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CHINA WATCHFar from Random, China’s Global Port Network Is Clustering Near the World’s Riskiest Trade Routes
Chinese firms now own or operate terminals at more than 90 ports worldwide, including many of the busiest. The network spans Africa, Europe, the Middle East and Asia, with growing activity in South America. The scale of China’s involvement in overseas ports has fueled debate over whether these investments are purely commercial or serve broader strategic goals. -
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ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCESOrbán’s Fall in Hungary Opens a Door for Europe — and Closes One for Russia
Longtime Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán suffered a massive defeat in his country’s elections, with the opposition party claiming a supermajority. The country’s new leader, Péter Magyar, now has the chance to unwind sixteen years of illiberalism and play an important role in the future of NATO and European integration.
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DEMOCRACY WATCHHungarian Election Exposes Tensions at the Heart of Donald Trump’s Plans to Boost the Far‑Right in Europe
The world will be watching on April 12 when Hungarians head to the polls in parliamentary elections that will determine the country’s next prime minister. This may sound exaggerated, but these parliamentary elections are about much more than simply whether the incumbent prime minister, Viktor Orbán, will serve another term as Hungary’s leader.
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NUCLEAR WEAPONSThe U.S. Is Pushing Southeast Asia Toward China. The Iran War Made It Worse.
There is a growing anxiety among U.S. allies in Southeast Asia about inconsistencies in U.S. policy and the credibility of long-term commitments under Trump’s leadership. A new survey of Southeast Asian opinion leaders shows they prefer China to the United States as a partner, while the region’s biggest geopolitical concern is U.S. global leadership.
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IRAN WARGulf Leaders Didn’t Want the Iran War. They Need Trump to Win It Anyway.
Leaders in the region weren’t necessarily interested in a war with the Islamic Republic, but they now need Trump to oust the Iranian regime to ensure it can no longer pose a threat. Stopping short of that would be existential to the Gulf states’ development model.
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IRAN WAR: MARITIME DIMENSIONSWhy Hasn’t the U.S. Military Used Force to Secure the Strait of Hormuz?
To make the strait safe for shipping, there is a need to secure not just the water, but the land on either side of it. And this would likely require ground forces – or perhaps raiding parties on Iran’s coastline – which would be complicated and risky for the US military. Securing shipping would require a significant number of naval ships.
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IRAN WAR: MARITIME DIMENSIONSMaritime Dimensions of the West Asia War
Despite the USs possessing overwhelming superiority over Iran in the naval domain, it has been unable to deter or prevent Iranian disruption of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s selective restrictions on transit showcase how geopolitical alignments influence commercial navigation and international trade flows.
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CRITICAL MINERALSEU and U.S. Critical-Minerals Strategies: Same Goal, Different Methods
The United States and the European Union are both working to reduce their dependence on China for critical minerals, but they’re taking markedly different approaches. As both powers pursue critical-mineral independence through different means, the EU may struggle to keep up with the US’s more assertive policy.
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IRAN WARWarden’s Five Rings and Regime Change in Iran
The war in Iran began with one of the most effective decapitation strikes in history but while it may have caused temporary paralysis, it neither brought down the regime nor brought victory. Should the United States and Israel truly desire regime change in the near term, their success so far will not be enough. Rather than targeting the heads of the regime, they will have to target the proverbial arms and fingers of repression. The Basij, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Law Enforcement Command at the local level must begin to bear the brunt of U.S. and Israeli airpower.
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IRAN WARThe Chokepoint We Missed: Sulfur, Hormuz, and the Threats to Military Readiness
The cascading effects of disrupted maritime chokepoints are no longer the subject of simulations; they are an active crisis.
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CRITICAL MINERALSChina’s Export Controls Threaten U.S. Interceptors During Conflict with Iran
Neodymium and samarium may sound like something from a Hollywood superhero film, but they aren’t. These obscure elements drive modern tech and are buried deep inside modern missile systems, and they give China a quiet yet powerful lever over the United States in the ongoing conflict with Iran.
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IRAN WARIraq War’s Aftermath Was a Disaster for the U.S. – the Iran War Is Headed in the Same Direction
The United States military achieved every objective it set when it went to war in Iraq in 2003. But the military outcome and the political outcome are almost never the same thing, and the gap between them is where wars fail.
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IRAN WARU.S. Is Less Prone to Oil Price Shocks Than in Past Decades
Oil is a global market, so when prices rise in one place, they rise everywhere. The current war against Iran has already raised oil prices significantly. Now, however, the United States is a major producer and exporter of oil and refined petroleum products. In addition to being less dependent on imports, the U.S. economy is much less oil-intensive than it used to be, producing more economic value with far less oil use today than in the past.
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IRAN WARTrump Should Aim to Neutralize the Iran Regime, Not Destroy It
A grassroots revolution in Iran sounds attractive, but it is far too risky. The likely outcome of dismantling the Islamic Republic is not stable democracy, but state fracture, political chaos, and radiating instability. Washington should instead aim for a defanged Islamic Republic.
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IRAN WARCIA Agents Successfully Executed a Plan for Regime Change in Iran in 1953 – but Trump Hasn’t Revealed Any Signs of a Plan
There are lessons in effecting political change in Iran that can be taken, ironically, from the very U.S.- and British-led clandestine campaign in the mid-20th century that set Iran on the road to the intense anti-Western and anti-American sentiment that has characterized its government policy for decades.
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The long view
CHINA WATCHThe Trump Administration’s Cyber Strategy Fundamentally Misunderstands China’s Threat
The adoption of an offense-first strategy is a dangerous miscalculation. It will not diminish Beijing’s campaigns, and it coincides with a significant deterioration of cyber defenses that have kept U.S. networks and Americans safe.
NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROLWeakening Nuclear Arms Control Increases Risks of Crisis Escalation
The expiration of the New START agreement between the United States and Russia on 5 February marks the near-complete collapse of an arms control system that once made nuclear competition predictable, verifiable and contained. The risk is not merely enlargement of nuclear arsenals, but the diminishment of safeguards against escalation, with increasing instability and shorter warning times.