ARGUMENT: PROXY WARA Proxy War in Ukraine Is the Worst Possible Outcome – Except for All the Others

Published 28 March 2022

The United States and its European allies clearly said that they will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine. Sam Winter-Levy writes that these statements obscured an important truth: The United States and its allies are already in the midst of a full-blown proxy war with Russia. “Western policymakers should not deceive themselves about just how ugly proxy wars tend to be… Ultimately, the only options worse than a proxy war are a cheap Russian victory in Ukraine — or a direct confrontation between Russia and the United States.

The United States and its European allies clearly said that they will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine. Sam Winter-Levy writes in War on the Rocksthat these statements obscured an important truth: The United States and its allies are already in the midst of a full-blown proxy war with Russia.

He notes that Western nations have flooded Ukraine with more than 17,000 anti-tank weapons and thousands of anti-aircraft missiles. While imposing punishing sanctions on Russia’s economy, they have pledged billions of dollars in military assistance to Ukraine, including Switchblade drones first fielded in Afghanistan by U.S. special operations forces.

In addition to weapons intended to kill Russian soldiers and destroy Russian tanks, planes, and trucks, the Western allies have reportedly been providing reconnaissance data to Ukrainian forces. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, meanwhile, has declared that she “absolutely supports” British citizens who want to volunteer to fight in defense of Ukraine.

Winter-Levy adds:

This is what a proxy war looks like. For now, the mood in Western capitals remains confident and emotionally charged after Russia’s disastrous start to its reckless military campaign. But Western policymakers should not delude themselves about the strategy they are pursuing. Proxy wars — even strategically successful ones — are ugly, violent affairs that incur an inherent risk of escalation. They are rarely as quick or as cheap as they initially seem, and they rarely play out without serious unintended consequences. A proxy war in Ukraine may be unavoidable. It may even be the West’s best option. But policymakers should be clear-eyed about the risks they face.

He concludes that the West is currently waging a proxy war with Russia — one that poses very real risks of escalation.

Western policymakers should not deceive themselves about just how ugly proxy wars tend to be. As it continues to back Ukrainian forces, the Biden administration should continue to carefully calibrate its support against the risk of a wider war, especially as arms supply routes become more limited. It should be prepared to rein in the activity of local allies, if necessary. And at some point, its leverage may help bring about a settlement, one that will require bitter compromises but that may be the only way to preserve an independent Ukraine, end the suffering caused by the war, and lower the risk of a wider conflict. Ultimately, the only options worse than a proxy war are a cheap Russian victory in Ukraine — or a direct confrontation between Russia and the United States.