Perspective: Into AfricaRussian Theater: How to Respond to Moscow’s Return to the African Stage

Russia is preparing to launch its first Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi on Oct. 24. President Vladimir Putin and the summit co-host, Egyptian leader and African Union Chairman Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, invited all of the African heads of state along with the leaders of major subregional associations and organizations. Russia almost certainly will advertise the summit as an emblem of its triumphant return to center stage in Africa.

Judd Devermont writes in Lawfare that “Despite the [Russian] federation’s grandiose rhetoric about renewed influence in Africa, the United States should fight the temptation to elevate Russia’s standing in Africa. It should focus on countering Moscow’s expansion and closing down its malign activities in Africa, instead of wasting time and energy framing Russia’s return as part of ‘great power competition.’”

The Russia-Africa Summit is the latest in a series of maneuvers by the Kremlin to present an image of a resurgent Russia in Africa. Part of Russia’s engagement in Africa is military in nature. The Russian military and Russian private military contractors linked to the Kremlin have expanded their global military footprint in Africa, seeking basing rights in a half dozen countries and inking military cooperation agreements with 27 African governments, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War.

Russia also has deepened its economic ties with the continent, especially since Western sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 spurred a scramble for permissive markets and partners.

Devermont write:

Russia’s return, even while at times ham-fisted and amateurish, does pose a threat to U.S. interests. Moscow’s engagement enables autocrats, fosters corruption and sows societal discontent, especially in already-fragile African countries. Moreover, the Kremlin’s activities are designed in part to weaken U.S. leadership in the region. Leaked files from the Dossier Center indicate that Moscow’s goal is to “strong-arm” the United States and former colonial powers like the United Kingdom and France out of the region. Russia seeks to exploit the perceived U.S. retreat from Africa, presenting itself as a more reliable security partner to countries where the U.S. military is reducing its footprint. Russia has also used its own diplomatic wins with African countries to undermine successful U.S. engagement in the continent.

In responding to these Russian threats, the United States must resist dramatics. U.S. rhetoric that Russia is a “great power” and near-peer competitor to the United States and China in Africa is not only inaccurate, but it actually advances Moscow’s goals. The Kremlin benefits when U.S. officials and international media frame its presence in Africa as a restoration of its status as a global superpower. It serves Moscow’s interest to be perceived as active and influential everywhere in Africa. Moreover, the U.S. government should be wary of hawkish pressure from observers and some national security professionals to redirect resources toward African countries for the sole purpose of countering Moscow’s influence. Not only would it be an overreaction, but it also risks signaling to other African governments that flirting with Russia will garner more attention from the United States.

He concludes:

There is a smarter response to Russian expansion. It requires understated and proactive diplomatic efforts to preserve U.S. interests, including peace, prosperity and responsible governance in the region. It is imperative to shut down Russia’s current rising tide of influence in Africa, especially where the Kremlin seeks to weaken ties between the United States and its partners.

The United States… should ignore the theatrics. The U.S. playbook for responding to the Russian threat is clear: strengthen ties with African leaders and civil society, expose Russia’s subversive activities, and block new openings for Moscow to gain sway in the region.