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IRAN’S NUKESIran Could Make Fuel for Nuclear Bomb in Less Than 2 Weeks: Gen. Milley
Iran could make enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb in “less than two weeks” and could produce a nuclear weapon in “several more months,” according to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley. The 2015 nuclear deal signed by the Obama administration increased Iran’s “breakout” time – that is, the time required to produce one nuclear weapon once a decision to do has been made — to about twelve months, but the Trump administration’s 2018 decision unilaterally to withdraw from the deal has allowed Iran to reduce the breakout time to about two weeks.
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IRAN’S NUKESSurvey of Iran’s Advanced Centrifuges - March 2023
Iran continues to deploy advanced centrifuges at its three enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow in violation of the limitations outlined in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). InFebruary 2021, Iran stopped providing declarations about its production and inventory of centrifuge rotor tubes, bellows, and rotor assemblies, and blocked the IAEA access to IAEA cameras recording activities in the enrichment facilities. In June 2022, Iran removed the IAEA cameras from the enrichment facilities, so no recordings exist. Consequently, the IAEA has had no ability to take inventory.
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IRAQ INVASIONThe Iraq Invasion, Twenty Years Later
Last week marked the 20th anniversary of the United States-led invasion of Iraq. Code-named “Operation Iraqi Freedom” by the George W. Bush administration, the goal was to eliminate weapons of mass destruction, topple Saddam Hussein, and remake Iraq into a democracy. What lessons should we learn from the war and its aftermath?
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COVID ORIGINSCOVID-19 Origins: New Evidence, and More Politics
Last week, researchers released a report linking SARS-CoV-2 to six near-complete samples of raccoon-dog mitochondrial DNA sold at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan. The report says that “These results provide potential leads to identifying intermediate hosts of SARS-CoV-2 and potential sources of human infections in the market.”
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CYBERSECURITYWhat Is the National Cybersecurity Strategy? What the Biden Administration Has Changed
On 2 March 2023 the Biden administration released its first National Cybersecurity Strategy. Some of the key provisions in the Strategy relate to the private sector, both in terms of product liability and cybersecurity insurance. It also aims to reduce the cybersecurity burden on individuals and smaller organizations. It provides some innovative ideas that could strengthen U.S. cybersecurity in meaningful ways and help modernize America’s technology industry, both now and into the future.
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CYBERSECURITYIs Your Cybersecurity Strategy Undermined by These Six Common Pitfalls?
Many security specialists harbor misconceptions about lay users of information technology, and these misconceptions can increase an organization’s risk of cybersecurity breaches. These issues include ineffective communications to lay users and inadequately incorporating user feedback on security system usability.
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EMERGENCY COMMUNICATIONChanneling NEXTGEN TV to Help Responders Answer the Call
A natural disaster strikes, vehicles collide on a snowy highway, a 5-alarm fire blazes through the night. For first responders, every second counts. DHS S&T is collaborating on a new effort to arm agencies with a digital alerting system that taps into NEXTGEN public TV broadcasting technologies to deliver emergency dispatches faster.
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OUR PICKSDecades of Lax Rules Enable Train Disasters | The Polarized Pandemic | ‘The Last of Us’ May Already Be Here, and more
· How Decades of Lax Rules Enable Train Disasters
Not much is stopping a catastrophe like the one in East Palestine from happening again· Utility Player: California’s Disastrous Electricity Policy
PG&E is the largest energy utility in the United States. It’s also behind the greatest utility-caused tragedy.· Squeezed by Investigations, Trump Escalates Violent Rhetoric
Trump warned any indictments brought against him may lead to “potential death & destruction” around the country· Far-Right Activists Wary of “Trap” after Trump Calls for Protests
Some Trump supporters fear Trump’s possible indictment is an elaborate government trap to arrest them· Cyber Warfare is Upon Us: Why the Next Generation of ‘War Games’ so Important
After September 11, 2001, the nature of modern warfare and the way we think about our enemies changed· OK, But Where Will the Next Pandemic Come From?
Assessing the origins of a pandemic is a difficult but critically important task· The Polarized Pandemic
COVID-19 has contributed to the fragmentation of domestic and international politics· The Real Horrors of ‘The Last of Us’ May Already Be Here
The drama about a post-apocalyptic, zombie-infested America may describe the present, not the future· “We’ve Lost the Aqueduct”: How Severe Flooding Threatens a Los Angeles Water Lifeline
Struggling to maintain the city’s Eastern Sierra aqueduct
· Six Oath Keepers Convicted in Connection with January 6 U.S. Capitol Riot
The high-level convictions for four defendants is another significant win for the Justice Department -
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WORLD ROUNDUPEU Weighs Changing Relations with China | North Korea Tests Underwater Nuclear Drone | India’s Democracy in Decline, and more
· Netanyahu’s Legal Crusade Is Sparking a Military Backlash in Israel
Israel is currently going through its most serious constitutional and political crisis since its establishment 75 years ago· ‘Pandora’s Box’: EU Weighs Changing Relations with China
Not everyone in Brussels believes decoupling from China is necessary· Denmark Probes Mystery Object Near Nord Stream Pipelines
A mysterious object was placed directly on the seabednext to the pipeline· North Korea Tests Underwater Nuclear Drone
The drone will destroy targets using large radioactive waves through underwater explosions· Why Latin America Will Stay Nonaligned
Latin American governments are aligned with the U.S. and Western Europe but not overly so· India’s Ruling Party Just Kicked a Major Rival Out of Parliament — and Sparked a New Crisis
Rahul Gandhi’s expulsion from the Lok Sabha is the latest sign of Indian democracy’s decline· World Is on Brink of Catastrophic Warming, U.N. Climate Change Report Says
Withing the next ten years, the planet will be pushed past the point of catastrophic warming -
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CHINA WATCHShould the U.S. Ban TikTok? Can It? A Cybersecurity Expert Explains the Risks the App Poses and the Challenges to Blocking It
A full ban of TikTok raises a number of questions: What data privacy risk does TikTok pose? What could the Chinese government do with data collected by the app? Is its content recommendation algorithm dangerous? And is it even possible to ban an app?
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EXTREMISMAntisemitic Incidents in the U.S. in 2022
Antisemitic incidents in the U.S. in 2022 reached an all-time high last year with a total of 3,697 incidents of assault, harassment and vandalism tracked by ADL’s Audit of Antisemitic Incidents. This represents the largest number of incidents against Jews in the U.S., recorded by ADL since 1979.
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EXTREMISMHard-Right Social Media Activities Lead to Civil Unrest: Study
Does activity on hard-right social media lead to civil unrest? With the emergence and persistent popularity of hard-right social media platforms such as Gab, Parler, and Truth Social, it is important to understand the impact they are having on society and politics.
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ARGUMENT: GUARDING DEMOCRACYHow Jan. 6 Committee Staffers Have Filled in the Blanks
According to Tucker Carlson, the riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, was not an attempted putsch but instead “mostly peaceful chaos.” Quinta Jurecic writes that the Fox News host’s revisionist take on Jan. 6 has so far received widespread condemnation, and that among the voices criticizing Carlson’s attempted rewriting of history have been staffers formerly on the Jan. 6 committee.
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EXPLOSION PREVENTIONPreventing Fires and Explosions
Lines in natural gas grids have to be maintained and serviced regularly. This entails using flares to vent the natural gas. With FlareSimulator, research scientists at the Fraunhofer Institute for Factory Operation and Automation IFF have developed an assistive tool that calculates the correct distance of flares to houses, trees and other nearby objects. This makes it easy to maintain minimum distances and prevent potential hazards and explosions.
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CRITICAL MINERALSNew Method Helps Locate Deposits of Critical Metals
The global shift to a carbon-free energy system is set to drive a huge increase in the demand for rare or limited earth minerals. This presents an urgent need to locate new sustainable sources of these elements. New technique could help locate new deposits of critical metals needed to enable the green-energy transition.
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LANDSLIDESAn Early Warning System for Landslides Protects Sitka, Alaska
A hard rain was rattling against the rooftops of Sitka, Alaska, as day broke on August 18, 2015. Just before 10 a.m., a hillside gave way. A river of mud, rocks, and broken trees surged down the slope and crashed through the subdivision.
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AGRICULTURE SECURITYIt’s Time to Talk about Food and Agriculture Security
When large scale threats affect food and agriculture supplies, they become matters of national security. Many different threats to our food and agriculture sector exist, and any disruption to the supply chain can cause shortages at your local grocery store and limit the availability of food.
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OUR PICKSAre We Prepared for a North Korean Nuclear Attack? | A ‘Parade’ of Anti-Semites on Broadway | A Water System So Broken, and more
· A ‘Parade’ of Anti-Semites on Broadway
Anti-Jewish bigots steal the show in the revived musical. And that’s why it works· A Water System So Broken That One Pipe Leaks 5 Million Gallons a Day
Jackson’s water system has been flirting with collapse for decades· NYC Bike Path Terrorist to Serve Life in Prison After Jury Fails to Reach Unanimous Decision on Death Penalty
A unanimous decision would have been required to sentence Sayfullo Saipov to death· Are We Prepared for a North Korean Nuclear Attack?
There is no attractive offensive military option against North Korea available to the United States· 7 Experts on Trump’s Call for Protests and Social Media Threat Models
Trump’s call for protests “echoed his rhetoric before his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021” -
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WORLD ROUNDUPDon’t Panic About Taiwan | Israeli Democracy Faces a Mortal Threat | A ‘New Cold War’ Looms in Africa, and more
· Israeli Democracy Faces a Mortal Threat
If Netanyahu and his coalition have their way, my country could deteriorate into a dictatorship· The U.S. Has a Troublesome Asian Ally Against China
The Philippines is using U.S. military infrastructure to commit human rights violations· A ‘New Cold War’ Looms in Africa as U.S. Pushes Against Russian Gains
As in Ukraine, U.S. is sharing intelligence information with African governments· Don’t Panic About Taiwan
Alarm over a Chinese invasion could become a self-fulfilling prophecy· U.S. Trains West African Militaries as Jihadi Threat Spreads
Extremist violence in West Africa’s Sahel region spreads· If China Cracked U.S. Encryption, Why Would It Tell Us?
Some day, computer scientists will break RSA encryption. That day is not yet here. -
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COVID ORIGINSReport Describes SARS-CoV-2 Market Sequences, Biden Signs COVID Intel Declassification Bill
In two major developments regarding investigations into the source of SARS-CoV-2, an international research group that examined genetic sequences from the animal market detailed their findings in a new report, and President Joe Biden signed a bill to declassify US intelligence on virus origins.
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ARGUMENT: COVID’S ORIGINSA Major Clue to COVID’s Origins Is Just Out of Reach
Last week, the ongoing debate about COVID-19’s origins had yet another plot twist added to it. A French evolutionary biologist stumbled across a trove of genetic sequences extracted from swabs collected from surfaces at a wet market in Wuhan, China, shortly after the pandemic began. Katherine J. Wu writes that the sequences bolster the case for the pandemic having purely natural roots. “But what might otherwise have been a straightforward story on new evidence has rapidly morphed into a mystery centered on the origins debate’s data gaps.” Wu says that public access to the sequences was locked, and, as a result, a key set of data which could have shored up the case for a purely animal origin became unavailable to scientists.
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ELECTION SECURITYMoving to Evidence-Based Elections
In most jurisdictions things went relatively smoothly in the November 2022 midterms, but serious issues, both technical and political, remain. Elections may be made more transparent and secure through the use of voter-marked paper ballots and rigorous postelection audits.
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The long view
SPACE WARAces-High Frontier: Space War in 2053
By Jeffrey Becker
There are good reasons why the best science and speculative fiction ranks high on the reading lists of many military scholars and leaders. Done well, speculative military fiction projects thoughtfully beyond the here and now, and renders real operational and strategic concepts in terms of plausible future technologies.
MASS SHOOTINGSU.S. Secret Service Report Examines Five Years of Mass Violence Data
The U.S. Secret Service National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC) the other day released a comprehensive report examining 173 incidents of targeted violence and highlighting the observable commonalities among the attackers.
GUNSWhat Is Microstamping, and Can It Help Solve Shootings?
By Chip Brownlee
Laws to expand the technology’s use have passed in three states and the District of Columbia. But some are questioning its effectiveness.
MASS SHOOTINGAre Mass Shootings Contagious?
By Chip Brownlee
High-fatality shootings are becoming more frequent, raising the question of whether or not mass shootings are contagious, that is, whether or not one mass shooter copycats the actions of an earlier shooter. These questions arise especially when several mass shooting events are clustered in time. The evidence is not clear-cut either way.
INFRASTRUCTURE ROTECTIONCreating Buildings That Can Withstand the Most Extreme Stress Loads
By Sølvi Normannsen
Combined ballistic impacts pose a major challenge for engineers who build structures that must withstand extreme stresses. An explosion can hurtle fragments and debris at enormous velocities so they strike the surroundings. Then comes the shock wave. It’s a scary combination.
PLUM ISLANDPlum Island One Step Closer to Permanent Preservation
Plum Island is one step closer to permanent preservation. Plum Island is currently owned by the United States government and has been home to the Plum Island Animal Disease Center for nearly 70 years. The Department of Homeland Security is in the process of excessing the island, opening it up for transfer to another entity.
ARGUMENT: MISUSING HISTORYThe Triumphs and Tribulations of Peter the Great: What Putin’s View of 18th-Century Warfare Can Tell Us About Ukraine
As is the case with most heads of state, Putin is fairly upbeat when discussing his country’s heroes in public. In his speeches, Putin primarily focuses on two eras: the portion of the reign of Peter the Great that lasted from 1700 to 1721 and Catherine the Great’s reign between 1768 and 1783. “In the long arc of 18th-century Russian history, this would be a bit like talking about the American Revolutionary War by mentioning Lexington and Concord and then skipping to Yorktown,” Alexander Burns writes. “The progression may be correct, but a lot of the nuances and complexities are lost.”
ARGUMENT: DEMOCRACY WATCHJohn Eastman and the Limits of Bar Discipline
The memos prepared by John Eastman constitute some of the most disturbing documentation of the plot to overturn the 2020 election in favor of Donald Trump. Eastman’s legal analysis sets out a range of supposed options by which swing-state electors from states supporting Joe Biden could be disregarded, thus handing Trump a second term in office. The State Bar of California announced that it will be seeking his disbarment from the practice of law over his role fomenting the Jan. 6 insurrection. Eastman “has now entered the select club of lawyers finally facing bar discipline for their involvement in efforts to overturn the 2020 election,” Quinta Jurecic writes.
DEFAULT DANGERThis Debt Ceiling Showdown Is Especially Risky
On Thursday, 19 January 2022, the federal government hit its $31.4 trillion debt limit. That means that it can’t borrow any additional money to meet its obligations, which include everything from issuing Social Security checks to paying interest on Treasury bonds. Past fights over the borrowing limit didn’t spark a financial crisis. This time could be different, according to two experts.
DEFAULT DANGERU.S. Debt Default Could Trigger Dollar’s Collapse – and Severely Erode America’s Political and Economic Might
By Michael Humphries
Brinkmanship over the debt ceiling has become a regular ritual. As an economist, I know that defaulting on the national debt would have real-life consequences. Even the threat of pushing the U.S. into default has an economic impact. In August 2021, the mere prospect of a potential default led to an unprecedented downgrade of the nation’s credit rating, hurting America’s financial prestige as well as countless individuals, including retirees. And that was caused by the mere specter of default. An actual default would be far more damaging.
FLOOD TRACKINGFloodNet Tracking System Set for Expansion Across All Five NYC Boroughs
FloodNet, the first-ever New York City flood-monitoring network, has received $7.2 million in city funding that will greatly increase the number of monitored flood-prone locations from 31 to 500 over the next five years. The network expansion is slated to begin in February.
MINERALSU.S. Nonfuel Mineral Production Jumps $3.6 Billion in 2022
U.S. mines produced approximately $98.2 billion in nonfuel mineral commodities in 2022—an estimated $3.6 billion increase over the 2021 revised total of $94.6 billion.
BATTERIESNew Sodium, Aluminum Battery Aims to Integrate Renewables for Grid Resiliency
A new battery design could help ease integration of renewable energy into the nation’s electrical grid at lower cost, using Earth-abundant metals.
BATTERIESIlluminating the Barrier to Next-Generation Battery That Charges Very Quickly
By Andrew Myers
In the race for fast-charging, energy-dense lithium metal batteries, researchers discovered why the promising solid electrolyte version has not performed as hoped. This could help new designs – and eventually battery production – avoid the problem.
FATAL FUNGIWarmer Climate May Drive Fungi to Be More Dangerous
The world is filled with tiny creatures that find us delicious. Bacteria and viruses are the obvious bad guys, drivers of deadly global pandemics and annoying infections. But the pathogens we haven’t had to reckon with as much – yet – are the fungi.
FOOD SECURITYFew Island Nations with Potential to Produce Enough Food in a Nuclear Winter
New Zealand is one of only a few island nations that could continue to produce enough food to feed its population in a nuclear winter, researchers have found. The term “nuclear winter” refers to reduced sunlight and cooler temperatures caused by soot in the atmosphere following a nuclear war in the Northern Hemisphere.