ARGUMENT: MILITARY TECHNOLOGYAre New and Emerging Technologies Game-Changers for Smaller Powers?
We are now entering into what is usually referred to as the fourth industrial revolution, which is characterized by the fusion of technologies and platforms in the form of a “system of systems.” Michael Claesson and Zebulon Carlander write that “In previous industrial revolutions, innovation was integrated into military capabilities, such as weapons systems, logistics, and organization. The fourth industrial revolution will be no different.” The add that “New and emerging technologies might therefore offer a new arena for small and medium states in which they can exploit possibilities to offset the capabilities of bigger and better-resourced adversaries.”
In 2020, as tensions rose between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, small clashes soon turned into combat. Michael Claesson and Zebulon Carlander write in War on the Rocks that instead of a traditional battlefield ruled by main battle tanks and artillery, armed drones turned out to be game-changers. Using Turkish-made drones, Azerbaijani forces destroyed numerous enemy tanks and armored vehicles, leaving the tactically dislocated Armenian side unable to respond. Military analysts around the world took notice: New technology and capabilities could impact outcomes on the modern battlefield.
Claesson and Carlander write:
When the integration of new technology is discussed, however, the perspective of smaller states is often absent. For us, this is personal: One of us is the head of Swedish joint operations and the other is an infantry squad leader in the Swedish Army Reserves. These experiences and hard questions drove us to write a book together: Strategic Choices: The Future of Swedish Security. In this book, we explore how smaller states, out of scarcity of resources, often have to find creative and innovative ways to adopt technology to overcome, or at least offset, the advantages a well-resourced opponent might have. While the armed forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan were about evenly matched in turns of numbers, the way both sides used different concepts and platforms offers important lessons for smaller states facing bigger enemies. Smaller states can identify asymmetric advantages that could create military problems for larger adversaries through well-thought-out concepts that combine capability development, doctrines, education, exercises, and — of course — operations. In general, smaller states don’t have access to the full spectrum of the latest technologies. In order to maximize operational effect against a bigger adversary, the use of military capabilities based on new technologies should be accompanied by smart tactics and methods.
They note that we are now entering into what is usually referred to as the fourth industrial revolution, which is characterized by the fusion of technologies and platforms in the form of a “system of systems.” New technology characterizes this development, allowing faster data transfer through improved mobile networks (5G), interconnected components (the “internet of things”), autonomous systems, additive manufacturing (3D printing), biotechnology, and AI supported by machine learning with the ability to process large amounts of data. These evolutions and revolutions could lead to the dramatic and rapid transformation of all human activities, including military operations.
In previous industrial revolutions, innovation was integrated into military capabilities, such as weapons systems, logistics, and organization. The fourth industrial revolution will be no different. In addition, the civilian sector, both in business and in academia, primarily drives technological development today. The traditional defense industrial sectors of many countries now find it difficult to match the pace of innovation in development-focused and investment-oriented businesses. Therefore, anyone who is able to develop interfaces between civilian-driven innovation and military capability development will likely enjoy a number of operational advantages in the not-too-distant future.
The authors conclude:
These new technologies create possibilities to deal with both existing and future threats, perhaps also to a greater extent through asymmetry and non-linear solutions. The ability to find pragmatic trade-offs and compromises will continue to be a necessity for the successful development of smaller-state defense policy concepts. New and emerging technologies might therefore offer a new arena for small and medium states in which they can exploit possibilities to offset the capabilities of bigger and better-resourced adversaries — but only if they are brave enough to take the chance.
