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CHINA WATCHChina's South China Sea Tactics Push Manila to Become More Assertive
In a bold move, the Philippine coast guard this week publicly cut loose a floating barrier installed by China near a disputed South China Sea lagoon, highlighting how Beijing’s actions are fueling forceful responses, analysts say. It also could help rally other countries in the region to stand up to Beijing.
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U.S. & BRICSThe BRICS Expansion and the Global Balance of Power
In early September, the BRICS group of five countries with emerging economies announced it would expand its ranks by six nations. This would loosely link together countries representing about 30 percent of global GDP and 43 percent of global oil production. MIT political scientist Taylor Fravel examines the potential and limitations of a bigger BRICS group of countries — and what it means for the U.S.
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CYBERSECURITYU.S., Latin America to Boost Cybersecurity
Countries up and down the Western Hemisphere are looking to eliminate weaknesses in their cyber infrastructure that could give potential adversaries, including China and Russia, the ability to do extensive damage by exploiting a single vulnerability.
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NUCLEAR WEAPONSIs Myanmar About to Go Nuclear?
The specter of the world’s first ‘Buddhist bomb’ still hangs over Myanmar. It has been given impetus by the coup in February 2021 and the military regime’s increasingly close relations with Russia. The question must be asked: why is the junta expending precious resources on a nuclear reactor of arguable utility when it is already struggling with a costly civil war, an economy in dire straits, the collapse of government services and widespread poverty and hardship?
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ARGUMENT: CRITICAL MINERALSThe U.S. Government Should Stockpile More Critical Minerals
The 2022 National Defense Strategy describes China as America’s “most consequential strategic competitor for the coming decades.” Yet, Gregory Wischer and Jack Little write, the United States is unprepared to fight a major war against the Chinese. “A longer, more intense U.S.-Chinese conflict over Taiwan would expose even deeper cracks in the defense industrial base and undermine the U.S. military’s ability to defeat the Chinese military: The United States lacks sufficient stocks of critical minerals to support the defense industrial base, from nickel in superalloys for jet engines to rare earth elements in magnets for guided munitions,” they write.
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CHINA WATCHTech War: Is Huawei's New Chip a Threat?
The US-China chip war is heating up after Huawei launched a new phone featuring technology that Washington was hoping to keep out of China’s reach: China’s largest chipmaker SMIC has surprised the West by creating a homegrown 7nm chip. Will the United States respond with more sanctions?
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NIJJAR AFFAIRWhat Might We Learn from the Nijjar Affair and the Breakdown in Canada–India Relations?
Khalistani activism overseas—not just in Canada, but also in the United Kingdom, United States and Australia—is a major concern for New Delhi, not a marginal one, as some governments might think. And whatever has occurred in this particular case, India has long since shed its earlier adherence to “strategic restraint”: it is clear that India is willing to use force and take risks to defend its interests. Moreover, this muscularity is popular within India and segments of the Indian diaspora overseas.
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NIJJAR AFFAIRCanada-India Tensions Over Killing of Sikh Separatist: What to Know
Canada’s stunning allegations of an India-directed plot to kill Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar has stirred frictions between two major democracies and raised questions about India’s global actions to protect its interests.
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ARGUMENT: CYBERTHREATS & NUCLEAR CREDIILITYThe Cyber Threat to Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Most cyber scholars looking at the nexus of cyber campaigns/operations and the nuclear weapons enterprise—command and control, communications, and delivery systems—focus on the consequences of targeting the enterprise through cyber operations during militarized crises or armed conflicts between nuclear powers. Michael P. Fischerkeller writes that there is, however, a third geopolitical condition—competition short of crisis and armed conflict—where the consequences, although of a different ilk, are no less severe.
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EXTREMISMExtremists Have Turned Texas into a Hotbed for Hate: Report
Texas continues to be a hotbed for extremism and antisemitism, driven by the heavy presence of racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists (RMVEs) and anti-LGBTQ+ groups that are headquartered or active in the state.
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POWER GRIDDOE Invests $39 Million to Support a 21st Century Electric Grid
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced up to $39 million for projects across DOE’s National Laboratories to help modernize the electricity grid. The investments will support the development and deployment of concepts, tools, and technologies needed to measure, analyze, predict, protect, and control the grid of the future while incorporating equity and the best available climate science.
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CYBERCRIMEIncrease in Chinese-Language Malware Could “Challenge” Russian Dominance of Cybercrime: Report
For decades, Russian and eastern European hackers have dominated the cybercrime underworld. These days they may face a challenge from a new contender: China. Researchers have detected an increase in the spread of Chinese language malware through email campaigns since early 2023, signaling a surge in Chinese cybercrime activity and a new trend in the global threat landscape.
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EXTREMISMHow Local Police Could Help Prevent Another January 6th-Style Insurrection
As scholars who study street gangs and far-right groups, we see that the larger law enforcement community continues to focus – we believe mistakenly – on the belief that, like terrorist groups, white supremacists are coordinated in ideology and intent. Evidence shows that perception actually diverts local police agencies’ attention from identifying and managing these groups. We believe that if police had treated Proud Boys as members of a street gang from the group’s inception in 2016, the events of Jan. 6, 2021, might have been avoided, or at least reduced in severity.
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AIWalking the Artificial Intelligence and National Security Tightrope
Artificial intelligence (AI) presents nations’ security as many challenges as it does opportunities. While it could create mass-produced malware, lethal autonomous weapons systems, or engineered pathogens, AI solutions could also prove the counter to these threats. Regulating AI to maximize national security capabilities and minimize the risks presented to them will require focus, caution and intent.
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MIGRATIONEritrea Stoking Conflicts Between Its Migrants Abroad
The repressive regime of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has forced many Eritreans to seek refuge abroad. Some commentators believe Afwerki is stoking conflict between Eritrean migrants and their host nations.
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More headlines
The long view
THE RUSSIA CONNECTION Putin’s Victims: A Long List Getting Longer
Vladimir Putin’s intelligence operatives have killed many critics of the regime, both in Russia and abroad — among them opposition politicians, journalists, academics, artists, former spies, oligarchs, and businesspeople. Russian intelligence operatives, however, have also killed Russians who were not outspoken critics of the regime, leading Russia experts to speculate that Putin has adopted a milder version of Stalin’s tactics of random killings in order to instill a generalized sense of fear and insecurity among members of the Russian elite. The article offers a list of 175 dead Russians — 30 businesspeople; 23 politicians, diplomats, academics, and senior military officers; and 122 journalists — who were killed, or who died under mysterious, often exceedingly implausible, circumstances, since Putin came to power.
ARGUMENT: REGULATING COMMERCIAL SPYWAREThe Scourge of Commercial Spyware—and How to Stop It
Years of public revelations have spotlighted a shadowy set of spyware companies selling and servicing deeply intrusive surveillance technologies that are used against journalists, activists, lawyers, politicians, diplomats, and others. Democratic nations (thus far) lag behind the United States in executing spyware-related policy commitments.
GUNSStudy Confirms Link Between Concealed Carry Weapons and Gun Homicide Rates
Concealed guns significantly impact homicide rates and public safety, according to a Rutgers study that found an increase in homicides based on the number of concealed carry weapons licenses issued.
SOCIAL MEDIAGovernment Regulation Can Effectively Curb Social-Media Dangers
Social media posts such as those that promote terrorism and hate; spread medical misinformation; encourage dangerous challenges that put teen lives at risk; or those that glamorize suicide, pose a significant threat to society. New EU rules require social media platforms to take down flagged posts within 24 hours – and modelling shows that’s fast enough to have a dramatic effect on the spread of harmful content.
EXTREMISTSProsecuting Extremists in the U.K.: Charging, Prosecution, and Sentencing Outcomes
There is a lack of data regarding prosecution and sentencing for terrorism and terrorism-related offences across the three legal jurisdictions of the UK (England and Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland). Does the prosecution landscape (charging, prosecution, and sentencing) vary in the UK for extremist actors depending upon the legal jurisdiction?
COVID RESPONSESweden During the Pandemic: Pariah or Paragon?
By Johan Norberg
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Sweden stood out from other countries, stubbornly refusing lockdowns, school closures, and mask mandates. The main difference between Sweden’s strategy and that of most other countries was that it mostly relied on voluntary adaptation rather than government force. It seems likely that Sweden did much better than other countries in terms of the economy, education, mental health, and domestic abuse, and still came away from the pandemic with fewer excess deaths than in almost any other European country, and less than half that of the United States.