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Vaccine cards black marketMandates Give Rise to Booming Black Market for Fake Vaccine Cards
As more organizations demand proof of inoculation against COVID-19, the black market for fake vaccine cards appears to be booming. Legal experts compare phony vaccine cards to counterfeit money or fake drivers’ licenses.
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Aviation securityPilot Association Calls for Flight Deck Barrier Regulation
The world’s leading air-line pilots association has called on the U.S. government to issue a final secondary flight deck barrier regulation which was mandated by Congress nearly three years ago.
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EncryptionPreventing Abuse in Encrypted Communication
Mitigating abuses of encrypted social media communication on outlets such as WhatsApp and Signal, while ensuring user privacy, is a massive challenge on several fronts, including technological, legal, and social.
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Climate challengesDHS, EPA to Enforce Phasedown of Climate-Damaging HFCs
DHS and the EPA will collaborate on guarding against the illegal importation of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). HFCs are potent greenhouse gases with global warming potential that can be thousands of times greater than carbon dioxide.
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EarthquakesEarthquake Expert Who Advised the Haiti Government in 2010: “Why Were Clear Early Warning Signs Missed?”
There have been very few improvements in Haiti’s seismic early warning systems between the 2010 and the 14 August 2021 earthquakes. For example, a seismic network was installed in some private residences in different locations in Haiti. These data can be easily and freely accessed online. But this network has not been efficiently used for early warning alerts. A quick examination of the data revealed that at least two strong motions (with magnitude 4.0 or above) were recorded before August 14 along the Enriquillo Plantain Garden Fault. So the warning signs were there, but nobody – it seems – was looking out for them.
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Energy securityPowerful Clean Energy Available in Our Oceans
Marine energy—clean power generated from ocean currents, waves, tides, and water temperature changes—is still young, but it has the potential to deliver clean, renewable electricity to coastal communities where nearly 40 percent of Americans live. Before that can happen, scientists need to pinpoint which oceanic arteries host the most reliable energy.
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Water securityLowering the High Cost of Desalination
Removing salt and other impurities from sea-, ground- and wastewater could solve the world’s looming freshwater crisis. A suite of analytical tools makes it easier for innovators to identify promising research directions in making saltwater potable.
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Our picksPrivate Eyes in the Sky | Record Increase in Murders in 2020 | Risky Chinese Drones, and more
· U.S., Russian Military Officials Meet amid Concerns about Terrorism Fight
· Extremists Using Video-Game Chats to Spread Hate
· Private Eyes in the Sky
· From 9/11 to 1/6
· FBI Report Likely to Show Record Increase in Murders in 2020
· DHS Launches National Climate Resilience Prize Competitions
· U.S. Government Buying Risky Chinese Drones
· Federal Agencies Warn Companies to Be on Guard against Prolific Ransomware Strain
· 2nd Ransomware Attack on Agricultural Cooperative Points to Food Safety Threat
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ExtremismU.S. Domestic Terrorism Caseload “Exploding”
U.S. national security and law enforcement agencies are battling what they describe as a “significant jump” in threats from domestic terrorists, many of whom are acting on their own and motivated by racial animosity or anti-government ideology.
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ExtremismThe Role of Trust in Deciding Which Terrorist Faction to Join
Research based on interviews with Irish Republican activists has shown that trust plays a greater role than ideology in how members pick sides when terrorist groups splinter. If commitment is primarily social rather than ideological, then counter-narrative or ideological “deprogramming” strategies may not help lure someone away from a group of individuals with whom he or she feels a close personal bond of trust.
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ARGUMENT: Nuclear threshold stateIrreversible: Iran’s Nukes
In 2018 the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran, which the Obama administration had signed in 2015. David Albright and Sarah Burkhard of Institute for Science and International Security write that Iran’s nuclear capabilities now greatly exceed their status in early 2016, when the nuclear deal was implemented. Iran’s breakout time, namely the time needed to produce enough weapon-grade uranium for a single nuclear weapon or explosive device, is on order of one month, which was Iran’s breakout time in late 2014, before the nuclear deal was signed.
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Land minesHarnessing Drones, Geophysics and Artificial Intelligence to Remove Land Mines
Mines and other unexploded ordinance are a worldwide menace; about 100 million devices are thought to be currently scattered across dozens of countries. Aside from putting both wartime and postwar areas off limits to travel, agriculture or anything else, they caused at least 5,500 recorded casualties in 2019; totals in many previous years have been much higher. Some 80 percent of the victims are civilians, and of those, nearly half are children.
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Water securityChanging Climate Increases Need for Water Diplomacy
The dispute between Ethiopia and its neighbors over the massive Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile is but one example of how the climate change-driven growing scarcity of water may soon lead countries to engage in what, a decade ago, British intelligence called “water wars.” These growing tensions need to be tackled in new ways.
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Climate challengesBlocking the Sun to Control Global Warming
It sounds like something out of a bad science fiction movie — artificially blocking sunlight to keep global warming from overheating the Earth. Nevertheless, a small cadre of researchers is studying the option — so that if humankind ever needs to use it, it will be an informed decision.
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Planetary securityHitting a Bullseye with Closed Eyes
Recently NASA updated its forecast of the chances that the asteroid Bennu, one of the two most hazardous known objects in our solar system, will hit Earth in the next 300 years. New calculations put the odds at 1 in 1,750, a figure slightly higher than previously thought. Two statisticians put into perspective the chances of asteroid Bennu striking Earth in next 300 years.
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Our picksDHS in an Evolved Threat Landscape | The Myth of Moderate Jihadists | Who’s Behind Proud Boys
· Wuhan Scientists Planned to Release Coronavirus Particles into Cave Bats, Leaked Papers Reveal
· Huge Hack Reveals Embarrassing Details of Who’s Behind Proud Boys and Other Far-Right Websites
· The Scientist and the A.I.-Assisted, Remote-Control Killing Machine
· Could Somalia Be the Next Afghanistan?
· How America Wasted Its Unipolar Moment
· The Myth of Moderate Jihadists
· Charting a Strategic Path Forward for DHS in an Evolved Threat Landscape
· Islamic Terrorists or Chinese Dissidents? U.S. Grapples with Uyghur Dilemma
· Pharma Companies Defend Dismissal of Terror Case at D.C. Circuit Hearing
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Iran’s nukesAs the West Watches, Iran Enriches Uranium
Iran may now be capable of producing enough weapons-grade uranium for a single nuclear warhead within just a month. While Iran continues to make progress enriching uranium, nuclear diplomacy seems to be stalled.
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RansomwareU.S. Sanctions Russian-Based Cryptocurrency Exchange for Laundering Ransomware Money
A Russian-based cryptocurrency exchange has been sanctioned by the U.S. over its role in facilitating illegal payments from ransomware attacks. U.S. Treasury officials said it was the first sanctions leveled against a cryptocurrency exchange laundering money for cybercriminals.
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Cybersecurity educationNortheastern University Wins New CyberForce Conquer the Hill competition
Critical U.S. infrastructure is increasingly dependent on the internet, making security a high priority. But about 500,000 cybersecurity jobs went unfilled from April 2020 through March, according to CyberSeek, a project from the National Initiative for Cybersecurity Education. To fill that skills gap, CyberForce challenges college teams to build and defend a simulated energy infrastructure from cyberattacks.
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TerrorismAl-Qaida, Islamic State Group Struggle for Recruits
As strange as it may sound, revolutionary Islamist groups suffer from recruitment problems as any other organization does. My research on Islamist terrorism has found that al-Qaida and its rival offshoot, the Islamic State group, have long had chronic difficulties replenishing their ranks.
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ResilienceImproving Florida’s Hurricane Resilience: Alternative Fuel Vehicles, Infrastructure
When events like tropical storms or other unforeseen crises disrupt a state’s primary supply of gasoline and diesel, emergency fleet efforts can become hampered as access to fuel is restricted or completely unavailable.
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FloodsHurricane Ida and Deadly Flash Floods in New York City
On August 29, the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Ida made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 4 storm. In New York City, water inundated subways and basements in a matter of hours. So far, at least 82 storm-related deaths have been reported. Experts are now trying to make sense of Hurricane Ida, its damages, and just how unexpected they were.
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More headlines
The long view
ARGUMENT: Cyber retaliationU.S. Leads Coalition Accusing China of Hacking
On 19 July, the United States joined other countries in condemning the hacking by Chinee government hackers of Microsoft Exchange email server software. Despite the condemnations, there have not been any sanctions against China for its role in the breach, leading critics to charge that the Biden’s response was weak and “not proportionate to the severity of the breach.” Abby Lemert and Eleanor Runde write that “Part of the problem is that escalatory retaliation carries special risks to a highly digitized society like the United States. Accordingly, some commentators assess that Biden’s response is properly calibrated to the risks.”
ARGUMENT: Cyber offenseResponsible Cyber Offense
There is responsible conduct in cyberspace, and there is irresponsible conduct. Perri Adams, Dave Aitel, George Perkovich, and JD Work write that “If the SolarWinds operation was a case of somewhat responsible hacking within the bounds of acceptable state action (even if Russia is far from a responsible actor in cyberspace), the Exchange operation, by contrast, demonstrates how an irresponsibly conducted espionage operation can escalate into collateral damage and instability.” They write that, despite critical preventive efforts, “offensive operations will continue apace in the foreseeable future—conducted by the United States, its allies and its adversaries. The choice is whether and how to engage in them responsibly and minimize cost to societies.”
ARGUMENT: Cyber workforceU.S. Gov. Facing a Severe Cyber Workers Shortage When They Are Needed the Most
The U.S. government is struggling to find and hire cybersecurity workers precisely at the time it needs such workers most in order to protect the government and its cyber systems from an unprecedented, and ever-more-menacing, wave of cyberattacks.
ARGUMENT: Water systems securityWater Systems Vulnerable to Cyberthreats
In February, a hacker tried to manipulate the water utility’s computers in Oldsmar, Fla. so that the level of lye in the water would be raised. Joel Griffin writes that “had the perpetrator not been caught…. this cyber-attack could have resulted in actual physical harm to residents and potentially even deaths. The simplicity of this cyber-attack … also illustrates the gravity of the situation facing water utilities,” as they try to implement contemporary IT security solutions to decades-old equipment ad operational technology.
ARGUMENT: Precautionary principle Ban Use of Affective Computing in Federal Law Enforcement
Affective computing uses algorithms to analyze bodies, faces, and voices to infer human emotion and state of mind. Even though there clearly needs to be more research done on this technology, law enforcement agencies are starting to experiment with it to extract information, detect deception, and identify criminal behavior. Alex Engler says that President Biden should ban affective computing before it starts to threaten civil liberties.
ARGUMENT: Climate & national securityNational Security Agencies Must Include Climate Risks and Their Analyses
The Pentagon and other federal agencies were given a July deadline to draw up plans for potential climate risks, under an executive order by President Biden. Antonio Busalacchi and Sherri Goodman write that such plans are an essential first step, but the greater challenge for national security agencies is to continue to redirect their focus to changing climate conditions that pose a complex, two-pronged threat: social and political instability overseas and damage to U.S. infrastructure.
BOOKSHELF: Health misinformationNew Book Helps Readers Spot Online Health Scams
UBC’s Dr. Bernie Garrett, the author of a new book on health scams, misinformation, and disinformation, says that “Scam marketers are well-versed in modern advertising techniques and the psychology of persuasion. They know all the triggers that can help sell a product.” He adds that, during the COVID period, such scams “definitely have proliferated, and this has been aided by social media… Unfortunately, people can post misinformation on social media with no real consequences.”
ARGUMENT: Strengthening cybersecurityThe Van Buren Decision Is Good News for Cybersecurity
In June, after years of uncertainty, the Supreme Court finally shed some light on the meaning of a notoriously vague law, the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (CFAA). Timothy Edgar writes that one problem with CFAA was that some courts had interpreted the CFAA’s language so broadly. Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s technically informed opinion, which narrowed the scope of CFAA, was a win for civil liberties — and also a victory — not a loss — for cybersecurity. Moreover, Barrett’s opinion “offers a model for how to interpret computer crime laws.”
ARGUMENT: Afghanistan failureWhat Went Wrong for the U.S. in Afghanistan
The Biden administration’s decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan is an admission that the United States has failed in its costly war in Afghanistan. Why has the United States failed? Jason K. Dempsey, who was deployed to Afghanistan as part of the 2009 “surge,” writes that “Luckily for those…. wondering how all the heroism [of American soldiers in Afghanistan] led to an overall outcome in Afghanistan that fell far short of U.S. aspirations, there are two new books that seek to make sense of the war.”
ARGUMENT: Lessons of AfghanistanLearning the Right Lessons from Afghanistan
Gregory Treverton, former Chair of U.S. National Intelligence Council, writes that “The main lesson of Afghanistan should be an easy one by now, after the sweep of events from Vietnam to Iraq: nation-building requires a nation, or at least a competent, committed government. America’s signal successes at nation-building were nation-rebuilding, in the instances of Germany and Japan. It is not just that nation-building is hard, and we don’t do it very well. In Afghanistan there was never any nation to rebuild, only a collection of warring tribes, clans, and sects.”
ARGUMENT: Intelligence failuresAfghanistan, Policy Choices, and Claims of Intelligence Failure
Was the chaotic evacuation from Afghanistan the result of an intelligence failure? David Priess, who served as a CIA analyst in the administrations of Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, writes that to make this judgment, we need answers to many questions. But even if the written records, such as the PDBs, are declassified, “unless and until Joe Biden opens his mind and soul, we are unlikely to understand if he internalized the core judgments in any intelligence documents or briefings.”
Epidemic early warningPath Towards a Global Pathogen Early Warning System
The world’s ability to detect, track, and analyze disease threats has improved considerably over the past several decades, the COVID-19 pandemic drove home a terrible reality: the systems we had in place are still deeply insufficient for halting the rapid spread of a novel pathogen fast enough to prevent a staggering level of damage.
Nuclear powerA First: 3D Printed Nuclear Reactor Components Now Installed at a Nuclear Plant
3D-printed fuel assembly brackets have been installed and are now under routine operating conditions at the Tennessee Valley Authority’s Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Unit 2 in Athens, Alabama.
Chem-bio weaponsParasites Fight Chemical and Biological Weapons
Harnessing parasites to help soldiers and first responders counter chemical and biological weapon attacks in war zones.
EarthquakesEarthquake Forecasts a Step Closer to Reality
Earthquakes — like lightning — strike unpredictably. For decades, scientists have struggled to reliably give forecasts for major earthquake hotspots, but now, an international team of scientists has embarked on a new initiative to do just that.
Radiation detectionGPS-Carrying Rat Snakes Monitor Radiation at Fukushima
Scientists found a new way to keep track of radiation level at the Fukushima Exclusion Zone: rat snakes, which are common in Japan. The snakes’ limited movement and close contact with contaminated soil are key factors in their ability to reflect the varying levels of contamination in the zone.
