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IRAN’S NUKESIran Could Make Fuel for Nuclear Bomb in Less Than 2 Weeks: Gen. Milley
Iran could make enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb in “less than two weeks” and could produce a nuclear weapon in “several more months,” according to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley. The 2015 nuclear deal signed by the Obama administration increased Iran’s “breakout” time – that is, the time required to produce one nuclear weapon once a decision to do has been made — to about twelve months, but the Trump administration’s 2018 decision unilaterally to withdraw from the deal has allowed Iran to reduce the breakout time to about two weeks.
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IRAN’S NUKESSurvey of Iran’s Advanced Centrifuges - March 2023
Iran continues to deploy advanced centrifuges at its three enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow in violation of the limitations outlined in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). InFebruary 2021, Iran stopped providing declarations about its production and inventory of centrifuge rotor tubes, bellows, and rotor assemblies, and blocked the IAEA access to IAEA cameras recording activities in the enrichment facilities. In June 2022, Iran removed the IAEA cameras from the enrichment facilities, so no recordings exist. Consequently, the IAEA has had no ability to take inventory.
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IRAQ INVASIONThe Iraq Invasion, Twenty Years Later
Last week marked the 20th anniversary of the United States-led invasion of Iraq. Code-named “Operation Iraqi Freedom” by the George W. Bush administration, the goal was to eliminate weapons of mass destruction, topple Saddam Hussein, and remake Iraq into a democracy. What lessons should we learn from the war and its aftermath?
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CYBERSECURITYWhat Is the National Cybersecurity Strategy? What the Biden Administration Has Changed
On 2 March 2023 the Biden administration released its first National Cybersecurity Strategy. Some of the key provisions in the Strategy relate to the private sector, both in terms of product liability and cybersecurity insurance. It also aims to reduce the cybersecurity burden on individuals and smaller organizations. It provides some innovative ideas that could strengthen U.S. cybersecurity in meaningful ways and help modernize America’s technology industry, both now and into the future.
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CHINA WATCHShould the U.S. Ban TikTok? Can It? A Cybersecurity Expert Explains the Risks the App Poses and the Challenges to Blocking It
A full ban of TikTok raises a number of questions: What data privacy risk does TikTok pose? What could the Chinese government do with data collected by the app? Is its content recommendation algorithm dangerous? And is it even possible to ban an app?
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EXTREMISMAntisemitic Incidents in the U.S. in 2022
Antisemitic incidents in the U.S. in 2022 reached an all-time high last year with a total of 3,697 incidents of assault, harassment and vandalism tracked by ADL’s Audit of Antisemitic Incidents. This represents the largest number of incidents against Jews in the U.S., recorded by ADL since 1979.
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EXTREMISMHard-Right Social Media Activities Lead to Civil Unrest: Study
Does activity on hard-right social media lead to civil unrest? With the emergence and persistent popularity of hard-right social media platforms such as Gab, Parler, and Truth Social, it is important to understand the impact they are having on society and politics.
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ARGUMENT: GUARDING DEMOCRACYHow Jan. 6 Committee Staffers Have Filled in the Blanks
According to Tucker Carlson, the riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, was not an attempted putsch but instead “mostly peaceful chaos.” Quinta Jurecic writes that the Fox News host’s revisionist take on Jan. 6 has so far received widespread condemnation, and that among the voices criticizing Carlson’s attempted rewriting of history have been staffers formerly on the Jan. 6 committee.
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AGRICULTURE SECURITYIt’s Time to Talk about Food and Agriculture Security
When large scale threats affect food and agriculture supplies, they become matters of national security. Many different threats to our food and agriculture sector exist, and any disruption to the supply chain can cause shortages at your local grocery store and limit the availability of food.
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COVID ORIGINSReport Describes SARS-CoV-2 Market Sequences, Biden Signs COVID Intel Declassification Bill
In two major developments regarding investigations into the source of SARS-CoV-2, an international research group that examined genetic sequences from the animal market detailed their findings in a new report, and President Joe Biden signed a bill to declassify US intelligence on virus origins.
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ELECTION SECURITYMoving to Evidence-Based Elections
In most jurisdictions things went relatively smoothly in the November 2022 midterms, but serious issues, both technical and political, remain. Elections may be made more transparent and secure through the use of voter-marked paper ballots and rigorous postelection audits.
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DISINFORMATIONRussia and China’s Influence Campaigns During the War in Ukraine
Within weeks of the launch of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin began pushing a conspiracy about U.S.-backed bioweapon laboratories in Ukraine, claiming that the labs were handling “especially dangerous pathogens” (including the coronavirus), that they were trying to make bioagents capable of targeting certain ethnic groups, and that they were training birds to deliver bioweapons to Russian controlled territories. These false claims were amplified by right-populist U.S. commentators such as Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon.
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CLOAK & DAGGERWho Was the Cold War “Umbrella Assassin?”
A new Danish documentary sheds some light on the shadowy figure of Francesco Gullino, alias “Agent Piccadilly,” the prime suspect in the 1978 murder of Bulgarian dissident Georgi Markov in London.
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TERRORISMTerrorist Attacks More Deadly, Despite Decline in the West
The tenth annual edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) reveals that terrorist attacks are more deadly, with 26% more people dying in each incident - the first rise in lethality in five years. After substantial increase in terrorism activity between 2016 and 2019, progress has plateaued with both attacks and deaths remaining roughly the same since 2019. The number of countries recording a death ranged from 43 in 2020 to 42 in 2022.
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EXTREMISMConspiracy Theories, Holocaust Education, and Other Predictors of Antisemitic Belief
A new research explored a variety of topics to better understand which factors are linked with holding greater numbers of anti-Jewish and anti-Israel attitudes. Understanding the relative predictive power of each of these variables will have significant implications in developing strategies aimed at ameliorating antisemitism.
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More headlines
The long view
PLUM ISLANDPlum Island One Step Closer to Permanent Preservation
Plum Island is one step closer to permanent preservation. Plum Island is currently owned by the United States government and has been home to the Plum Island Animal Disease Center for nearly 70 years. The Department of Homeland Security is in the process of excessing the island, opening it up for transfer to another entity.
ARGUMENT: DEMOCRACY WATCHJohn Eastman and the Limits of Bar Discipline
The memos prepared by John Eastman constitute some of the most disturbing documentation of the plot to overturn the 2020 election in favor of Donald Trump. Eastman’s legal analysis sets out a range of supposed options by which swing-state electors from states supporting Joe Biden could be disregarded, thus handing Trump a second term in office. The State Bar of California announced that it will be seeking his disbarment from the practice of law over his role fomenting the Jan. 6 insurrection. Eastman “has now entered the select club of lawyers finally facing bar discipline for their involvement in efforts to overturn the 2020 election,” Quinta Jurecic writes.
DEFAULT DANGERThis Debt Ceiling Showdown Is Especially Risky
On Thursday, 19 January 2022, the federal government hit its $31.4 trillion debt limit. That means that it can’t borrow any additional money to meet its obligations, which include everything from issuing Social Security checks to paying interest on Treasury bonds. Past fights over the borrowing limit didn’t spark a financial crisis. This time could be different, according to two experts.
DEFAULT DANGERU.S. Debt Default Could Trigger Dollar’s Collapse – and Severely Erode America’s Political and Economic Might
By Michael Humphries
Brinkmanship over the debt ceiling has become a regular ritual. As an economist, I know that defaulting on the national debt would have real-life consequences. Even the threat of pushing the U.S. into default has an economic impact. In August 2021, the mere prospect of a potential default led to an unprecedented downgrade of the nation’s credit rating, hurting America’s financial prestige as well as countless individuals, including retirees. And that was caused by the mere specter of default. An actual default would be far more damaging.
ARGUMENT: CHINA’S CHIP STRUGGLESGreat Leap Nowhere: The Challenges of China’s Semiconductor Industry
China is struggling in the battle for advanced semiconductor technology. With President Joe Biden’s most recent round of export controls on semiconductors, China is now facing an increasingly urgent challenge as it seeks to ramp up its domestic innovative capacity for high-end chips. These difficulties and challenges notwithstanding, Elliot Ji writes, “U.S. policymakers should be keenly aware that China’s relative success with creative adaptation means that it can boost certain sectors of the chip industry by exploiting leaky export controls and engaging in cyber espionage.”
ARGUMENT: GUARDING DEMOCRACYHow Jan. 6 Committee Staffers Have Filled in the Blanks
According to Tucker Carlson, the riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, was not an attempted putsch but instead “mostly peaceful chaos.” Quinta Jurecic writes that the Fox News host’s revisionist take on Jan. 6 has so far received widespread condemnation, and that among the voices criticizing Carlson’s attempted rewriting of history have been staffers formerly on the Jan. 6 committee.