PUTIN’S INNER CIRCLEPutin’s Inner Circle Stands Firm, So Far
“Usually authoritarian regimes don’t end through mass protest but through fragmentation of the elite and, until now, we’ve seen none of that. The political elites seem to be holding together, but the fact that these two oligarchs[Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska] have come out against the party line is quite important,” says Harvard’s Alexandra Vacroux.
The war in Ukraine is shifting rapidly, with Ukrainian fighters slowing the Russian advance into major cities, international condemnation and sanctions mounting, and more than 300,000 Ukrainians leaving the country. Alexandra Vacroux, the executive director of Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, has been following the crisis moment to moment. She spoke to the Harvard Gazette’s Alvin Powell on Sunday.
Alvin Powell: Ukraine has agreed to talks with Russia. What does that tell us about the Zelensky government’s assessment of the situation?
Alexandra Vacroux: Ukraine has said from the beginning that they’re willing to talk, but that they didn’t want to do it in Minsk — which is where Russia had proposed — given that Russia is sending troops through Belarus. My understanding is that now they’re going to meet on the border between Belarus and Ukraine. It’s a good sign. That is the way this conflict is going to end, sooner or later. This situation can be negotiated, but it can’t be negotiated in a way where Ukraine gives up sovereignty, which I think is ultimately what the Russians want. It’s always good to be talking, but I would be surprised if this could get resolved in a couple of days over the negotiating table, especially while the Russians are still attacking.
Powell: Do you think Russia would settle for anything short of regime change?
Vacroux: I don’t think so. I think their objective is control over Ukraine. They tried to do it indirectly through pro-Russian politicians, and that didn’t work. Now they’re taking direct action to be sure that the person running Ukraine is going to be friendly. I don’t think that they’ve fully taken onboard the unlikelihood that the Ukrainians are going to accept a Russian puppet. That’s really hard to do if you’ve been a democracy.
