Terrorist Drone Attacks | Extremists Plotted Power Grid Attacks | Moscow’s Musings on Brinksmanship, and more

Terrorist Drone Attacks: Could New Technology Stop the Threat?  (Robert Tollast, The National)
Easily available, difficult to detect and hard to intercept, small drones pose a challenge to even the world’s most advanced militaries. When Iraqi tanks had ISIS cornered during the battle of Mosul in 2017, the extremists disabled a US-made M1A1 – a 60-tonne behemoth and one of the world’s most formidable armored vehicles – by using a makeshift drone to drop a small grenade next to the commander’s hatch. A drone costing less than $1,000 was able to defeat a tank worth $4 million in an incident that underscored how effective even civilian drones could be in the hands of terrorists who can easily turn them into weapons. Revolutionary Guard Corps to Hezbollah and Iraq’s militias, have come to regard drones – whether purpose-built or weaponized – as a vital tool in their attacks aimed at destabilizing more powerful foes. But a host of new ideas and technology promises to turn the tide against the use of low-cost drones in conflicts and give state militaries new ways to provide security against unconventional attacks. From high-tech laser beams and microwave radiation attacks, to bespoke radar systems and electronic signal jamming, modern militaries will be able to call on a whole arsenal of ways to counter the drone threat. Older systems are also being re-purposed, from fighter jets with powerful “look down, shoot down” radar and helicopters are being given new weapons to hunt unmanned aircraft.

Drones Could Help Tackle Maritime Terrorists as UN Warns of ‘Major’ Threat in Africa  (Nicky Harley, The National)
Drones could help countries respond to maritime terrorists as the UN warns of a growing number of extremist groups gaining access to nations via sea routes in Africa. Rocco Messina, head of border security management at the UN Counter-terrorism Centre, has said that terrorist groups are now carrying out attacks in African ports and that security is “critical”. “There is capacity of such groups to take control of key maritime infrastructures, such as ports,” Mr Messina said. Mr Messina made his comments during a webinar hosted by the UN on Tuesday to discuss technology and maritime border security. He said it is “vital to find a solution” to the problem to prevent the travel and relocation of foreign terrorist fighters as they pose a “major” risk. “Maritime borders must be protected by ensuring the security of ports,” he said. “Surveillance technologies and high standards of security protocol are really critical. Relevant information about terrorist threats in maritime zones should be shared in real time.” Robert Kibor, legal and policy adviser for Kenya’s National Counter-terrorism Centre, said the threat from extremists is now more severe than that of pirates.

Germany Home to 1,950 Potentially Violent Islamist Extremists  (Tim Stickings, The National)
The German government has revealed there are about 1,950 potentially violent Islamist extremists in the country. These people were assessed by the Interior Ministry as both extreme in their beliefs and either known to be violent or showing a willingness to commit violent acts. They were the most dangerous of the roughly 29,000 people believed to have Islamist extremist tendencies in Germany, who in turn are a minority of the approximately 5.5 million Muslims in the country. Ministers have described right-wing extremism as the main threat to Germany’s constitutional order, but sporadic Islamist extremist attacks, including an attack at a Berlin Christmas market in 2016, have rattled the country. In a written answer to a question from MPs, the ministry said those identified did not necessarily belong to Islamist extremist organizations but were tallied up when evidence of their violent tendencies emerged. German intelligence services say the Salafist scene is the main ideological underpinning for violent extremism, although it has stagnated in size in recent years. The foreign intelligence service separately raised the alarm this month about extremists in Germany travelling to Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover.

MI5 Chief Ken McCallum: British Extremists Are Travelling to Afghanistan  (Nicky Harley, The National)
The head of Britain’s domestic intelligence service said that Afghanistan is becoming a hotbed for terrorism. A British man was one of two suspected ISIS recruits caught while trying to enter Afghanistan this month. Ken McCallum, the director general of MI5, said the service has evidence of terrorist groups regrouping in Afghanistan and recruits are travelling to join them. In September Mr McCallum said that the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan would give a “morale boost” to extremists in the UK and that terrorist groups would begin “reconstituting themselves within Afghanistan and projecting the threat back at the West including the UK”. “We have seen versions of both of those risks beginning to materialze,” he told the Daily Mail in an interview. “Clearly we have seen some people interested in travelling to Afghanistan in pursuit of some of those goals. “We have seen the beginnings of some travel attempts, and so with our partners we remain very vigilant.” After the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in August there were fears that the country would again become a safe haven for terrorist groups despite Taliban leaders vowing not to shelter such people. ISIS’s affiliate in Afghanistan, known as ISIS-K, is the most extreme and violent militant group in the landlocked country.

Cybersecurity Tools Lie Unused in Federal Agencies’ Toolboxes  (Jim Dempsey, Lawfare)
Concerns over the possible Russian use of cyber weapons against U.S. domestic critical infrastructure in connection with the Ukraine crisis—warnings renewed on Feb. 11—should prompt reconsideration of the still-deferential posture of U.S. cybersecurity policy toward much of the private sector. Once again, though, complaints against “government mandates” may block action.
For more than 30 years, the federal government’s approach to cybersecurity has been based on the concept of public-private partnership. For many sectors, that has meant no regulation, even as the threat has grown and industry’s response has lagged. It took last May’s high-profile attack on Colonial Pipeline to prompt the Transportation Security Agency (TSA) to issue its first binding directives for that one highly critical infrastructure. TSA used existing powers, not specific to cyberthreats. With congressional action to grant new regulatory authorities highly improbable, it is remarkable how many other agencies also have existing authority that could be leveraged to improve the cybersecurity of private actors under their jurisdiction.

Moscow’s Musings on Brinksmanship from Stalin to Putin  (Sergey Radchenko, War on the Rocks)
There is little left of that brave new world now. The golden arches of Moscow’s first McDonald’s, opened in the Pushkin Square in 1990, remind passers-by of how the Cold War ended. Kennan predicted this. He knew that the vigor of the West would trump the drab reality of the Soviet project. But there was something that he failed to predict: Even after it shed socialism, Moscow would remain preoccupied with its position in the global pecking order and never tire of seeking to improve it by cynical resort to the language of force.
Brinksmanship is an art. Soviet and Russian leaders had all practiced it, with varying degrees of success. In this sense, at least, Putin is well-versed in a tradition established by his predecessors. Like his Soviet predecessors, Putin is willing to use overwhelming brute force in pursuit of clearly imperialistic goals. But he is an incremental imperialist, taking a bite at a time, feeling for weakness in the West’s resolve, ready to back off if he encounters too much resistance. Kennan would have recognized the type.

Flat-Earthers Keep Alienating Other Conspiracy Theorists—Even QAnon Believers  (Daily Beast)
“If that’s not a sign of the guardrails coming off, I don’t know what is.”

Far-Right Extremists Plotted Power Grid Attacks to Start a Race War, Feds Say  (Dia Gill, Daily Beast)
Three men hailing from Ohio, Texas, and Indiana planned to bring down power grids across the country in hopes of causing prolonged civil unrest, prosecutors said.