UKRAINE WARWhat Are Russia’s Strategic Aims and How Effectively Are They Achieving Them?
In his “declaration of war” speech to the nation on February 24, Putin made clear that his overarching strategic goal is to blur, if not eradicate, the distinction between Russia and Ukraine. He aims to achieve that goal by decapitating the Ukrainian political leadership, defeating of the Ukrainian armed forces, and destroying Ukraine as a functioning independent state. How will the Russian high command achieve these goals?
If generals are to succeed in the eyes of their political masters, they need to be given clear guidance as to what success will look like. “Tell me how this ends” General David Petraeus, who commanded the US 101st Airborne Division, had wanted to know before the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Unfortunately for Ukraine, President Putin has outlined clear strategic and political objectives for his senior leadership in Ukraine in a way that the then US president, George W. Bush, never did in Iraq.
In his “declaration of war” speech to the nation on February 24, Putin set out the objectives of his “special operation”: his goals were to “strive for the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine”. The Russian president spoke of creating “the necessary conditions … despite the presence of state borders, to strengthen us … as a whole”. In other words, Putin is deliberately blurring the distinction between Russia and Ukraine.
We have seen absolutely nothing in their campaign so far to indicate that the strategic objectives have changed – decapitation of the Ukrainian political leadership, defeat of the Ukrainian armed forces and the destruction of Ukraine as a functioning independent state. In the words of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, “they want to break our nationhood”.
So how then will the Russian high command achieve these goals? In the early 19th century, strategist Karl von Clausewitz advised that only “by constantly seeking out the center of his power, by daring all to win all, will one really defeat the enemy”. Zelensky has defined himself – and by extension his government – as that “center with every stirring, epoch-making speech he makes.
The immense power of Russian electronic intelligence will therefore be directed at locating him. Undercover commando units have been directed to find and assassinate him. Spies have been working over the past months to acquire contacts within the president’s circle and bribe, threaten or otherwise force betrayal.
This effort has palpably (so far) not succeeded – unlike US efforts to penetrate the group of advisers closest to Putin. If special forces, spies and electronic wizardry fail, Russian air power and artillery will try to succeed by obliterating every possible hiding place.
