• ARCTIC STRATEGYNew U.S. Arctic Strategy Focused on Russian, Chinese Inroads

    By Jeff Seldin

    The United States is looking to boost intelligence collection in the Arctic and enhance cooperation with allies in the region, to prevent Russia and China from exploiting the cold and icy northern region at America’s expense.

  • CRITICAL MINERALSNot Just Beijing’s Doing: Market Factors Are Also Hitting Rare Earths Prices

    By David Uren

    Have depressed rare earths prices been engineered by the Chinese state to snuff out non-Chinese rivals before they get going? Or do they simply reflect a weak market, with demand rising more slowly than was expected by the promotors of a slew of new projects?

  • CHINA WATCHWill China's Economy Ever Overtake the U.S.'s?

    By Nik Martin

    China’s ambition to be the world’s largest economy has been dented by COVID-19, the real estate crisis and an aging population. Boosting growth will be the prime focus at a Communist Party meeting.

  • SPACE SECURITYA Nuclear Sword of Damocles in Orbit

    By Malcolm Davis

    Russia is developing a nuclear-weapons-based anti-satellite (ASAT) capability, and the Western democracies must work together to prevent Moscow from deploying such a weapon. That will demand new and innovative thinking on space domain awareness and space control by the US and its allies. A continued drift forward through a strategy of hope that Russia will honor its obligations under space law even as the West is under direct threat from Moscow is a strategy for failure.

  • CHINA WATCHDecline of American Students in China Could Mean Fewer Experts

    By Bo Gu

    The number of Americans studying in China has dropped dramatically in recent years from around 11,000 in 2019 to 800 this year, and the slump is so bad that some China scholars worry the United States could lose a generation of “China experts” as a result.

  • COAST GUARDHow to Equip the U.S. Coast Guard Against China’s Grey-Zone Operations

    By Molly Pflaum

    America’s allies in the Indo-Pacific are getting pretty familiar with China’s grey-zone maritime behavior, but the United States itself is ill-prepared for dealing with it. Yet it should be prepared. The U.S. must not only counter the threat to its national security posed by China’s coercive operations, but also support its allies against Chinese efforts to rewrite the rule of law in the region.

  • High Noon at Second Thomas Shoal

    By Euan Graham

    China has identified the beleaguered garrison at Second Thomas Shoal as a weak link among the South China Sea features physically occupied by the Philippines and, by extension, the US-Philippines alliance.

  • NATORecord Number of NATO Allies to Hit 2% Defense Spending Goal

    By Henry-Laur Allik

    NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has announced that more NATO member states than originally expected were set to fulfill the 2% target of GDP defense spending this year. The NATO defense investment target was agreed upon in 2014. Across the alliance, all member states aside from Slovenia and Italy have upped their defense budget.

  • NATOJoining NATO Binds Countries to Defend Each Other – but This Commitment Is Not Set in Stone

    By Dan Reiter and Brian Greenhill

    At the root of debates over policy toward alliances such as NATO is the assumption that NATO requires its members to step in and help with defense if another member of the alliance is attacked, but it is important to understand that, in reality, alliance agreements are more flexible than people think. In practice, it is possible for the U.S. and other Western countries to stay out of a conflict that involves a NATO country without having to break their alliance commitments.

  • ECONOMIC WARFARENew Study Reveals the Costs of Sanctions

    By Gunnar Bartsch

    What effect do economic sanctions have on the countries affected, such as Russia or Iran? Economic sanctions can be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, they usually reduce gross domestic product and thus prosperity in the affected countries, as intended. On the other hand, however, they can also have a severe impact on the economies of the sanctioning countries.

  • CHINA WATCHIs China Exporting Its Political Model To The World? A New Report Says Yes.

    By Reid Standish

    Debate has raged for decades over whether Beijing is actively exporting its authoritarian system abroad, but a new report based on a trove of previously unexamined government documents shows how China is experimenting with spreading its model to other countries.

  • CRITICAL MINERALSChina’s Control and Coercion in Critical Minerals

    By Ian Satchwell

    Markets for critical minerals are no longer shaping up to be the next components of the global economy to be dominated by China. They already are. While Western nations were sleeping, China built vertically integrated supply chains for several critical minerals vital to the energy transition and high technology applications, including defense equipment.

  • ARGUMENT: NEEDED: AI HOTLINEThe U.S. and China Need an AI Incidents Hotline

    The United States and China have been talking about AI security, but Christian Ruhl writes that this is not enough. Given the rapid rate of progress of frontier AI research, “diplomats will need to be quick to come up with risk-mitigation measures if they want to be more than a talk shop. Moreover, these measures will need to be ‘future proof,’ meaning they can’t focus solely on current capabilities that will remain relevant for no more than a few months; risk mitigation needs to be flexible to respond to ever-more capable models.”

  • THE AMERICASRemoving Cuba from List of Countries ‘Not Fully Cooperating’ Over Terrorism May Presage Wider Rapprochement – If Politics Allows

    By Jason M. Blazakis

    The U.S. State Department removed Cuba from its list of countries “not fully cooperating” with anti-terrorism efforts in mid-May 2024, but you would be forgiven for not noticing. Despite the low-key nature of the announcement, taking Cuba off the list is a big deal. The move is a potential step toward a rapprochement between Washington and Havana.

  • MIGRATIONEurope’s Migration Dilemma

    By Kali Robinson and Diana Roy

    Hundreds of thousands of migrants made the dangerous journey to Europe in 2023, fleeing war, poverty, and natural disasters. The increase in arrivals has fueled support for far-right political parties.