• ARGUMENT: NUCLEAR DETERRENCEHow to Deter Russian Nuclear Use in Ukraine—and Respond if Deterrence Fails

    Russia might use nuclear weapons to achieve its goals in the war in Ukraine—a risk that has only grown as Russian forces confront Ukrainian counteroffensives. Such nuclear use could advance the Kremlin’s military aims, undermine US interests globally, and set off a humanitarian catastrophe unseen since 1945. What should the United States do to deter such a disaster – and if deterrence fails, what should be the U.S. response?

  • NUCLEAR WARGoing Nuclear

    By Lawrence Freedman

    Rather than fretting about the craziness of nuclear use, efforts might more usefully be put into preparing for the moment when Vladimir Putin realizes that he has lost and may seek to hold on to Crimea. At this time all the issues connected with ending this war – sanctions, reparations, war crimes, prisoner exchanges, and security guarantees – would need to be addressed. We may find it difficult to imagine that Putin can lose, and wonder about how well he will cope with his failed aggression, but it is entirely possible that at some point he will run out of options, and have to look failure in the eye.

  • ARGUMENT: RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINEEscalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy

    Any conflict with Russia will always be implicitly nuclear in nature. If it is not managed, then the logic of such a war is to escalate to nuclear use. “The United States needs to develop its own strategy for escalation management, and a stronger comfort level with the realities of nuclear war,” Michael Kofman and Anya Loukianova Fink write.

  • IRAN’S NUKESIran Nuclear Weapons Breakout Time Remains at Zero

    A new report from the Institute for Science and International Security summarizes and assesses information in the (IAEA) quarterly safeguards report for 7 September 2022. The main finding: Iran’s breakout time, that is, the time between a political decision to produce a nuclear weapon and the completion of such weapon, remains at zero.

  • FOOD SECURITYNuclear War Would Cause Global Famine

    More than 5 billion people would die of hunger following a full-scale nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia, according to a global study that estimates post-conflict crop production. Even a regional nuclear conflict would devastate crop production.

  • IRAN’S NUKESU.S. Ready to Conclude Iran Nuclear Deal Based on EU's 'Final Draft'

    The United States is ready to “quickly conclude a deal” to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement on the basis of proposals put forward on August 8 by the European Union, a State Department spokesperson said.

  • IRAN’S NUKESIran’s Latest Advanced Centrifuge Deployment

    By David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Spencer Faragasso

    Iran just announced that it has recently installed or plans to install in the near term almost 1570 new advanced centrifuges. This represents a 70 percent increase from the number of advanced centrifuges installed as of last May. Iran’s announcement puts it well on its way to achieving about 4450 installed advanced centrifuges at all three enrichment plants by the end of 2022.

  • NUCLEAR WEAPONSWhy Are Nuclear Weapons So Hard to Get Rid Of? Because They’re Tied Up in Nuclear Countries’ Sense of Right and Wrong

    By Thomas E. Doyle, II

    States’ motivations for keeping nuclear weapons are often perceived as rooted in hard-nosed security strategy, with morality considered as irrelevant or even self-defeating. I see these explanations as incomplete. To understand leaders’ motives – and therefore effectively negotiate the elimination of nuclear weapons – we must acknowledge that policymakers express underlying moral concerns as strategic concerns. History shows that such moral concerns often form the foundations of nuclear strategy, even if they’re deeply buried.

  • NUCLEAR WARHow Nuclear War Would Affect Earth Today

    Nine nations currently control more than 13,000 nuclear weapons in the world. A new study provides stark information on the global impact of nuclear war. Nuclear firestorms would release soot and smoke into the upper atmosphere that would block out the Sun resulting in crop failure around the world. In the first month following nuclear detonation, average global temperatures would plunge by about 13 degrees Fahrenheit, cooling the oceans and resulting in sea ice expanding by more than 6 million square miles and 6 feet deep in some basins, blocking major ports.

  • North Korea’s ThreatNorth Korea’s Military Capabilities

    North Korea could have the material for more than one hundred nuclear weapons, according to analysts’ estimates. It has successfully tested missiles that could strike the United States with a nuclear warhead. North Korea has the world’s fourth-largest military, with more than 1.2 million personnel, and is believed to possess chemical and biological weapons. Despite UN Security Council sanctions and past summits involving North Korea, South Korea, and the United States on denuclearization, Pyongyang continues to test ballistic missiles.

  • NUCLEAR WEAPONSGlobal Nuclear Arsenals Are Expected to Grow

    The nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea)—continue to modernize their nuclear arsenals and although the total number of nuclear weapons declined slightly between January 2021 and January 2022, the number will probably increase in the next decade.

  • IRAN’S NUKESIran's Removal of More Cameras Could Be a “Fatal Blow” to Reviving Nuclear Deal: IAEA

    Iran has started removing 27 surveillance cameras from nuclear sites across the country, further reducing the IAEA’s ability to monitor Iran’s nuclear program, the head of the UN nuclear watchdog has said. Iran’s move “poses a serious challenge to our ability to continue working there,” Rafael Grossi, IAEA director-general, said.

  • IRAN’S NUKESIran Can Produce Nuclear Explosive Now, and 2 Bombs within One Month of a Breakout: IAEA

    By David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Andrea Stricker

    The IAEA’s new report on Iran’s nuclear status says that Iran’s breakout timeline is now at zero. Iran has enough 60 percent enriched uranium – highly enriched uranium, or HEU — to be able to produce nuclear explosive. If it wanted to enrich the 60 percent HEU to 90 percent HEU —typically called weapon-grade uranium (WGU) — it could do so within weeks. Whether or not Iran enriches its HEU up to 90 percent, it can have enough HEU for two nuclear weapons within one month after starting breakout.

  • ARGUMENT: VIRTUOUS ESCALATIONWestern Leaders Should Take Escalation over Ukraine Seriously

    The United States and members states of the EU and NATO have taken significant action to assist Ukraine and pressure Russia, but there is increasing pressure to “do more.” Michael Lopate and Bear Braumoeller write that as we provide Ukraine with more sophisticated weapons, and as calls grow for allowing Ukraine to push Russian forces back over the border without requiring any concessions on the part of Ukraine, “we should be clear-eyed about the risks of escalation as we seek that victory.” They write that their research shows that “War escalation is extremely unpredictable, and most people don’t appreciate just how easily and quickly wars can escalate to shocking levels of lethality.”

  • IRAN’S NUKESThreshold Reached: Iranian Nuclear Breakout Timeline Now at Zero

    By David Albright and Sarah Burkhard

    Iran has crossed a new, dangerous threshold: Iran’s breakout time is now at zero. It has enough 60 percent enriched uranium, or highly enriched uranium (HEU), to be assured it could fashion a nuclear explosive. If Iran wanted to further enrich its 60 percent HEU up to weapon-grade HEU, or 90 percent, it could do so within a few weeks with only a few of its advanced centrifuge cascades.