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DOMESTIC TERRORISMExtremist Couple Charged in Plot to Destroy Baltimore’s Power Grid
Two extremists have been charged Monday with conspiracy to attack and destroy energy facilities around Baltimore in a plot to “completely destroy” the city. The man, the founder of the neo-Nazi group Atomwaffen, and his accomplice appear to be part of trend among domestic violent extremists to target the U.S. electrical grid. In recent years, DHS and the FBI have discovered several such conspiracies to take down the power system, with the most recent attacks taking place in North Carolina and Washington State.
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SPY BALOONSChinese Spy Balloon Over the U.S.: An Aerospace Expert Explains How the Balloons Work and What They Can See
Balloons are much closer to the ground than any satellites, so they can see even more clearly. And balloons are moving relatively slowly, so they also have a degree of persistence. However, spying is not usually done these days with balloons because they are a relatively easy target and are not completely controllable.
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CHINA WATCHHow Dangerous Is TikTok?
The rapid ascent of the Chinese video-streaming app TikTok has alarmed lawmakers and privacy watchdogs around the world. What are they worried about? Why is TikTok in the crosshairs of so many authorities and monitoring bodies.
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SURVEILLANCEEFF Files Amicus Briefs in Two Important Geofence Search Warrant Cases
Unlike traditional warrants for electronic records, a geofence warrant doesn’t start with a particular suspect or even a device or account; instead police request data on every device in a given geographic area during a designated time period, regardless of whether the device owner has any connection to the crime under investigation. The EFF argues these warrants are unconstitutional “general warrants” because they don’t require police to show probable cause to believe any one device was somehow linked to the crime under investigation.
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POLARIZATIONWhy 1968 Still Matters
A new book argues that perception of the media coverage of the 1968 Democratic National Convention explores gave rise to anger at the media which became part of our culture wars. Matters have moved to a new extreme today, with claims from many quarters that factual reported news is simply fake, with no attempt to demonstrate such assertions. False claims about the 2020 presidential election, for instance, have flourished despite no evidence supporting them.
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TRUTH DECAYDeepfakes Could Create Audience Trust Issues
Deepfakes could ‘shatter’ moviegoers’ trust and lead to big job cuts in the film industry. That’s the verdict from deepfake expert after it was revealed the latest development in the technology is set to be used in “Here,” an upcoming film starring Tom Hanks and directed by Robert Zemeckis.
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PANDEMICSDisease X: How to End Pandemics
A new book tracks how the world can stop future pandemics. It offers a perspective on the COVID-19 response and lays out a roadmap to prepare to beat the next Disease X. The book challenges us to understand continual and growing infectious disease threats, but also offers hope and looks ahead to a pandemic-free future.
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WATER SECURITYClimate Change-Driven Water Crises More Severe Than Previously Thought
The interference of climate change with the planet’s water cycle is a well established fact. New analyses suggest that in many places, runoff responds more sensitively than previously assumed.
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OUR PICKSThe $10 Trillion Case for Decentralized Cybersecurity | The Good News About Vaccine Hesitancy | Software Supply Chain Risk, and more
·· The Inside Story of How the U.S. Shot Down the Chinese Balloon
Intelligence analysts distinguish between secrets and mysteries·· Cybersecurity Budgets Are Going Up. So Why Aren’t Breaches Going Down?
Growing sophistication of hackers is only one of the reasons·· The $10 Trillion Case for Decentralized Cybersecurity
As long as cybersecurity is centralized, it will always fail·· Software Supply Chain Risk Is Growing, but Mitigation Solutions Exist
Software supply chain risk has emerged as a leading concern for private sector firms and government agencies·· Responding to the Firearm Violence Crisis: Are Some Newly Enacted Laws Making Things Worse?
While some restrictive gun laws reduce gun violence, other more-permissive gun laws worsen it·· Could a Chatbot Teach You How to Build a Dirty Bomb?
Despite being programmed to align with human values, could ChatGPT be tricked into doing harm·· The Pentagon Saw a Warship Boondoggle. Congress Saw Jobs.
The Navy wanted to save $4.3 billion over the next five years, but lawmakers were not interested·· An Even Deadlier Pandemic Could Soon Be Here
Bird flu — known more formally as avian influenza — has long hovered on the horizons of scientists’ fears·· The Good News About Vaccine Hesitancy
The future of vaccination in America may be no worse than its recent past -
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WORLD ROUNDUPChina’s Covid Fog | This Is Not 1943 | Britain Is Worse Off Than It Understands, and more
·· Czech Voters Deal a Blow to Populism
The election of Petr Pavel is important to Czechs—and to Americans.·· This Is Not 1943
How Putin twists the history of World War II·· The World’s Most, and Least, Democratic Countries in 2022
The EIU’s global democracy index shows several authoritarian rulers tightened their grip·· Britain Is Much Worse Off Than It Understands
Things weren’t nearly this bad in the 1970s—but the country’s leaders haven’t grasped that yet·· Germany’s Scholz Calls for a New Approach to the Lithium Rush
On a visit to South America, the chancellor pitched partnership rather than exploitation·· Don’t Underestimate Xi’s Ambitions Toward Taiwan, CIA Says
Xi had ordered his military to be ready to conduct an invasion of self-governed Taiwan by 2027··Belgium Looks to Extend Lives of Oldest Nuclear Reactors
Citing a need to “reduce risks in the energy supply”·· In China’s Covid Fog, Deaths of Scholars Offer a Clue
Obituaries of China’s top academics offer clues about the true toll of the outbreak·· In West Bank, Settlers Sense Their Moment After Far Right’s Rise
The most right-wing government in Israel’s history emboldens Jewish settlers -
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CHINA WATCHChina 'Spy Balloon:' Why Doesn't the Pentagon Shoot It Down?
Espionage is all about secrets — keeping and revealing them. But here’s what we can say about the alleged spy balloon.
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ARGUMENT: DEMOCRACY REFORMThe Lessons of the Electoral Count Reform Act: Next Steps in Reform
The passage of the Electoral Count Reform Act (ECRA), which President Biden signed into law on 29 December 2022, suggests there are achievable goals of democracy reform even as polarization retains its grip, we now have a divided government, and a presidential election is less than two years away.
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ARGUMENT: DEMOCRACY WATCHJohn Eastman and the Limits of Bar Discipline
The memos prepared by John Eastman constitute some of the most disturbing documentation of the plot to overturn the 2020 election in favor of Donald Trump. Eastman’s legal analysis sets out a range of supposed options by which swing-state electors from states supporting Joe Biden could be disregarded, thus handing Trump a second term in office. The State Bar of California announced that it will be seeking his disbarment from the practice of law over his role fomenting the Jan. 6 insurrection. Eastman “has now entered the select club of lawyers finally facing bar discipline for their involvement in efforts to overturn the 2020 election,” Quinta Jurecic writes.
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MINERALSU.S. Nonfuel Mineral Production Jumps $3.6 Billion in 2022
U.S. mines produced approximately $98.2 billion in nonfuel mineral commodities in 2022—an estimated $3.6 billion increase over the 2021 revised total of $94.6 billion.
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INFRASTRUCTURE ROTECTIONCreating Buildings That Can Withstand the Most Extreme Stress Loads
Combined ballistic impacts pose a major challenge for engineers who build structures that must withstand extreme stresses. An explosion can hurtle fragments and debris at enormous velocities so they strike the surroundings. Then comes the shock wave. It’s a scary combination.
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WILDFIRESWestern Wildfires Destroyed 246% More Homes and Buildings Over the Past Decade
It can be tempting to think that the recent wildfire disasters in communities across the West were unlucky, one-off events, but evidence is accumulating that points to a trend. In nearly every Western state, more homes and buildings were destroyed by wildfire over the past decade than the decade before, revealing increasing vulnerability to wildfire disasters.
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WATER SECURITYThere’s a Deal to Save the Colorado River — If California Doesn’t Blow It Up
After months of tense negotiation, a half-dozen states have reached an agreement to drastically cut their water usage and stabilize the drought-stricken Colorado River — as long as California doesn’t blow up the deal. The plan would cut water use on the river by roughly a quarter, drying up farms and subdivisions across the Southwest.
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EVsElectric Cars Reach Peak EU Market Share in 2022
Battery electric vehicles have climbed to a record share of new car sales in the EU, albeit still a modest 12.1%. In the last quarter, alternatively powered vehicles outsold petrol and diesel for the first time.
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OUR PICKSStop Passing the Buck on Cybersecurity | DHS & Radicalization | Chinese Espionage on the Great Plains, and more
·· Did the FBI’s Charles McGonigal Help Throw the 2016 Election to Trump?
Trump, thoroughly compromised by Russia, was a grave threat to national security·· Bias and Human Error Played Parts in FBI’s Jan. 6 Failure, Documents Suggest
The FBI wasblinded by a narrow focus on “lone wolf” offenders and a misguided belief that the threat from the far left was as great as that from the far right·· Stop Passing the Buck on Cybersecurity
Why companies must build safety into tech products·· Preparing for Strategic Competition: The Need for Irregular Warfare Professional Military Education
The U.S. lacks the operational level and campaign planning necessary for irregular warfare above the tactical level·· USCIS Strategic Plan Takes Three-Pronged Approach to Building a More Resilient, Efficient Agency
Improving efficiency while pulling the agency out of its recent history of crippling backlogs·· Homeland Security Intel Chief Describes Revamp of Department Amid Radicalization in the U.S.
The U.S. must navigate a period of heightened polarization and radicalization
·· Air Force Opposes Chinese-Owned Corn Plant for North Dakota
Chinese plans to build a wet corn milling plant near an Air Force a “significant threat to national security” -
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WORLD ROUNDUPGlobal Scramble to Tackle Deepfakes | Something Has to Give in Postwar Syria | China’s Nuclear Ambitions, and more
·· Missing Radioactive Capsule Is Recovered from Western Australia Roadside
The capsule went missing when it fell from a truck·· How China’s Nuclear Ambitions Will Change Deterrence
The consequences of shifting from a bipolar system to a tripolar one·· Something Has to Give in Postwar Syria
Thirteen years of constant crisis is heading toward inevitable breakdown·· Is the U.K. the Security Leader Europe Needs?
An unlikely candidate to take the lead in European security matters has now appeared: Great Britain·· Finding a Way Out of the Societal War Over Ukraine
This conflict has predominantly been a societal confrontation·· U.S. Guns Are Fueling Violence in Central America, Here’s How to Help Stop the Arms Flow
In 2022, exports of semi-automatic rifles (including assault weapons like the AR-15 rifle) hit a new record·· Seeing Is Believing? Global Scramble to Tackle Deepfakes
Deepfake detectors are vastly outpaced by creators·· Is the U.S. Military Capable of Learning from the War in Ukraine?
The Pentagon has learned painful lessons in the past—and may have to do so again·· Hungary Most Corrupt EU Member in 2022: Watchdog
Hungary replaces Bulgaria as the most corrupt member of the EU·· Assessing the Russian and Chinese Economies Geostrategically
The geopolitical tensions have resurrected Cold War blocs -
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CHINA WATCHU.S. General's Bellicose China Memo Highlights Civilian-Military Divide
A controversial memo from a U.S. Air Force general predicting war with China in 2025 may reflect a growing disconnect between the way the United States’ civilian and military leadership view the relationship between the world’s two largest economic powers.
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IRANSuspected Israeli Drone Strike in Iran Part of New 'Containment Strategy'
Four Israeli kamikaze quadcopters hit and destroyed an Iranian military facility in Isfahan on January 28. The production facility, located inside a military base, was used to produce drones and mid-range missiles. In the last months, Israel has expanded its attacks on Iran’s military, targeting not only nuclear weapons-related targets but also production facilities for advanced arms.
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The long view
ARGUMENT: EXTREMIST THREATJanuary 6th Report Summarizes Extremist Threat – But Leaves Key Gaps
The House Jan. 6 committee’s 845-page report is unquestionably valuable, but significant questions remain largely unanswered around two interrelated components of the committee’s investigation: the scope of law enforcement and intelligence failures preceding the attack on the U.S. Capitol, and what concrete steps should be taken to combat both those failures and the rising threat of domestic violent extremism in the aftermath of January 6th.
DEMOCRACY WATCHProtecting Democracy: Jan. 6 Panel’s Recommendations, Proposed Reforms
On Thursday, 22 December, the House committee examining last year’s attack on the U.S. Capitol issued its long-awaited final report. The final report also proposes eleven reforms aiming to ensure that Trump’s attempt to subvert the will of the voters and prevent the peaceful transition of power from one president to the next would not be repeated.
EXTREMISTSFar-Left Extremist Groups in the United States
Far-left extremism in the United States was most active during the period between the 1960s and 1980s. In the 1990s, a new type of left-extremism began to emerge – what the FBI calls “special-interest extremism,” as expressed by groups such as the Animal Liberation Front (ALF) and Earth Liberation Front (ELF). The far left encompasses multiple ideologies, but security experts believe that a large percentage of far-left radicals subscribe to at least one of three main classifications: anarchism, communism/socialism/Marxism, and autonomous radicals.
DOMESTIC TERRORISMConcerns About Extremists Targeting U.S. Power Stations
Attacks on four power stations in Washington State over the weekend added to concerns of a possible nationwide campaign by far-right extremists to stir fears and spark civil conflict. Violent extremists “have developed credible, specific plans to attack electricity infrastructure since at least 2020, identifying the electric grid as a particularly attractive target given its interdependency with other infrastructure sectors,” the DHS said in a January.
ARGUMENT: CHINA WATCHNew Bill Proposes Banning TikTok in the U.S.
Both the administration and Congress have moved to limit, or even ban, TikTok in the United States because of worries about China using the Chinese-owned platform to gather personal data on millions of Americans. Justin Sherman writes that “all told, it is a noteworthy piece of legislation, and it delineates between the risk of data access and the risk of content manipulation better than then-President Trump’s executive order on TikTok.”
THE RUSSIA CONNECTIONWas George Santos Groomed to be a Russian Agent?
By Ben Frankel
Among the multitude of lies and falsehoods newly elected Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) has concocted, the most intriguing item – and likely the source of Santos’s most serious potential legal trouble – are his campaign finances. What is especially noticeable, and disturbing, are the generous contributions Santos has received from Viktor Vekselberg, one of Vladimir Putin’s wealthiest and most influential courtiers. “For all we know,” writes one commentator, “some foreign power may have bought itself a congressman. This isn’t outlandish speculation.”
PUBLIC HEALTHTackling Crowd Management in Subways During Pandemics
Mass transit, and subways in particular, are essential to the economic viability and environmental sustainability of cities across the globe. Researchers are working with NYC’s MTA to develop machine learning and traffic models to optimize traffic flow during pandemics.
BLACK SWANSMachine Learning Could Predict Rare Disastrous Events Like Earthquakes or Pandemics
Researchers suggest how scientists can circumvent the need for massive data sets to forecast extreme events with the combination of an advanced machine learning system and sequential sampling techniques.
Quick Takes // By Ben FrankelBrazil: "The Content of the Three Powers Is Preserved"
People who watched an unruly mob — supporters of the candidate who had lost the 31 October 2022 election in Brazil — break into the presidential building in Brasilia on Sunday, would be forgiven for thinking that they have seen this movie before. The similarities between what happened in the U.S. before and after the November 2020 election, and what happened in Brazil before and after the October 2022 election, are unmistaken.
DIGITAL WORKFORCE$4.8M to Address National Cybersecurity Workforce Shortage
Oregon State University has received $4.8 million from the National Science Foundation to help the United States close a big gap between the number of cybersecurity job openings and the number of qualified applicants for those positions.
ARGUMENT: INDUSTRIAL NETWORKLeveraging U.S. Capital Markets to Support the Future Industrial Network
$56 trillion is nearly three times the size of the U.S. economy. This vast pool of capital in U.S. capital markets — $46 trillion in public capitalization and another $10 trillion in private money – dwarfs that of China. Tapping U.S. equity and debt markets would enable the Department of Defense to remedy current capability shortfalls, fund technological advances from leading private-sector innovators, invest in generational transformation efforts across the military services, and upgrade antiquated global infrastructure to sustain U.S. forces.
BLOCKCHAIN & ELECTRIC-GRID RESILIENCEUsing Blockchain to Increase Electric Grid Resiliency
Blockchain is best known for securing digital currency payments, but researchers are using it to track a different kind of exchange: It’s the first time blockchain has ever been used to validate communication among devices on the electric grid.
ENERGY SECURITYHydrogen Changing Power Dynamics in Energy Sector
By Sergio Matalucci
As the EU tries to finalize its hydrogen rules, Asian countries are moving fast to secure deliveries and the US is committing money to set up local supply chains. Can the Middle East collaborate with both continents?
WATER SECURITYThe Cold War Legacy Lurking in U.S. Groundwater
By Mark Olalde, Mollie Simon and Alex Mierjeski
In America’s rush to build the nuclear arsenal that won the Cold War, safety was sacrificed for speed. ProPublica has cataloged cleanup efforts at the 50-plus sites where uranium was processed to fuel the nation’s nuclear arsenal. Even after regulators say cleanup is complete, polluted water and sickness are often left behind.
WILDFFIRESAmericans Are Flocking to Wildfire
People are trading hurricane zones for wildfire areas, says national study of migration, natural disasters, and climate change.
CLIMATE & DISASTER INSURANCEInsurance for a Changing Climate
By Sara Frueh
Among the many facets of the economy being challenged and changed by warming global temperatures is the insurance industry. Damaging extreme events such as wildfires, hurricanes, and floods are happening with greater frequency and intensity, which leaves insurance companies facing larger financial risks and paying out more in claims — and it also leaves policy holders paying higher prices to insure their homes and businesses.