• COMMON-SENSE NOTES // By Idris B. OdunewuPutin Takes Ukraine, Trump Takes Venezuela, So China Takes Taiwan, and While We're at It, Why Don’t France Take Mail and Burkina Faso

    We have arrived at the brave new doctrine of global affairs. The rules have not disappeared. They have simply been rewritten in invisible ink, legible only to those with enough power to ignore them. Welcome to the age of international relations by example. Please keep your hands inside the borders while they last.

  • VENEZUELA OPERATIONCan the U.S. “Run” Venezuela? Military Force Can Topple a Dictator, But It Cannot Create Political Authority or Legitimacy

    By Monica Duffy Toft

    Coercion may deliver short-term obedience, but it is counterproductive as a strategy. If Washington governs by force in Venezuela, it will repeat the failures of Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya: Power can topple regimes, but it cannot create political authority. Outside rule invites resistance, not stability.

  • VENEZUELA OPERATIONVenezuela—Indictments, Invasions, and the Constitution’s Crumbling Guardrails

    By Clark Neily

    The Constitution’s limits on foreign affairs power do not vanish simply because courts decline to enforce them. They persist both as structural commitments and as warnings. The fact that impeachment and political accountability may be the only remaining checks on such actions is not a solution; it is an increasingly hazardous pathology that puts America at far greater risk than any single foreign despot could, even one as brutal and destructive as Nicolás Maduro.

  • CHINA WATCHTrump’s Strikes on Venezuela Will Not Embolden China to Invade Taiwan

    By David Sacks

    There are reasons to criticize President Trump’s decision to strike Venezuela; however, giving China a green light to attack Taiwan is not one of them.

  • COMMON-SENSE NOTES // By Idris B. OdunewuWhen Conquest Becomes Precedent: Ukraine, Venezuela, Taiwan, and the Collapse of Restraint

    Global security policymakers face a choice. They can treat norms as tools to be used selectively, or as foundations to be defended consistently. The first path offers short term flexibility. The second offers long term stability.

  • CRITICAL MINERALSBehind Trump’s Peace Efforts: A Strategic Focus on Critical Minerals

    By Abi McGowan and Mariel Ferragamo

    President Trump has repeatedly claimed to have ended eight wars since he returned to office. Accessing critical minerals and resource extraction appear to be at the core of those diplomatic efforts.

  • DEMOCRACY WATCHThe First MAGA National Security Strategy

    By Rebecca Lissner

    Trump’s ideologically driven statement of strategic intent indicates that the United States could be willing to interfere abroad to promote an illiberal world—a stunning victory for the MAGA wing of the Republican Party.

  • LESSONS OF THE VIETNAM FAILUREBookshelf: War Lessons from Robert McNamara

    By Robert Wihtol

    Robert McNamara was the architect of the wasteful, unwinnable U.S. involvement in Vietnam. In retrospect, he stressed the importance of understanding local conditions and having an exit strategy: “Before each operation there should be a paper on how to get out. And if you can’t get out, don’t do it.” As the administration is considering expanding its questionable military efforts in the Caribbean into an invasion of Venezuela, it would do well to heed McNamara’s advice.

  • COMMON-SENSE NOTES // By Idris B. OdunewuFool Me Once… You Can’t Get Fooled Again: America Has Seen This Move Before

    If drug trafficking truly threatens American communities, the solution lies in intelligence cooperation, economic pressure, cross border law enforcement, and deep regional diplomacy, not in hammer-fist militarism.

  • AMATEUR HOURPeace Plan Presented by the U.S. to Ukraine Reflects Inexperienced, Unrealistic Handling of a Delicate Situation

    By Donald Heflin

    “It’s amateur hour. We’ve seen this before. With this administration, it puts a lot of very amateurish people – Rubio’s not one of them – in place in important offices, like Steve Witkoff, the special envoy for Russia and Ukraine who is also the special envoy for the Middle East. And they’ve gotten rid of all the professionals. They either just fired some or ran some off,” says Donald Heflin.

  • MANUFACTURINGU.S. Can’t Overcome Manufacturing Gap with China

    By Samir Tata

    The United States should not kid itself. It will not recover its manufacturing position from China in any foreseeable future. Assuming zero growth of China’s manufacturing sector for the next 20 years, closing the manufacturing gap would require U.S. manufacturing to grow at a torrid rate of 6 percent per year. That’s just implausible.

  • CRITICAL MINERALSG20 Johannesburg Endorses Critical Minerals Framework

    By Ajey Lele

    The Trump administration is trying to diversify critical minerals supply chains and reduce dependence on China, but this goal cannot be achieved without broad and deep cooperation with other countries. The U.S. absence from the 2025 G20 discussions on critical minerals weakens collective efforts to counterbalance China’s influence.

  • CHINA WATCHEconomic Deterrence in a China Contingency

    Deterring China from launching an attack on Taiwan is a central focus of U.S. and allied security planning. A new report explores a scenario involving a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, followed by an invasion of the Island, and discusses what economic measures the United States and its allies might employ to deter such aggression.

  • CHINA WATCHWorking with Japan and Korea to Compete with China on AI

    By Scott W. Harold

    Allies are an asymmetric advantage for the U.S. in its tech race with China.  New report looks at what makes Japan and South Korea critical partners for the United States in seeking to shape a world safe for democracy by leveraging the power of AI.

  • CRITICAL MINERALSEven Out of China’s Hands, Mines Still Rely on Its Equipment

    By Justin Bassi, James Corera, and Tilla Hoja

    The landmark critical minerals agreement between Australia and the United States is vital to both nations’ security and sovereignty. But the agreement signed carries an inherent vulnerability. The very partnership designed to reduce China’s coercive leverage is increasingly relying on Chinese technology to give effect to its objectives.