Man-made epidemicsThe Risk of Lab-Created Pandemic Pathogens
In 2017, considerable new data became available which calls for a new estimation of the risk of release into the community of lab-created potential pandemic pathogens. In a new study, one expert writes that these are “the most worrisome potential pandemic pathogens because a highly transmissible strain released from a lab into the community could seed a pandemic with substantial worldwide fatalities.”
In 2017, considerable new data became available which calls for a new estimation of the risk of release into the community of lab-created potential pandemic pathogens.
Lynn C. Klotz, a Senior Science Fellow in the Biological and Chemical Security Program at the Center for Arms Control and Non-proliferation, has just published a study which focuses on lab-created avian-influenza viruses – viruses which have been modified to be transmissible in mammals through the air.
Klotz writes that these are “the most worrisome potential pandemic pathogens because a highly transmissible strain released from a lab into the community could seed a pandemic with substantial worldwide fatalities.”
There are at least fourteen facilities around the world which have created such viruses (Klotz calls these facilities “Research Enterprise”). Klotz says that it is calculated that there is about a 15.8 percent probability of a release into the community from the Research Enterprise for five years of research.
“Combining the likelihood of community release with the estimated not-insignificant probability of 5 percent to 40 percent such a virus could seed a pandemic if the released virus is highly transmissible in humans, we have an alarming situation with a real risk to human lives,” Klotz says.
Those who support such research argue either that the probability of community release is infinitesimal, or that the benefits in preventing a pandemic are great enough to justify the risk. Klotz says that in his opinion, “it would take extraordinary benefits and significant risk reduction via extraordinary biosafety measures to correct such a massive overbalance of highly uncertain benefits to potential risks.”
Klotz says:
No one can be sure how virulent or airborne transmissible in humans these potential pandemic viruses would be if released into the community. In the best-case scenario, they would soon die out with little to no sickness and no deaths; however, just the possibility of a pandemic dictates that we must proceed with the utmost caution. Put another way; the Precautionary Principle should apply.
