UKRAINE WAR: ESCALATION RISKSWhat’s the Threat of Nuclear War Right Now?
As Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops to invade Ukraine on 24 February, he threatened any intervening country with “consequences you have never faced in history.” And during an interview Tuesday with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, Putin’s chief spokesperson refused to rule out the possibility that Russia would consider using nuclear weapons. Is Putin serious? And if Russia did deploy nuclear weapons, what would that mean for the rest of the world?
Brian Toon has gotten emails from all over the world in the last few weeks, many from people frantically asking what to do or where to go if nuclear war breaks out.
Toon, a professor of atmospheric and space physics and atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Colorado, Boulder, is a leading nuclear war researcher, so the sudden flood of panicked messages makes sense. As Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops to invade Ukraine on 24 February, he threatened any intervening country with “consequences you have never faced in history.”
And during an interview Tuesday with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, Putin’s chief spokesperson refused to rule out the possibility that Russia would consider using nuclear weapons.
Is Putin serious? And if Russia did deploy nuclear weapons, what would that mean for the rest of the world? Toon shared his nearly 40 years of nuclear expertise with CU Boulder Today, to shed some light on the situation.
Sarah Kuta: How real is the threat of nuclear war right now?
Brian Toon:I don’t think we should be very worried. Putin is fully aware that if he actually started a nuclear war, he would end up with Russia being a burning pile of rubble. There are only 200 cities in Russia with more than 100,000 people. The U.S. could attack every Boulder-sized and bigger city in Russia with 10 nuclear weapons. Putin is certainly aware of that, and I don’t think he would want that. What he’s trying to do is bully the West into not helping Ukraine.
Kuta: What are the other nuclear implications of Russia’s invasion and Putin’s threat?
Toon: The world is always on a hair-trigger for nuclear war. The American president and the Russian leader have military people who follow them around with nuclear launch codes, because there are all these ground-based missiles that need to be launched within tens of minutes before they are destroyed if we are attacked.
For example, there are about 50 nuclear-tipped missiles just north of us near Fort Collins always waiting to be launched at Russia. It’s dangerous, and it’s open to accidents and misunderstandings, but it’s unlikely anything is going to happen.
