NUCLEAR THREATSRussian Attack on, Takeover of Ukraine Plant Ramps Up Nuclear Threat
Russia’s attack last Friday on a nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine has heightened concerns of a nuclear catastrophe in the region, and not only as a result of unintended leaks or possible future attacks on Ukraine’s three remaining nuclear plants. Statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have further deepened worries that Russia may seek to turn material in captured reactors into “dirty bombs.”
Russia’s attack on and takeover of a nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine on Friday has heightened concerns of a nuclear catastrophe in the region. Beyond fears of unintended leaks in possible future attacks on Ukraine’s three remaining nuclear plants, menacing statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Sergey Lavrov, minister of foreign affairs, have spurred worries that Russia may seek to turn captured reactors into “dirty bombs.”
To understand how U.S. and Western intelligence agencies view Russia’s actions, the Harvard Gazette’s Christina Pazzanese spoke with Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, a senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs who served as director of intelligence and counterintelligence at the Department of Energy for three years after leading the government’s global nuclear counterterrorism efforts during a distinguished 23-year career at the CIA. The interview has been edited for clarity and length.
Christina Pazzanese: How are Western intelligence services looking at this incident?
Rolf Mowatt-Larssen: I don’t think it’s surprising that part of the Russian invasion plans include seizing and controlling all of Ukraine’s nuclear assets. This is a very predictable move on their part. It was clearly a big mistake on the Russian side to fire at the facility. I don’t know if that’s because they received any fire — the situation on the ground is very murky. And that’s the great danger the fog of war introduces.
Pazzanese: Does the seizure of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant suggest that Putin may use Ukraine’s nuclear plants as tactical weapons?
Mowatt-Larssen: It’s clear that the Russians want to control all these sites. They’re going to seize all strategic assets — infrastructure, power — in Ukraine as the invading army takes control. Everyone should have expected that they would want to control these sites.
Pazzanese: Does the fact that the attack came so early in the conflict change expectations of Western intelligence services for what may happen next?
Mowatt-Larssen: I don’t think it changes anything, but it came as a big surprise, certainly to me and I think to others. It seems wildly inappropriate at this point in the war. I think it even caught many people on the Russian side, maybe even in the defense side, unprepared, unguarded. That was a very dangerous escalation right at the start of this.