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IRAN’S NUKES What Damage Did the U.S. Do to Iran’s Nuclear Program? Why It’s So Hard to Know
Disagreements over the damage the U.S. bombing did to Iran’s nuclear facilities are unsurprising. Battle damage assessment –originally called bomb damage assessment –is notoriously difficult, and past wars have featured intense controversies among military and intelligence professionals.
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IRAN’S NUKESWhy the U.S. Bombed a Bunch of Metal Tubes − a Nuclear Engineer Explains the Importance of Centrifuges to Iranian Efforts to Build Nuclear Weapons
It’s not clear what the U.S. attack has accomplished, but destroying the facilities targeted in the attack and hindering Iran’s ability to continue enriching uranium might be a way to slow Iran’s move toward producing nuclear weapons. But history shows that a more reliable means of preventing Iran from achieving its nuclear aims would be for diplomacy and cooperation to prevail.
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NUCLEAR WARPotential Environmental Effects of Nuclear War
In the 1980s, in response to the buildup of U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals during the Cold War, scientists issued warnings about the potential for a “nuclear winter” scenario which would follow a nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union. Since then, military, political, and technological changes have reshaped the nuclear weapons landscape, while scientific advances have deepened the understanding of and ability to model Earth system processes.
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CRITICAL MINERALSManaging the Dark Side of the Critical Minerals Rush
As the world scrambles to meet the demands of a clean energy transition, it’s tempting to focus on the environmental, social and human security costs of mining. But focusing solely on these negative externalities obscures a hard reality: without mining, there is no energy transition.
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CRITICAL MINERALSA Unique Method of Rare-Earth Recycling Can Strengthen the Raw Material Independence of Europe and America
Researchers have developed a new method of separating the rare earth elements, or lanthanides, which are widely used in the electronic, medical, automotive, and defense industries.
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NUCLEAR POWERSmaller Nuclear Reactors Spark Renewed Interest in a Once-Shunned Energy Source
In the past two years, half the states have taken action to promote nuclear power, from creating nuclear task forces to integrating nuclear into long-term energy plans.
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WILDFIRESGames Can Promote Preparedness and Build Community Resilience to Wildfire
If a wildfire causes an evacuation, people are forced to leave quickly and make decisions under pressure. These challenging decisions can have serious impacts on the outcome of a fire, and are what players confront in ‘Firewise Residents,’ one of three simulation games created by University of California, Santa Cruz computational media researchers.
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OUR PICKSFive Considerations for Military Action Against Mexican Drug Cartels | Pro-Russia Disinformation Campaign Is Using Free AI Tools to Fuel a “Content Explosion” | Idaho Firefighter Shooting Connected to 2001 Fire at Aryan Nation Compound, and more
· A Pro-Russia Disinformation Campaign Is Using Free AI Tools to Fuel a “Content Explosion”
· Insurers Aren’t Saying Whether They’ll Cover Vaccines for Kids if Government Stops Recommending Them
· What Zohran Mamdani Has Actually Said About Jews and Israel
· Idaho Firefighter Shooting Connected to 2001 Fire at Aryan Nation Compound, Internet Sleuths Claim
· A Group of Young Cybercriminals Poses the “Most Imminent Threat” of Cyberattacks Right Now
· Five Considerations for Military Action Against Mexican Drug Cartels
· Sinaloa Cartel Used Phone Data and Surveillance Cameras to find FBI Informants, DOJ Says
· The Big Beautiful Bill Reveals the Hollowness of Trumponomics
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WORLD ROUNDUPHow Rare Earths Became China’s Top Trade Weapon | Far-Right Extremists Use Minecraft to Gamify Radicalization | Israeli Attacks Brought Fear but Not Regime Change to Iran, and more
· China’s Evolving Industrial Policy for AI
· China’s Giant New Gamble with Digital IDs
· Playing with Hate: How Far-Right Extremists Use Minecraft to Gamify Radicalization
· “Dangerous Demonstration of Power”: Islamic Group Separates Genders at University Lecture at Berlin Charité
· Why Israeli Attacks Brought Fear but Not Regime Change to Iran
· Rwanda Exercises Command and Control over M23 Rebels, Say UN Experts
· Ranking the Strongmen
· How Rare Earths Became China’s Top Trade Weapon
· Israel Is Growing More Dependent on a Less Sympathetic United States
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EXTREMISMTerrorgram Block Is a Welcome Step Towards Countering Violent Extremism
Terrorgram has been linked to lone-actor attacks in Slovakia, Turkey, Brazil and the United States. Its listing places it among the likes of Hamas, Islamic State, and violent white supremacist groups such as Sonnenkrieg Division and The Base.
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EMERGENCY POWERSEmergency Powers Are for Emergencies
The country thrived for many decades before the creation of most emergency powers. It can do so as well, going forward.
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SURVEILLANCEFlock Safety’s Feature Updates Cannot Make Automated License Plate Readers Safe
Two recent statements from the surveillance company reveal a troubling pattern: when confronted by evidence of widespread abuse, Flock Safety has blamed users, downplayed harms, and doubled down on the very systems that enabled the violations in the first place.
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SURVEILLANCEA Simple, Low-Cost Method Detects GPS Trackers Hidden in Vehicles, Empowering Cyberstalking Victims
Novel algorithm transforms commercial radio device into user-friendly, effective tracker detector.
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POWER-GRID SECURITYWarnings of Cybersecurity Threats to Smart Grids from False Data Injection Attacks
Smart grids face a significant cybersecurity risk as they become more complex with the increasing integration of distributed power supplies.
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DISASTER RESPONSEStates Fear Critical Funding from FEMA May Be Drying Up
Many states rely on the federal government for the vast majority of their emergency management funding. Now, local leaders are looking for clues about the money —and the future of FEMA itself.
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OUR PICKSSenate Kills AI-law Moratorium | Pentagon Will No Longer Share Satellite Data That Tracks Hurricanes | Catholic Bishops Try to Rally Opposition to Trump’s Immigration Agenda, and more
· DOGE Has the Keys to Sensitive Data That Could Help Elon Musk
· Catholic Bishops Try to Rally Opposition to Trump’s Immigration Agenda
· Appeals Court Seems Likely to Back Trump’s Deportations Under Wartime Law
· Trump Says Ice Is Arresting the ‘Worst of the Worst’ —New Data Shows That’s Not True
· We Asked 5 AI Models to Fact-Check Trump. Here’s What We Learned.
· In Dramatic Reversal, Senate Kills AI-law Moratorium
· Pentagon Will No Longer Share Satellite Data That Tracks Hurricanes Overnight
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WORLD ROUNDUPHow Europe Got Tough on Migration | A Peace Agreement That Will Probably Not Bring Peace | Is Nicaragua Assassinating Government Critics in Costa Rica?, and more
· After War with Israel and U.S., Iran Rests on a Knife Edge
· A Peace Agreement That Will Probably Not Bring Peace
· How Europe Got Tough on Migration
· Refugees Worry: Is Nicaragua Assassinating Government Critics in Costa Rica?
· USAID Cuts May Cause 14 Million More Deaths in Next Five Years, Study Says
· China’s Secret Weapon Revealed: These Hidden Container Missiles Pose Immediate Threat to US National Security
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IRAN’S NUKESPost-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli and U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities
Israel’s historic Operation Rising Lion and the United States Operation Midnight Hammer have targeted many Iranian nuclear sites, causing massive damage to its nuclear program and setting it back significantly.
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IRAN’S NUKESThe Uncertainty in the Aftermath of the U.S. Bombing in Iran
The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites Sunday had a concrete strategic objective: thwart Iran’s ability to enrich nuclear material and potentially build nuclear weapons. It was intended to make the world a safer place. At the moment, however, the world remains a dangerous place.
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Quote of the Day
One thing I think that this attack signals is that there’s a big distinction between nuclear and non-nuclear states in that you can do whatever you want to a non-nuclear state. It would be much harder if Iran actually had a nuclear program…. Once you get nuclear weapons, it’s really hard for anybody to come and overturn your regime…. And so there’s going to be all these long-run consequences that aren’t going to be necessarily so pretty, meaning that a lot of countries are going to see this as a signal that they need to get serious about their own separate nuclear deterrence.
— Francis Fukuyama, interviewed by Yascha Mounk, Persuasion, 25 June 1925
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CYBERFEARS, TRUST & DEMOCRACYCyber Attacks Shake Voters’ Trust in Elections, Regardless of Party
American democracy runs on trust, and that trust is cracking. In recent years, authoritarian regimes have refined a chillingly effective strategy to chip away at Americans’ faith in democracy by relentlessly sowing doubt about the tools U.S. states use to conduct elections. It’s a sustained campaign to fracture civic faith and make Americans believe that democracy is rigged, especially when their side loses.
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CRITICAL MINERALSNth Cycle Is Bringing Critical Metals Refining to the U.S.
Much like Middle Eastern oil production in the 1970s, China today dominates the global refinement of critical metals that serve as the foundation of the United States economy. The U.S. needs another technological breakthrough to secure domestic supplies of metals like lithium, cobalt, copper, and rare earth elements, which are needed for everything from batteries to jet engines and electric motors. Nth Cycle thinks it has a solution.
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More headlines
The long view
ENCRYPTIONEncryption Breakthrough Lays Groundwork for Privacy-Preserving AI Models
In an era where data privacy concerns loom large, a new approach in artificial intelligence (AI) could reshape how sensitive information is processed. New AI framework enables secure neural network computation without sacrificing accuracy.
FOREIGN INTERFERENCEKinetic Operations Bring Authoritarian Violence to Democratic Streets
Foreign interference in democracies has a multifaceted toolkit. In addition to information manipulation, the tactical tools authoritarian actors use to undermine democracy include cyber operations, economic coercion, malign finance, and civil society subversion.
EXTREMISMPatriots’ Day: How Far-Right Groups Hijack History and Patriotic Symbols to Advance Their Cause, According to an Expert on Extremism
Extremist groups have attempted to change the meaning of freedom and liberty embedded in Patriots’ Day — a commemoration of the battles of Lexington and Concord – to serve their far-right rhetoric, recruitment, and radicalization. Understanding how patriotic symbols can be exploited offers important insights into how historical narratives may be manipulated, potentially leading to harmful consequences in American society.
AIAI-Controlled Fighter Jets May Be Closer Than We Think — and Would Change the Face of Warfare
Could we be on the verge of an era where fighter jets take flight without pilots – and are controlled by artificial intelligence (AI)? US R Adm Michael Donnelly recently said that an upcoming combat jet could be the navy’s last one with a pilot in the cockpit.
NUCLEAR SURVIVALWhat We’ve Learned from Survivors of the Atomic Bombs
Q&A with Dr. Preetha Rajaraman, New Vice Chair for the Radiation Effects Research Foundation in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan.
ANTI-VACCINE THREATCombatting the Measles Threat Means Examining the Reasons for Declining Vaccination Rates
Measles was supposedly eradicated in Canada more than a quarter century ago. But today, measles is surging. The cause of this resurgence is declining vaccination rates.
VACCINATIONSocial Networks Are Not Effective at Mobilizing Vaccination Uptake
The persuasive power of social networks is immense, but not limitless. Vaccine preferences, based on the COVID experience in the United States, proved quite insensitive to persuasion, even through friendship networks.
CYBERSECURITYNeed for National Information Clearinghouse for Cybercrime Data, Categorization of Cybercrimes: Report
There is an acute need for the U.S. to address its lack of overall governance and coordination of cybercrime statistics. A new report recommends that relevant federal agencies create or designate a national information clearinghouse to draw information from multiple sources of cybercrime data and establish connections to assist in criminal investigations.
U.S. MANUFACTURINGTrying to “Bring Back” Manufacturing Jobs Is a Fool’s Errand
Advocates of recent populist policies like to focus on the supposed demise of manufacturing that occurred after the 1970s, but that focus is misleading. The populists’ bleak economic narrative ignores the truth that the service sector has always been a major driver of America’s success, for decades, even more so than manufacturing. Trying to “bring back” manufacturing jobs, through harmful tariffs or other industrial policies, is destined to end badly for Americans. It makes about as much sense as trying to “bring back” all those farm jobs we had before the 1870s.
CRITICAL MINERALSThe Potential Impact of Seabed Mining on Critical Mineral Supply Chains and Global Geopolitics
The potential emergence of a seabed mining industry has important ramifications for the diversification of critical mineral supply chains, revenues for developing nations with substantial terrestrial mining sectors, and global geopolitics.
RESILIENCEHelping Strengthen America’s Critical Infrastructure
Everyday life depends on a robust infrastructure network that provides access to running water, communications technology and electricity, among other basic necessities. The experts who keep our national infrastructure secure and resilient also need a strong network to share their knowledge and train the next generation of professionals capable of solving complex infrastructure challenges.
ELECTRIC GRIDAI and the Future of the U.S. Electric Grid
Despite its age, the U.S. electric grid remains one of the great workhorses of modern life. Whether it can maintain that performance over the next few years may determine how well the U.S. competes in an AI-driven world.
ENERGY SECURITYUsing Liquid Air for Grid-Scale Energy Storage
New research finds liquid air energy storage could be the lowest-cost option for ensuring a continuous power supply on a future grid dominated by carbon-free but intermittent sources of electricity.
ENERGY SECURITYEnhanced Geothermal Systems: A Promising Source of Round-the-Clock Energy
With its capacity to provide 24/7 power, many are warming up to the prospect of geothermal energy. Scientists are currently working to advance human-made reservoirs in Earth’s deep subsurface to stimulate the activity that exists within natural geothermal systems.
ENERGY SECURITYExperts Discuss Geothermal Potential
Geothermal energy harnesses the heat from within Earth—the term comes from the Greek words geo (earth) and therme (heat). It is an energy source that has the potential to power all our energy needs for billions of years.
CLIMATE CHALLENGESTrump Aims to Shut Down State Climate Policies
President Donald Trump has launched an all-out legal attack on states’ authority to set climate change policy. Climate-focused state leaders say his administration has no legal basis to unravel their efforts.