• IRAN’S NUKESIran's Nuclear Activities 'Raises Eyebrows' at IAEA

    By Biresh Banerjee and Zachary Crellin

    Iran’s enrichment of uranium and a lack of access to international monitors is fueling suspicions about its nuclear activities. The International Atomic Energy Agency said its committed to promoting dialogue with Tehran.

  • IRAN’S THREATIts Deterrence Strategy Weakened, Iran Faces Pressure to Hit Israel

    By Kian Sharifi

    Iran’s strategy of deterrence against Israel has suffered greatly since the outbreak of the Gaza war — particularly after the brazen attack on its consulate in the Syrian capital on April 1. the deadly strike on its consulate in Damascus may compel Iran to take direct action, experts say.

  • IRAN’S THREATMemo: The Reported Destruction of Secret Workshop in 2020

    By David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Spencer Faragasso, and Mohammadreza Giveh

    On March 24, 2024, Iran International reported that an “industrial production workshop […] belonging to the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) was deliberately set on fire” in the summer of 2020. 1 The incident was not reported publicly at the time, and Iran International cites judicial and intelligence documents provided by a hacking group as their source. Iran alleged that the Israeli intelligence service, Mossad, hired a group of nine Iranians to destroy the facility.

  • IRAN’S NUKESAnalysis of the IAEA’s Iran NPT Safeguards Report - February 2024

    By David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Andrea Stricker

    For the first time, the latest quarterly International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards report on Iran’s compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) draws a direct line between Iran’s non-compliance with its comprehensive safeguards agreement (CSA) and concern about Iran’s current ability to make nuclear weapons.

  • NUCLEAR DETERRENCEEnhancing Preservation of Nuclear Deterrence System Designs

    By Kenny Vigil

    A new team at Sandia is helping to more consistently track why and when important changes are made during the design and development of nuclear deterrence systems. It takes an average of 10 years to develop a system from design to production. That means a lot of decisions and changes are made along the way.

  • NUCLEAR RISKSRaging Texas Wildfires Force U.S. Main Nuclear Weapon Facility to Evacuate, Temporarily Shut Down

    Raging wildfires in the Texas panhandle have forced the evacuation and temporary closure of the Pantex plant, the U.S. premier nuclear weapons assembly facility. The Pantex plant said that “All weapons and special materials are safe and unaffected.”

  • NUCLEAR TRAFFICKINGJapanese Yakuza Leader Charged with Trafficking Nuclear Materials

    Takeshi Ebisawa of Japan, leader within the Yakuza transnational organized crime syndicate, was charged with trafficking nuclear materials, including uranium and weapons-grade plutonium.

  • GERMAN NUKESGermany and Nuclear Weapons: A Difficult History

    By Volker Witting and Rina Goldenberg

    Donald Trump’s suggestion that, should he become president again, the U.S. will no longer abide by NATO’s principle of collective defense, has sent shockwaves through Europe. German politicians have been discussing whether French and British nuclear weapons would suffice as a protective shield or whether Europe needs new nuclear weapons.

  • EUROPEAN NUKESTrump’s Threats Lead to Reflections in EU Over Nuclear Weapons

    By Ella Joyner

    Trump’s latest threats that he will take the U.S. out of NATO have gotten EU politicians and military experts talking about a European nuclear deterrence without Washington. Others are warning of a risky, hasty debate, and seek to downplay chances of a major stateside shake-up. Some suggest that France “Europeanize” its nuclear capabilities.

  • IRAN’S NUKESThe Iran Threat Geiger Counter: Reaching Extreme Danger

    By The Institute for Science and International Security

    The Iran Threat Geiger Counter from the Institute for Science and International Security measures on a regular basis Iran’s hostile actions and intentions toward the United States and U.S. allies, and its capability to turn these hostile intentions into action through the potential or actual construction of nuclear weapons. As with the radiation levels measured by a Geiger counter, any level above zero represents a degree of danger. Since May 2023, the date of the last edition of the Counter, the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program has increased dramatically.

  • NORTH KOREA’S NUKESU.S.-North Korea Arms Control Talks or Denuclearization? Analysts Are Divided

    By Christy Lee

    As Pyongyang continues to bolster its nuclear and missile programs while refusing to engage with Washington, analysts are divided on whether the U.S. should continue pursuing denuclearization or consider possible arms control options.

  • NUCLEAR PROLIFERATIONA Non-Proliferation Solution: Using Antineutrinos to Surveil Nuclear Reactors

    Antineutrinos generated in nuclear fission can be measured to remotely monitor the operation of nuclear reactors and verify that they are not being used to produce nuclear weapons, scientists report. Thanks to a newly developed method, it is now possible to estimate a reactor’s operation status, fuel burnup, and fuel composition based entirely on its antineutrino emissions. This technique could contribute massively to nuclear non-proliferation efforts and, in turn, safer nuclear energy.

  • ASIAN SECURITYIs North Korea Preparing for War in 2024?

    By Julian Ryall

    North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is ratcheting up the war rhetoric against South Korea and the US once again. This time, however, analysts warn the threat goes beyond the usual bluster.

  • IRAN’S NUKESHow Quickly Could Iran Make Nuclear Weapons Today?

    By David Albright

    For Iran, two of the three poles in the tent of building nuclear weapons – fissile material and delivery vehicles — are essentially complete. It will take them one week to enrich enough uranium to 90 percent for one bomb (and one month to enrich enough uranium for six bombs). Iran also has a variety of delivery systems, including nuclear-capable missiles: the delivery pole is ready. Weaponization is the pole that needs more work. The accelerated weaponization program can be accomplished in a matter of six months.

  • QUICK TAKES // BY BEN FRANKELFiasco: How Trump’s 2018 Decision Facilitated Iran’s Nuclear-Weapons Program

    The 2015 nuclear deal between the world powers and Iran made it impossible for Iran to build nuclear weapons for at least twenty years – from 2015 until about 2035. Critics of the deal, lamenting the deal’s sunset clauses, said they were worried about Iran being (relatively) free to build an infrastructure for nuclear weapons in 2030-2035, once some of the deal’s clauses were set to expire. It was a legitimate concern. But the answer to that perceived weakness in the deal was not the answer Donald Trump gave in May 2018: to unilaterally withdraw from the deal and thus make it possible for Iran to build its first bomb in 2024.