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WAR IN UKRAINENo Game Changer: Russian Mobilization May Slow, Not Stop, Ukrainian Offensive
The Kremlin’s aim to mobilize up to 300,000 men to fight in Ukraine faces significant obstacles and — even if achieved — may not prevent Russia from losing more ground or losing the war, analysts said.
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ARGUMENT: NUCLEAR DETERRENCEHow to Deter Russian Nuclear Use in Ukraine—and Respond if Deterrence Fails
Russia might use nuclear weapons to achieve its goals in the war in Ukraine—a risk that has only grown as Russian forces confront Ukrainian counteroffensives. Such nuclear use could advance the Kremlin’s military aims, undermine US interests globally, and set off a humanitarian catastrophe unseen since 1945. What should the United States do to deter such a disaster – and if deterrence fails, what should be the U.S. response?
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ARGUMENT: WAR IN SPACEGetting Serious About the Threat of High Altitude Nuclear Detonation
The ongoing commercialization of space with cost effective bulk electronics presents a tantalizing target for nations with a space disadvantage to target long-before a conflict could escalate to nuclear exchange. Robert “Tony” Vincent writes “the Department of Defense should get serious about planning for and countering the threat of high altitude nuclear detonations, starting with its various science and technology funding organizations.”
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NUCLEAR WARGoing Nuclear
Rather than fretting about the craziness of nuclear use, efforts might more usefully be put into preparing for the moment when Vladimir Putin realizes that he has lost and may seek to hold on to Crimea. At this time all the issues connected with ending this war – sanctions, reparations, war crimes, prisoner exchanges, and security guarantees – would need to be addressed. We may find it difficult to imagine that Putin can lose, and wonder about how well he will cope with his failed aggression, but it is entirely possible that at some point he will run out of options, and have to look failure in the eye.
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ARGUMENT: RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINEEscalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy
Any conflict with Russia will always be implicitly nuclear in nature. If it is not managed, then the logic of such a war is to escalate to nuclear use. “The United States needs to develop its own strategy for escalation management, and a stronger comfort level with the realities of nuclear war,” Michael Kofman and Anya Loukianova Fink write.
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ELECTRIC VEHICLESDHS Debuts First Fully Electric Law Enforcement Vehicle
DHS became the first federal agency to debut a battery electric vehicle (EV) fitted for performing law enforcement functions. The Ford Mustang Mach-E is the first of a variety of EVs DHS plans to field across its varied law enforcement missions throughout the United States.
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CHINA WATCHU.S. Is Falling Behind China in Key Technologies: Experts
The United States has fallen behind China in the development of several key technologies, and it now faces an uncertain future in which other countries could challenge U.S. historic dominance in the development of cutting-edge technology. A new report envisions a future where China, not the U.S., captures the trillions of dollars of income generated by the new technological advances and uses its leverage to make the case that autocracy, not democracy, is the superior form of government.
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WAR IN UKRAINERussia Resorts to 'Illegal' Regional Mobilization to Fill Out Its Ranks in Ukraine War
By all accounts except the Kremlin’s, Russia is struggling with military manpower shortages as its invasion of Ukraine continues in its seventh month. Moscow has shied away from declaring war and mobilizing its full military reserves, and instead, has relied largely on contract soldiers recruited from remote and impoverished regions.
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FORENSICSA New Strategy to Speed Up Cold Case Investigations
Solving crimes with forensic genetic genealogy is slow and complicated. A new mathematical analysis could crack cases 10 times faster.
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COMMUNICATION SECURITYSecurity-Focused, 5G Wireless Test Range
Researchers have opened the nation’s first open-air, 5G wireless test range focused exclusively on security testing, training and technology development. The range will be used by government, academic and industry collaborators. Although limited 5G service is available in selected cities across the country, widespread adoption is still years away.
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EARTHQUAKESCracking the Secrets to Earthquake Safety, One Shake Simulation at a Time
A new experimental capability, designed to replicate realistic earthquakes in the laboratory, paired with the world’s fastest supercomputers, will help lead to resilient buildings and infrastructure across the U.S.
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SURVEILLANCEMore Governments Use Spyware to Monitor Their People, Compromising Privacy
The right to privacy is under siege as an increasing number of governments are using spyware to keep tabs on their people. Many governments are using modern digital networked technologies to monitor, control and oppress their populations.
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WAR IN UKRAINEGradually, Then Suddenly
For the past few days we have been witnessing a remarkable Ukrainian offensive in Kharkiv. We have the spectacle of a bedraggled army in retreat It would be premature to pronounce a complete Ukrainian victory in the war because of one successful and unexpected breakthrough. But what has happened over the past few days is of historic importance. This offensive has overturned much of what was confidently assumed about the course of the war.
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WAR IN UKRAINERussia’s Problems on the Battlefield Stem from Failures at the Top
The blistering Ukrainian advance into Russian-held territory has invited serious questions about the conflict’s conclusion. It is now reasonable to consider the looming possibility of a Russian defeat, not just in terms of their modest objective of consolidating control over the Donbas region, but across the entire conflict. The rigid and inflexible command structure hampering Russian forces on the battlefield can be linked back to both Putin’s coup-proofing efforts and attitudes left over from the nation’s Soviet past.
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EOD/IED & COUNTERMINE INITIATIVESIdentifying and Neutralizing New Explosive Threats
The IED threats from insurgent characterized the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, but now the U.S. military is focusing on neutralizing bombs and mines that it could face in future conflicts against more advanced adversaries. DSI October 2022 EOD/IED & Countermine Symposium will highlight current initiatives toward identifying and neutralizing explosive threats to the homeland and critical infrastructure.
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The long view
ARGUMENT: THREAT LANDSCAPEFive Years After “Unite the Right”: Reflections on Charlottesville for Today’s Threat Landscape
Five years ago, racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists from across the United States traveled to Charlottesville, Virginia for the “Unite the Right” rally. Nicholas Rasmussen and Sarah Kenny write that “Unite the Right” is best appreciated as a watershed moment in U.S. politics. “With the clear vision of hindsight, the incidents in Charlottesville five years ago sounded a wakeup call about where the United States may be headed.” The very real threat “of political violence and radicalization that flow from the highly toxic political climate we currently live in, make for a turbulent domestic threat landscape in both city parks and virtual chatrooms.”
ARGUMENT: POLITICAL ASSASSINATIONThe Accelerating Threat of the Political Assassination
The pattern of terrorism in recent years has arguably been trending in the direction of political assassination, especially in the United States. Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware write that assassins have long believed that their vicious acts would change the course of history. “The emerging trend is due in no small part to the reemergence of so-called “accelerationism” as a distinct violent extremist strategy. For extremists seeking to sow chaos and speed up some cataclysmic societal collapse, high-profile politicians provide an attractive target.”
FOOD SECURITYNuclear War Would Cause Global Famine
More than 5 billion people would die of hunger following a full-scale nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia, according to a global study that estimates post-conflict crop production. Even a regional nuclear conflict would devastate crop production.
ARGUMENT: DUAL-USE TECHNOLOGYReliance on Dual-Use Technology is a Trap
The current approach to promoting the use of emerging technology by the Pentagon is for emerging technology companies to work with the Department of Defense is to build commercial applications first and only then move into defense. But the notion of developing “technologies for the commercial market first and only then slap some green paint on them so that they can begin exploring the U.S. defense market” is untenable, Jake Chapman writes. “A better solution would enable entrepreneurs to focus on solving defense challenges by making the Department of Defense a better customer.”
ARGUMENT: RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINEEscalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy
Any conflict with Russia will always be implicitly nuclear in nature. If it is not managed, then the logic of such a war is to escalate to nuclear use. “The United States needs to develop its own strategy for escalation management, and a stronger comfort level with the realities of nuclear war,” Michael Kofman and Anya Loukianova Fink write.
ARGUMENT: NUCLEAR DETERRENCEHow to Deter Russian Nuclear Use in Ukraine—and Respond if Deterrence Fails
Russia might use nuclear weapons to achieve its goals in the war in Ukraine—a risk that has only grown as Russian forces confront Ukrainian counteroffensives. Such nuclear use could advance the Kremlin’s military aims, undermine US interests globally, and set off a humanitarian catastrophe unseen since 1945. What should the United States do to deter such a disaster – and if deterrence fails, what should be the U.S. response?