Attacks on surface transportation: what the data say
Two detailed reports on risks to surface transportation offer intriguing insights which may lead to changes in approaches to ground transportation security; for example, suicide bombers, particularly when attacking trains, are not the most lethal way of delivering a bomb, and assaults with automatic weapons and land mines have been used with greater lethality for many targets than IEDs placed inside a target
The San Jose, California-based Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) has released two research reports detailing data on terrorist attacks and serious crimes committed against surface transportation targets throughout the world. The first report, Explosives and Incendiaries Used in Terrorist Attacks on Public Surface Transportation: A Preliminary Empirical Analysis, covers attacks on trains, buses, and highway targets. The second, Terrorist Attacks on Public Bus Transportation: A Preliminary Empirical Analysis, covers attacks on buses, bus stations, and bus stops. Both were written by Brian Michael Jenkins and Bruce Butterworth, experts in transportation security.
For the report on explosives and incendiaries, data include the frequency and lethality with which trains, buses, and highway targets are attacked when explosives and incendiaries are used; and the relationship between fatalities and injuries and attacks against those targets. In addition to providing similar information, the public bus report also includes data about how often buses are attacked relative to other surface transportation targets, first with all weapons and then with only explosive and incendiary devices; the relative lethality of bus attacks; and the distribution of those attacks.
The data are drawn from MTI’s proprietary database of attacks on public surface transportation, which is continuously updated as new attacks occur and more information on previously recorded attacks becomes available.
This database is developed from existing lists and media accounts, augmented by local sources, providing detailed information on targets, attack methods, and the ways in which bombs and incendiaries are placed to kill passengers on public trains and buses and to destroy transportation infrastructure. It helps government policy makers and transportation managers understand not only what and how terrorists most often attack, but more important, which of their attacks are most deadly, and where their “return on investment” is greatest. Therefore, the data can help government authorities and transit operators design the most effective security countermeasures.
For example, the database indicates how many devices are delivered by suicide bombers, where other bombs are placed, how many times more than one bomb is used, and when any bombs were timed to kill first responders. The latest version of the database now under construction will also show how often police, security guards, drivers and employees, and passengers detect bombs beforehand and prevent attacks; and how often bombs are placed in trash bins, in leave-behind bags, or in lockers and toilets of stations. These are important data for those developing security regulations, procedures, guidance and training.
Because of its level of detail, the database has already yielded some surprising results. For example, suicide bombers, particularly when attacking trains, are not the most lethal way of delivering a bomb, and assaults with automatic weapons and land mines have been used with greater lethality for many targets than IEDs placed inside a target. These kinds of results are provided in the two reports.
“The data presented here are drawn from the MTI database of attacks on public surface transportation, to which additional incidents are added either as they occur or as they are culled from existing collections that do not focus specifically on transportation security,” said Jenkins. “On November 12, 2009, the database contained 1,384 attacks. Over the next three months, the database grew to 1,648 attacks, an average of 88 attacks a month. MTI is currently incorporating hundreds of attacks from the 1,700 transportation-attack entries in a chronology maintained by the RAND Corporation, which graciously provided the data to MTI. We will shortly have a set of over 2,250 attacks to work with.”
The reports are produced by the Mineta Transportation Institute’s National Transportation Security Center of Excellence (MTI/NTSCOE) for the Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) of DHS. Final reports, with updated figures and expanded information, will be peer-reviewed and published in the coming months.
