Five Comments on the Evolving Situation in Ukraine
2) Open Borders
It is puzzling why Russia has not rushed troops to seal the borders with Romania and Poland – through which most of the supplies from NATO countries to the Ukrainian resistance pass.
It is all well and fine for NATO countries to want to send more weapons to the Ukrainian resistance — but if these arms cannot get into Ukraine, or are intercepted, than the resistance will soon be starved.
To allow its forces more freedom of action in Ukraine, and to minimize its losses, Russia should have parachuted troops at the border areas, or used helicopters to ferry soldiers to the border areas, in order to create blocking formations at every entry point along these two borders. The Russian should also patrol the areas along the border between entry points, where arms and supplies could be smuggled into Ukraine.
So far, the Russians have not done so, and they have been paying the price for this oversight.
3) Supply Lines
Much of the Ukrainian success so far has been in attacks on long, exposed supply convoys, consisting of hundreds of slow-moving trucks, carrying ammo, fuel, and food for the Russian troops. The Russian dispersal of forces has only exacerbated this problem for Russia.
But once Russia concentrates its forces in fewer locations, there will be fewer supply convoys and they will be more easily protected. Moreover, roads leading to the major cities are typically in better condition, allowing for faster travel relative to the treacherous, meandering roads in rural Ukraine.
The resistance has benefitted from having the supply convoys as easy targets, but the resistance leaders should begin to think of finding additional targets to hit.
4) Urban Warfare
When your forces are smaller and not as well equipped as the forces of the other side, you want to fight in urban areas. In the military they say that urban areas are the “great equalizer”: You can have the best tanks in the world, the best planes, the best short-range missiles, and plenty of sophisticated long-range shoulder-fired missiles – but they are not of much use in dense urban settings.
But there is a problem: Urban warfare is a great equalizer only if the other side, the superior side, observes the laws of war and is careful not to kill civilians and destroy civilian property.
The Russians are not known for observing the rules of war, and their campaigns in Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Georgia demonstrated that.
If the Russians get frustrated with the Ukrainian resistance in dense urban areas, they may just decide to flatten the entire neighborhood – or city. Just ask the resident of Gorzny, Chechnya’s capital city (those who survived, that is).
Russian trucks heading toward Kiev and Kharkiv were carrying thermobaric weapons — especially gruesome munitions, aka vacuum bombs or aerosol bombs — which Russia used in Chechnya and Syria.
We should not envy those in Ukraine who have to make the decision about challenging the Russian forces as they try to take over Ukraine’s big cities.
5) Advise to Zelensky
Zelensky’s tweets are a source of inspiration and encouragement to his people. He should be careful, very careful, though. If he continues with his tweeting, Russian technology will allow them to locate him, and send special forces to capture or kill him. He, too, faces a difficult decision.
Ben Frankel is the editor of the Homeland Security News Wire.
