Australia 20 years after gun reform: No mass shootings, declining firearm deaths

Over the same comparison period, there was a significant acceleration in the downward trend for firearm suicides and a non-significant acceleration in the downward trend in firearm homicides.

The researchers also examined total all-cause homicide and all-method suicide data to assess the possibility that reduced access to firearms permitted the substitution of other lethal methods, such as knives or hanging, to commit suicide or homicide.

From 1979 to 1996, the average annual rate of total non-firearm suicide and homicide deaths was rising at 2.1 percent per year. Since then, the average annual rate of total non-firearm suicide and homicide deaths has been declining by 1.4 percent, supporting a conclusion that there has been no substitution of other lethal means for suicides or homicides.

“Opponents of public health measures to reduce the availability of firearms often claim that ‘killers just find another way.’ Our findings show the opposite: there is no evidence of murderers moving to other methods, and the same is true of suicide,” said co-author Philip Alpers.

Finally, researchers compared changes in firearm deaths and non-firearm deaths and suicides before and after the gun law reforms to assess whether the observed change in firearm deaths can be attributed to gun law reforms.

While there was a more rapid decline in firearm deaths from 1997 to 2013 compared to before 1997, there was also a greater acceleration in the decline in total non-firearm suicide and homicide deaths. Because of this, it is not possible to determine whether the change in firearm deaths can be attributed to gun law reforms.

Macquarie University’s Professor Mike Jones says: “To me there are two key findings from this study. One is that in the 20 years after the passage of gun control laws there has not been a mass shooting in Australia despite an average of two every three years for some time before that. The other is that the acceleration of the decline in gun-related deaths means lives saved. We can argue over how many but the data says lives have been saved.”

Professor Simon Chapman said: “Australia’s experience shows that banning rapid-fire firearms was associated with reductions in mass shootings and total firearm deaths. In today’s context, these findings offer an example which, with public support and political courage, might reduce gun deaths in other countries.”

— Read more in Simon Chapman et al., “Association between gun law reforms and intentional firearm deaths in Australia, 1979-2013,”  Journal of the American Medical Association (22 June 2016) (doi:10.1001/jama.2016.8752); and Daniel W. Webster, “Lessons from Australia’s National Firearms Agreement,” Editorial, Journal of the American Medical Association (22 June 2016) (doi:10.1001/jama.2016.8819)