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DEMOCRACY WATCHIn Bid for Voter Data, Trump’s DOJ Lays Groundwork to Undermine Confidence in Midterms
The U.S. Department of Justice has begun connecting its push to obtain sensitive personal data on millions of voters to whether the upcoming midterm elections will be fair and secure, laying the groundwork for the Trump administration to cast doubt on the results. DOJ says state rolls are needed to ensure fairness of elections.
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EXTREMISMMeet the AI rapper Funded by a Far-Right Party
The far-right party Advance UK has hired the mystery ‘collective’ behind Danny Bones, a white-nationalist musician and activist – who isn’t real: He is an AI-generated persona.
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CRITICAL MINERALSIn Its Hunt for Critical Minerals, the U.S. Is Misconstruing What Is and Is Not America’s
The minerals on the U.S. seabed are America’s. The minerals on the international seabed are not “America’s.” The administration plans to authorize companies to mine in international areas, nonetheless.
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CRITICAL MINERALSTo Secure Mineral Demand, Align with Original Equipment Manufacturers
Allied governments want resilient critical mineral supply chains. Investors want contracted revenue. Capital does not finance separation plants and magnet facilities based on strategic aspiration; it finances credible, long-term demand.
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TERRORISMIran and Terrorism: What the U.S. Strikes Could Mean for Homeland Security
The longer the war in Iran goes on, the greater the incentive for the Islamic Republic to apply all forms of asymmetric warfare, including retaliation that could affect the U.S. homeland, in hopes of coercing Trump to abandon his war aims.
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IRAN WARIraq War’s Aftermath Was a Disaster for the U.S. – the Iran War Is Headed in the Same Direction
The United States military achieved every objective it set when it went to war in Iraq in 2003. But the military outcome and the political outcome are almost never the same thing, and the gap between them is where wars fail.
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IRAN WARThe Fantasy of the Iran “Commando Option”
Special Operations Forces cannot do everything. They are a scalpel that policymakers in Washington, DC, have tended to use as a multitool. Their proposed use in Iran for seizing the regime’s stockpile of enriched uranium is but the latest idea in this trend. It is also the most reckless—an idea closer to fantasy than to feasibility.
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BIOTHREATSPick Your Poison: The Enduring Threat of Biological Toxins
A summary of the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense’s “Pick Your Poison: The Enduring Threat of Biological Toxins” at the Atlantic Council.
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DEMOCRACY WATCHFive Foreign Election Conspiracy Theories Making the Rounds Again
After the 2020 U.S. presidential election, a flurry of conspiracy theories emerged alleging that President Trump’s reelection victory was “stolen” through massive fraud. These theories were all thoroughly debunked. More than 50 court cases rejected Trump and his allies’ claims as meritless. But Trump remains unable to cope with his loss. As a result, debunked conspiracy theories about 2020 fraud are being dredged up again as pretext for consolidating federal control over elections.
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CRIMETry As He Might, Trump Can’t Take Credit for the Nation’s Murder Drop
The Trace has fact-checked the president’s claims about violent crime and immigrants during his State of the Union.
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GEOENGINEERINGThe U.S. Barely Bothers to Track Geoengineering. What Could Go Wrong?
Whether it’s cloud seeding or covering the Arctic in tiny glass beads, there’s little standing in the way of weather modification.
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OUR PICKSKristi Noem’s Ignoble Legacy as DHS Secretary | Anti-Semitism Is Becoming Mainstream | Far Right Extremists Are Grooming Kids Under Our Noses, and more
· Pete Hegseth’s Worrisome Press Briefing
· Kristi Noem’s Ignoble Legacy as Homeland-Security Secretary
· Videos of ICE Shooting in Texas Capture a Confused and Fatal Encounter
· How ‘Handala’ Became the Face of Iran’s Hacker Counterattacks
· Hegseth Orders ‘Ruthless’ Review of JAGs. Some See an Attempt to Evade Accountability
· Conservative Students Alarmed About College Republicans Leader with Nick Fuentes Ties
· Mario Kart Games, Chatrooms and Lies - How Far Right Extremists Are Grooming Kids Under Our Noses
· Why AI Systems Justify Their Toxic Behavior That Would Be Defined as Terrorism If Done By a Human
· America’s Blame-Israel Lobby
· Anti-Semitism Is Becoming Mainstream
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WORLD ROUNDUPHow to (Not) Be a Pacific Power | China’s Middle East Ties Go Far Beyond Iran | Islamic State Crowdfunding, and more
· Netanyahu’s Very Useful War
· How America and Israel Built Vast Military Targeting Machines
· Islamic State Crowdfunding Donations for Jihadists’ Wives
· Cuba Has Survived 66 Years of US-led Embargoes. Will Trump’s Blockade Break It Now?
· Ground Down by War, Hezbollah’s Loyal Base Shows Cracks
· An Attack on the World Economy
· How to (Not) Be a Pacific Power
· China’s Middle East Ties Go Far Beyond Iran
· A Blank Check for Israel and the War with Iran
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IRAN WARU.S. Is Less Prone to Oil Price Shocks Than in Past Decades
Oil is a global market, so when prices rise in one place, they rise everywhere. The current war against Iran has already raised oil prices significantly. Now, however, the United States is a major producer and exporter of oil and refined petroleum products. In addition to being less dependent on imports, the U.S. economy is much less oil-intensive than it used to be, producing more economic value with far less oil use today than in the past.
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IRAN WARTrump Should Aim to Neutralize the Iran Regime, Not Destroy It
A grassroots revolution in Iran sounds attractive, but it is far too risky. The likely outcome of dismantling the Islamic Republic is not stable democracy, but state fracture, political chaos, and radiating instability. Washington should instead aim for a defanged Islamic Republic.
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DEPORTATIONSThe Illusion of Reform: Why DHS Restraints Fail Without a Path to the Courthouse
Correcting DHS’s deplorable behavior will not be accomplished by a small tweak to the specific ways in which agents target civilians, but rather by a strong deterrent. Now is the time to demand systemic reform. We must ensure that no government agent is above the law or cloaked in immunity.
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IMMIGRATIONStudy: Texas’ Controversial Migrant Busing Program Helped Trump in 2024 Election
Texas busing programs that transported newly-arrived immigrants to Democratic-led cities boosted President Donald Trump’s vote share in affected counties during the 2024 election.
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DEMOCRACY WATCHHow to Prevent Elections from Being Stolen − Lessons from Around the World for the U.S.
President Donald Trump in his State of the Union address doubled down on his false claims that the U.S. elections system is compromised. His persistent effort to denigrate and spread distrust in the U.S. electoral process has led to speculation about how much further he might go to tilt the 2026 midterm and 2028 presidential elections in favor of candidates he supports.
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CHINA WATCHAI Governance Is not Just Top-Down in China, Research Finds
Political scientist Xuechen Chen said traditional Chinese values and market driven factors have also driven moves to regulate generative AI platforms.
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OUR PICKSCould Special Forces Steal Iran’s Uranium? | Fake AI Content About the Iran War Is All Over X | When Chatbots Are Used to Plan Violence, and more
· Could Special Forces Steal Iran’s Uranium?
· Fake AI Content About the Iran War Is All Over X
· Trump, Seeking Executive Power Over Elections, Is Urged to Declare Emergency
· Training for New ICE Agents Is ‘Deficient’ and ‘Broken,’ Whistle-Blower Says
· Trump’s Factory Boom Isn’t What It Looks Like
· When Chatbots Are Used to Plan Violence, Is There a Duty to Warn?
· Iran Warns US Tech Firms Could Become Targets as War Expands
· Trump’s New Cyber-First War Strategy
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WORLD ROUNDUPDonald Trump Risks a Quagmire in Iran | Assad Loyalists Are Regrouping | Breaking China’s Hold on Critical Minerals, and more
· Britain Spends Billions More than France on Defense, So Why Is the French Military Superior?
· Russia Sends Migrants into Europe Through Secret Tunnels ·
· Donald Trump Risks a Quagmire in Iran
· Defending Europe if Russia Steps Out of the Gray Zone
· Europe’s Desire for Strategic Autonomy Is a ‘Fait Accompli.’ It Just Needs to Decide What That Means
· Assad Loyalists Are Regrouping
· Cyber Deterrence Without Illusions: Europe’s Escalation Dilemma
· Breaking China’s Hold on Critical Minerals Requires More than Tariffs
· Russia’s Air Defenses Could Shoot Down Britain’s Nuclear Missiles
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DEMOCRACY WATCHBlue States Push to Ban ICE at the Polls Amid Federal Voter Intimidation Fears
Several Democratic states are moving to bar federal immigration agents from being near polling places and other election sites, amid persistent worries that President Donald Trump will use federal law enforcement or the military to disrupt the midterm elections. DHS says it has no plans to target voting locations.
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More headlines
The long view
UNILATERAL WITHDRAWALHybrid Risks Rise as U.S. Withdraws from International Organizations
The United States’ decision to withdraw from many international organizations risks allowing Beijing and Moscow to further advance their undermining of global stability.
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THE SHIFTING LANDSCAPECURRENTS, TRENDS, DIRECTIONS
COMMON-SENSE NOTES // By Idris B. OdunewuThe Legacy of the Arab Spring, to Date
The Arab Spring did not simply unsettle Arab regimes. It disrupted an entire geopolitical equilibrium that had been quietly accepted for decades. What appeared at first as a series of domestic uprisings ultimately rewired regional alignments, altered great-power postures, normalized intervention, and reshaped how instability itself is managed and exploited.
POWER-GRID SABOTAGEHacking the Grid: How Digital Sabotage Turns Infrastructure into a Weapon
The darkness that swept over the Venezuelan capital in the predawn hours of Jan. 3, 2026, signaled a profound shift in the nature of modern conflict: the convergence of physical and cyber warfare. The blackout was the result of a precise and invisible manipulation of the industrial control systems that manage the flow of electricity. This synchronization of traditional military action with advanced cyber warfare represents a new chapter in international conflict, one where lines of computer code that manipulate critical infrastructure are among the most potent weapons.
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NUCLEAR WEAPONSBookshelf: Why the U.S. Failed to Contain North Korea’s Nuclear Threat
Joel Wit’s new book details the failure of the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations to contain and limit North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. Wit writes that Trump had an opportunity to roll back the North Korean program, but Trump’s personal characteristics and governing style doomed the effort. Wit credits Trump’s unorthodox approach for setting the stage for the unprecedented Hanoi summit withKim Jong Un, but blames his short attention span – John Bolton said that Trump “has the attention span of a fruit fly” — for its breakdown. “The president couldn’t sit still long enough to close the deal,” Wit writes.
NUCLEAR RISKSSmall Modular Reactors and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are widely heralded as the next major leap in civilian nuclear energy. Beneath this optimism, however, lies a growing unease within the nuclear policy community relating to the nuclear weapons proliferation and safeguards challenges that SMRs pose to the existing global nuclear governance system.
SECURITY TECHNOLOGYEntity Resolution: The Security Technology You Probably Haven’t Heard Of
The concept “entity resolution” (ER) is probably unfamiliar, but it underpins much of the world’s security—in telecommunications, banking and national security.
CHINA WATCH“DeepSeek Is in the Driver’s Seat. That’s a Big Security Problem”
Democratic countries have a smart-car problem. For those that don’t act quickly and decisively, it’s about to become a severe national security headache.
WAR ON VACCINESVaccine Myths That Won't Die and How to Counter Them—Part 1
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Secretary of Health and Human Services, has spent decades promoting vaccine skepticism. He has replaced scientists at different HHS such as CDC and NIH with vaccine skeptics and anti-vaccine activists. They have polluted the information environment with, and base their policy changes on, myths about the supposed risks of vaccines. Each of these myths has been studied extensively. Each has been refuted. And yet each persists, because misinformation travels faster than correction and because these myths tap into fears that are genuinely human.
WAR ON VACCINESVaccine Myths That Won’t Die and How to Counter Them—Part 2
This article and its Part 1 catalogue the debunked myths driving the vaccine skeptics who now run HHS. These myths share four fundamental errors: First, the conflation of temporal association with causation. Second, the confusion of regulatory paperwork with the totality of scientific evidence. Third, the demand for impossible standards. Fourth, the selective citation of evidence. The current political moment has given unprecedented platforms to vaccine skepticism. But politics cannot change biology.
POLARIZATIONSocial Media Research Tool Lowers the Political Temperature
Researchers created a method to downrank antidemocratic and highly partisan posts on X, reducing polarization while potentially giving users greater control over their feeds.The method reprioritizes social media posts, pushing those that breach democratic norms and use hostile partisan language lower in a feed.
SCHOOL SAFETYThere’s Little Evidence Tech Is Much Help Stopping School Shootings
Different security technologies appeal to institutions struggling to protect their communities, and are marketed aggressively as the future of school shooting prevention. I’m a criminologist who studies mass shootings and school violence. In my research, I’ve found that there’s a lack of evidence to support the effectiveness of these technological interventions.
DISASTERSWest Coast Levee Failures Show Growing Risks from America’s Aging Flood Defenses
Across the U.S., levees are getting older while weather is getting more extreme. Many of these structures were never designed for the enormous responsibility they now carry.
WATER SECURITYMexico and U.S. Look for New Deal in Long-Running Battle Over 80-year Old Water Treaty
Mexico and the US’s growing dispute over water rights further complicates an already strained relationship that must tackle existing challenges related to drug trafficking, security, migration and trade wars. Water is just the latest issue to rise to the top of the tension table.