temin and Isabel Linzer write that in an alarming development, however, the region that showed the fastest decline in political rights and civil liberties last year was West Africa, which had long been a driver of democratic gains. The warning signs have failed to spur corrective action.
PerspectiveIf We Build It (They Will Break In)
Attorney General William Barr has staked his ground in the long-running debate over law enforcement access to encrypted communications. Last fall, Barr criticized end-to-end encryption as “enabling dangerous criminals to cloak their communications and activities behind an essentially impenetrable digital shield.” As the debate continues, commentators and policymakers often overlook a historical example of the problems with law enforcement access.
PerspectiveRandom Toxicity? What’s Going on in @benjaminwittes’s Mentions
Benjamin Wittes, the editor of Lawfare, had supported Brett Kavanaugh’s 2018 nomination to the Supreme Court early on, said nice things about him, and defended him against allegations he thought were spurious. But though he publicly changed his position after Christine Blasey Ford came forward and testified, he writes that ever since, every twit of his, regardless of its topic, is responded to with hundreds or even thousands of angry twits, with practically identical wording, accusing him of having been a “Buddy of Kavanaugh.” Matters only got worse when he supported, albeit tepidly, the appointment of Bill Barr for Attorney General. Who is behind these thousands of similar twits?
PerspectiveSpies, Election Meddling, And Disinformation: Past and Present
Calder Walton writes that following Russia’s “sweeping and systematic” attack on the 2016 U.S. presidential election—which was intended to support Moscow’s favored candidate, Donald J. Trump, and undermine his opponent, Hillary Clinton—the media frequently labeled the operation “unprecedented.” “The social-media technologies that Russia deployed in its cyber-attack on the United States in 2016 were certainly new,” he writes, “but Russia’s strategy was far from unusual. In fact, the Kremlin has a long history of meddling in U.S. and other Western democratic elections and manufacturing disinformation to discredit and divide the West.”
PerspectiveDigital Threats to Democracy
A new study surveyed hundreds of technology experts about whether or not digital disruption will help or hurt democracy by 2030. Of the 979 responses, about 49 percent of these respondents said use of technology “will mostly weaken core aspects of democracy and democratic representation in the next decade,” while 33 percent said the use of technology “will mostly strengthen core aspects of democracy.”
PerspectiveRussia Knows Just Who to Blame for the Coronavirus: America
The coronavirus outbreak has been accompanied by an avalanche of conspiracy theories about the outbreak. “But in Russia the misinformation has been particularly pointed. Russia’s spin doctors have capitalized on the fear and confusion of the epidemic to point the blame at the United States,” Amy McKinnong writers. McKinnon notes that the Russian messaging fits a now well-established pattern in that it doesn’t look to persuade audiences of a single alternative truth, because “That would take effort, planning, and persuasion.” Rather, Kremlin propaganda specialists produce “a steady stream of underdeveloped, sometimes contradictory conspiracy theories intended to exhaust and confuse viewers, making them question the very notion of objective truth itself.”