Mass shootingsMass Shootings in the U.S. Have Risen Sharply in 2020 – Why?

By Craig Jackson

Published 1 December 2020

Despite the U.S. response to the coronavirus pandemic using sporadic stay-at-home orders and lockdowns, as of 26 November 2020 there have been 578 mass shootings so far this year. According to data provided by the Gun Violence Archive, which records mass shooting deaths, this is already significantly above the 417 mass shootings recorded in the whole of 2019.

Despite the U.S. response to the coronavirus pandemic using sporadic stay-at-home orders and lockdowns, as of 26 November 2020 there have been 578 mass shootings so far this year. According to data provided by the Gun Violence Archive, which records mass shooting deaths, this is already significantly above the 417 mass shootings recorded in the whole of 2019.

In fact, by August 2020, mass shootings in the US had already exceeded the year-end totals for each year from 2014 to 2018. Mass shootings in the US have continued the general year-on-year increase in terms of frequency, fatalities and injuries – but 2020 has been far worse than usual.

The Gun Violence Archive defines mass shootings as a minimum of four victims shot (either fatally or not) excluding any shooter killed or injured in the attack. The foundation definition of mass shooting also excludes incidents related to criminal activity, family disputes or gangs.

There are more conservative measures of mass shooting with higher fatality and injury thresholds available at both the Mother Jones and the Mass Shootings in America databases. But all show an increase – part of a broader trend which has recently increased sharply.

There are a number of reasons behind this: people’s concern that law enforcement and the criminal justice system are not coping with a growing crime-wave while COVID depletes police numbers. There are also those who believe that law enforcement is not working fairly or effectively for them. A lot of these people are prompted to buy themselves guns. Mass gatherings and protests have also involved firearms being brandished and open-carry laws being used to maximum advantage and intimidation. As a Harvard study from 2015 has shown, put simply, more guns equals more homicides.

In September the FBI identified the election period up to the 2021 inauguration as a “potential flashpoint”, issuing an intelligence report warning of an imminent “violent extremist threat” from far-right militias, including white supremacists such as the Boogaloo Boys.

Research generally shows that more guns in circulation typically results in more mass shootings occurring, but this correlation alone – while important – does not explain why such attacks happen. Other countries with similar gun-ownership rates to the US have considerably fewer mass shootings – so there is clearly something cultural at play.

More Guns
An increase in firearm sales in the US at the start of the coronavirus pandemic especially involving “first-time buyers” helped to partially explain the rise in mass shootings, reaching 1.3 million handguns and