OUR PICKSThe Problem with the Donbas | Would Russia Really Launch Nuclear Weapons? | What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?, and more

Peace Talks May Be Little More Than Russian Tactics, Analysts Say  (Steven Erlanger, New York Times)
As signs of progress emerged during the peace talks, some saw them as Russia buying time to regroup its military forces before another offensive push in Ukraine.

The Problem with the Donbas  (Lawrence Freedman, Comment is Freed)
To follow his preferred strategy Putin first had to stop the separatists losing to Ukrainian forces. He did this in August 2014 by inserting Russian regular forces into the battle. Then, having inflicted some heavy blows on Ukrainian forces, he agreed to ceasefire talks, which led to the Minsk agreements of September, which were revised slightly after more fighting the next February. In principle these agreements achieved his objectives but in practice they failed because they were never implemented. He was stuck with subsidising the two enclaves of Donetsk and Luhansk, who were left in limbo, while Ukraine continued, from Putin’s perspective, on its alarmingly pro-Western course.
Accepting that his plan from 2014 was not working, Putin either had to accept an increasingly unsatisfactory frozen conflict or take his chances and resolve the matter once and for all, turning Ukraine into a client state with a compliant government. There are many explanations for why he embarked on this war, including the role of NATO and demands for a new security order, but at its heart this was always about Ukraine, and Putin’s inability to accept it as an independent state that was escaping from its historic ties to Russia as it turned to the West.

Roman Abramovich Asked “Aare We Dying” After He Was Poisoned by First World War Agent Chloropicrin  (Patrick Sawer, The Telegraph)
Experts concluded the Chelsea FC owner’s most likely source of suspected poisoning was a chemical agent that causes powerful skin irritation.

Would Russia Really Launch Nuclear Weapons? (Economist)
It is extremely unlikely, but the country’s military doctrine says it could.

“Don’t Underestimate Putin and His Army - They’re Still an Incredible Adversary”  (Tony Diver, The Telegraph)
Royal Marines commander says Russia’s failure so far to conquer Ukraine should not dupe the West into thinking their threat is abating.