• TRADE WARSThe U.S. Trade Deficit: How Much Does It Matter?

    By CFR.org Editors

    President Trump has made reducing U.S. trade deficits a priority, but economists disagree over how much they matter and what to do about them.

  • TRADE WARSTrump’s Obsession with Trade Deficits Has No Basis in Economics. And It’s a Bad Reason for Tariffs

    By Nigel Driffield

    President Donald Trump believes that if a country has a trade surplus with the U.S. it is somehow playing unfairly and needs to be dealt with. But anyone who understands the basics of international economics will recognize the fallacy in both of these beliefs. That the U.S. has a trade deficit is not a sign that the rest of the world is “ripping it off.” It is a reflection of an affluent society with relatively high wages buying products from countries that can produce them more cheaply. Trump’s tariffs will hurt Americans first – basic international economics is clear on that too.

  • ISOLATIONISM No Nation Is an Island: The Dangers of Modern U.S. Isolationism

    By Idris B. Odunewu

    The resurgence of isolationist sentiment in American politics is understandable but misguided. While the desire to refocus on domestic renewal is justified, retreating from the world will not bring the security, prosperity, or sovereignty that its proponents promise. On the contrary, it invites instability, diminishes U.S. influence, and erodes the democratic order the U.S. helped forge.

  • TRADE WARSIn Trade War with the U.S., China Holds a Lot More Cards Than Trump May Think − in Fact, It Might Have a Winning Hand

    By Linggong Kong

    While Trump’s tariffs will inevitably hurt parts of the Chinese economy, Beijing appears to have far more cards to play this time around, compared to the tariff conflict between the two countries during Trump’s first term in the White Houser. It has the tools to inflict meaningful damage on U.S. interests – and perhaps more importantly, Trump’s all-out tariff war is providing China with a rare and unprecedented strategic opportunity.

  • TRADE WARSTrump Thinks Tariffs Can Bring Back the Glory Days of U.S. Manufacturing. Here’s Why He’s Wrong

    By James Scott

    Trump’s “liberation day” tariffshave one thing in common – they are being applied to goods only.They are the perfect example of Trump’s peculiar focus on trade in goods and, by extension, his nostalgic but outdated obsession with manufacturing.Trump’s thinking is likely related to a combination of nostalgia for a bygone (somewhat imagined) age of manufacturing,and concern over the loss of quality jobs that provide a solid standard of living for blue collar workers – a core part of his political base.But nostalgia is not a sensible basis for forming economic policy.

  • THE RUSSIA CONNECTIONCan Europe Defend Itself Against a Nuclear-Armed Russia?

    By Christina Pazzanese

    National security expert details what’s being done, what can be done as U.S. appears to rethink decades-long support. Regarding the U.S. nuclear umbrella, which has covered Europe since the 1950s, Richard Hooker says: “Is it reliable? I wouldn’t think so. If Putin were to threaten or actually use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine or, let’s say in Estonia, would the administration respond with nuclear threats of its own? Personally, I have my doubts.”

  • THE RUSSIA CONNECTION“A Catastrophic Blow”: U.S. Shuts Unit Investigating War Crimes in Ukraine

    By Ray Furlong

    Offering more support for Russia’s policy goals, the Trump administration has cut all funding for efforts to document and gather evidence on Russian war crimes committed in Ukraine. Experts described the administration’s move as a “a catastrophic blow” to efforts to document war crimes and bring people to justice.

  • TARRIFSCongress: Retake Control of Tariffs and Let Businesses Get Back to the “Vision Thing”

    By James Wallar

    The Trump administration’s recent tariff actions are undermining congressional authority and sowing chaos for U.S. businesses. Lawmakers should reassert their constitutional power to correct course.

  • FORTRESS EUROPECould the EU Become a Military Superpower?

    By Rikard Jozwiak

    Only two weeks after a European Union summit where the bloc’s leaders pledged to spend billions on defense in a “watershed moment for Europe,” they are returning to Brussels to solidify plans for strengthening Europe’s defense autonomy amid ongoing doubts about the US commitment to protecting European nations and sustaining military support for Ukraine.

  • CRITICAL MINERLSTo Avoid a Ukraine-Style Quid Pro Quo, Australia Needs to Work with the U.S. on Critical Minerals

    By Raelene Lockhorst and John Coyne

    With Donald Trump back in the White House, Washington is operating under a hard-nosed, transactional framework in which immediate returns rather than shared values measure alliances. For Australia, this signals a need to rethink its approach to the US relationship. A key step would be to work with the United States in the extraction and processing of Australian critical minerals.

  • POST-U.S. NATOEurope Will Need Thousands More Tanks and Troops to Mount a Credible Military Defense without the U.S.

    By Patricia Garcia-Duran Huet

    Implementing a new defense strategy will mean answering many difficult questions, including whether an EU defense force would involve all EU member states, the potential roles of antagonistic EU members like Hungary and Slovakia (both pro-Trump and pro-Russia), and those of non-EU NATO members such as the UK, Norway, or even Canada.

  • POST-U.S. NATOFrench Nuclear Deterrence for Europe: How Effective Could It Be Against Russia?

    By Benoît Grémare

    Does France have the capacity to defend Europe? Would the deployment of the French nuclear umbrella in Eastern Europe make Europe strategically autonomous, giving it the means to defend itself independently?

  • U TURN: U.S. NEW RUSSIA POLICYUndermining Post-Cold War U.S. Foreign Policy: The Trump-Vance Approach to Ukraine and Russia

    The U.S. post-Cold War foreign policy has been built on principles of deterrence, alliance-building, and the defense of democratic nations against authoritarian threats. Trump and JD Vance’s approach to Ukraine and Russia represents a fundamental departure from these principles, undermining decades of bipartisan commitment to countering Russian aggression.

  • U TURN: U.S. NEW RUSSIA POLICYHow Trump’s Spat with Zelensky Threatens the Security of the World – Including the U.S.

    By Natasha Lindstaedt

    After the catastrophic press conference on February 28 between Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and US president Donald Trump, it is clear that there has been a global realignment. What the press conference revealed was that Trump’s position is a lot closer to Russian president Vladmir Putin than long-time US ally Ukraine, and also that other US allies cannot count on Washington to promote the global world order.

  • TRADE WARSAmerica’s Trade Wars: Past and Present

    By Alex Gendler

    Trump’s trade dispute with China has expanded to Canada and Mexico. But this isn’t the first time the U.S. has conducted trade wars with adversaries and allies alike