• IRAN WARStrategic Attack on Iran: Airpower’s Promises, Limits, and Lessons

    By Michael Schmitt

    Operation Epic Fury demonstrates that airpower is both essential and insufficient. Strategic success ultimately depends on altering Iranian behavior in ways that advance U.S. geopolitical objectives. Five months into a campaign that was originally promised to last weeks, Iran not only has not changed its behavior, but it now controls the vital Strait of Hormuz.

  • SOUTHEAST ASIAN SECURITYASEAN, Still Toothless, Is Losing Its Faith in the U.S.

    By Joshua Kurlantzick

    At the July meeting of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) foreign ministers, most of whom were already furious at the United States, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio did little to lower the temperature. But ASEAN also continued its trend of saying much while doing almost nothing.

  • TERRORISMU.S.–Nigeria Counter-Terror Cooperation

    By Miruthulani Murali

    The US Africa Command (AFRICOM) is leveraging U.S. intelligence capabilities to help the largely Nigeria-led ground forces with advanced surveillance, intelligence analysis, and joint planning in the fight against Islamist terrorists.

  • MIGRATIONCeuta’s Border Crisis and Europe’s Migration Paradox

    The continent may be seeing fewer irregular crossings overall, but it remains vulnerable to dramatic local shocks. As long as the EU combines a formal commitment to free movement with uneven external control and strong procedural protections, border crises like Ceuta will continue to expose the system’s contradictions.

  • IRAN WARClausewitz on Operation Epic Fury

    By Michael Schmitt

    The decision to launch the war and the manner in which it was managed violated foundational principles of war that have guided strategic and operational decision-making for well over a century. Given the prominence of these foundational principles in strategic thinking, it would seem that this was a war decided upon and guided at the strategic level of war by those who lacked not only the training, experience, and understanding to apply them effectively, but also the wisdom to listen to professionals in the security community, in and out of uniform, who surely knew them well.

  • ENERGY SECURITYExpert: Oil Is Rarely the Cause of War

    By Gro Lien Garbo

    It is a misconception to talk about ‘oil wars’ and great powers going to war to secure energy supplies, says a professor of political science.

  • CHINA WATCHBookshelf: The Next China Is Still China

    By John West

    Could another country replace China as the world’s economic growth leader, or could China reset for a new phase of economic leadership? This is the key question Joe Ngai and Nick Leung address in their new book.

  • IRAN WARThe Danger of U.S.‑Iran Ceasefire Agreement Is What It Leaves Out

    By Monica Duffy Toft

    To most onlookers, the contradictions between the U.S. and Iran’s – and Israel’s — interpretations of the framework agreement may seem like confusion, bad faith or evidence that the agreement is already unraveling. But after more than two decades studying how wars end and whether the peace holds, I have learned that contradictions are often a sign the negotiations are working. The real danger lies elsewhere: in what the U.S.-Iran agreement leaves out.

  • IRAN WARThe Lesson of the Iran War May Be Staying Power, Not Firepower

    By Justin Bassi and Adel Abdel Ghafar

    Any assessment of the war between the United States and Iran must come to grips with two seemingly contradictory observations. The US definitely secured a military win and the Iranian regime perhaps emerged strategically stronger. Is the world both better off and worse off? Definitely maybe.

  • IRAN WARWas It Worth It? The True Cost of Trump’s Iran War

    By Max Boot

    The war ended with a deal that gives Iran sanctions relief, reconstruction funds, and the ability to charge tolls on the world’s most critical waterway. While the White House may call it a victory, the costs suggest otherwise.

  • NUCLEAR WEAPONSThe Complications That China’s Build-Up Brings to Nuclear Balance

    By Paul Dibb

    Any talks between the U.S. and Russia over renewing the expired nuclear arms agreement must soon include China as a nuclear superpower. Other aspects of the global nuclear arms landscape are not getting any simpler, either.

  • WAR & PEACEConflicts Between States Highest Level Since World War II

    A new report documents eight interstate conflicts in 2025 – twice as many as the previous year and the highest number recorded since 1946.

  • LOOSE CANNON“If He Had Not Misspoken, Perhaps He Did Not Really Mean What He Said”

    Two weeks ago, referring to U.S. ally Oman, Trump warned that if Oman did not “behave just like everybody else,” the United States will “have to blow them up.” Perhaps, some Middle East observers wondered, he meant to say “Iran,” not “Oman.” Perhaps he did not really mean what he said.

  • LOOSE CANNONHow to Lose Friends and Alienate Allies: Trump’s Approach to Oman

    By Adel Abdel Ghafar

    Allies across the Indo-Pacific and Europe are also watching. When even a quiet, reliable partner of nearly 200 years can be publicly threatened, the message is clear that today’s ally can quickly become tomorrow’s target. 

  • SUPPLY CHAINSThe Strait of Hormuz: The Supply Chain Loop That Broke the World

    By Behrouz Bakhtiari

    It took only five days after the attack on Iran by the United States and Israel in late February for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital energy and maritime chokepoints.Understanding why the strait stayed open for so long, and why it’s not open now, requires thinking not in terms of current entities but in terms of loops.