OUR PICKS: WAR IN UKRAINE – MILITARY ASPECTSAvoiding NATO-Russia War | Why Deterrence Failed in Ukraine | Putin: Inept Strategist, and more

Kulminatsionny Moment?   (Ben Hodges and Julian Lindley-French, Alphen Group)

·  “The culminating point is reached when a force can no longer conduct operations. For a force engaged on offensive expeditionary operations that point is reached when a force simply can no longer advance. In the wake of the second Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, several constraints on the capacity to conduct a Blitzkrieg became immediately apparent.”

·  “The moment Russian forces crossed the Ukrainian border a large gap appeared between the scale and quality of the Russian forces needed to maintain offensive Russian military momentum and the force available given the capacity of Ukraine’s capacity to resist and the space in which to conduct defensive operations on their own terrain. … It also became rapidly clear that the basic operational and tactical planning of the Russian General Staff was inadequate.”

·  “The result is becoming increasingly self-evident for a poorly-planned and executed Russian military campaign in which incompetence marches side-by-side with costly but stalled momentum with Russian forces forced to adopt a campaign of attrition against Ukrainian civilians for which they are not designed.”

·  “The war in Ukraine is testament to the abject failure of the Russian General Staff to modernize the Russian Army in particular. Consequently, Putin’s entire political strategy of using coercion and implied threat of force to extract concessions from his neighbors already lies in tatters. Does that mean the end of Putin and bully Russia is over?  No, far from it.”

·  “What must the West now do? First, accelerate and expand the delivery of capabilities and weapons specifically intended to help Ukraine destroy the land and sea-based artillery, rockets and cruise-missile launchers that are land-based and sea-based platforms. This means more intelligence, more counter-fire radar, more long-range systems, more ammunition, and more anti-ship, and naval mines. Second, look to the future. Both China and Russia will already be deconstructing this war to identify and implement lessons for the future. So must we!”

Tacit Rules to Avoid a NATO-Russia War   (Steven Pifer, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)

·  “First, President Biden, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg and NATO member-state leaders have said that, while they will defend NATO territory, NATO forces will not take on Russian forces to defend Ukraine.” (Cont.)