Can Nuclear Generation Help Reduce European Reliance on Russian Gas?

SP: Are there actions that policy makers could take to increase nuclear power and reduce Europe’s dependence on gas?
u: There are two actions that policy makers could take for nuclear to help reduce gas consumption:

·  Postpone the decommissioning of the 6 GW of nuclear capacity in Germany and Belgium due to be retired by early 2023. This may be challenging, as these plants will need fuel and a qualified workforce to operate the plants, but given that they are still operating, it could be possible to reverse the process if the decision is made soon enough. This action would not significantly change the situation in 2022 but will have an impact on next winter and add close to 50 TWh in 2023, mostly from Germany and Belgium.

·  Restart the 4 GW recently decommissioned in Germany. This can be technically challenging and costly, and could face local opposition. To the extent regulatory and political barriers are removed, action needs to be taken quickly. As time passes, it becomes harder to restart plants, as they will need a workforce and fuel, which has to be ordered well in advance specifically for each reactor. However, such a process could add another 30 TWh by 2023. How much can be added in 2022 depends on the speed of the process.

French nuclear generation could prove the most important factor for adding to EU nuclear power in the near and long term. If EDF were able to increase its power generation back to 2021 levels quickly, that could add 10 TWh in 2022 (the upper range of EDF’s forecasts) and 50 TWh in 2023. Given that France has typically low load factors, there is an upside to going back to above 400 TWh—the levels reached in the mid-2010s—but this may be limited by the number of 10-year inspections happening over the coming years.

If these three options are achieved, Europe’s nuclear generation would reach almost 660 TWh in 2022 and 760 TWh in 2023, compared to 735 TWh in 2021. Looking at 2030, an additional 14 GW out of the 100 GW operating in 2021 are expected to be retired. A reassessment of nuclear power plants could be done to determine which plants could safely be operated longer. Additionally, European countries willing to build nuclear capacity could accelerate their plans, as these plants typically take a decade to build. If approved by the European Council and the Parliament, the new EU taxonomy, which includes nuclear as a sustainable energy activity, could help to support financing.

This post,  originally published by Columbia Climate School’s Center on Global Energy Policy, is published courtesy of Earth Institute, Columbia University.