Unprecedented Change in Europe’s Fire Regime Driven by Climate Change

The study provides continental maps of fire danger and predicts the evolution of the fire risk in Europe until 2100, through different trajectories of climate change (2ºC, 4ºC) and reduction of CO₂ emissions.

“The conclusions suggest the fire regime could rapidly change in regions affected by climate change, such as the Mediterranean, Euro-Siberian and boreal areas of Europe”, notes the researcher.

“The most significant increase in fire risk will affect the areas in southern Europe that have forests and carbon sinks which are key for the regulation of climate”, says the expert, and adds that “the forests in the European continent absorb about 10% of the total emissions from greenhouse gas emissions annually. Specifically, they capture around 360 million tons of CO₂ per year, more than the emissions of a country like Spain, with a value around 214 million tons”.

The increase in fire risks described in the study is a challenge to the development and application of the new European Forestry Strategy, which proposes to maintain an annual reduction of at least 310 million tons of CO₂ from the forestry and agricultural sectors by 2030 in Europe. As a consequence, the detected increase in fire risk could jeopardize decarbonization strategies based on forest and land uses if effective forest management strategies are not adopted to reduce these risks”, highlights Carnicer.

“Moreover, the increase in this risk could promote a mechanism of positive feedback on climate change, in progressive cycles of warming, increased fire danger, and higher fire-induced CO₂ emissions. In this context, reducing the CO₂ emissions drastically in the next two decades (2030-2040) is key to reach a lower risk of fires in Europe and worldwide”, notes the author of the study.

Carnicer is a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and of the National Committee for Climate in Spain (CNC). He is one of the authors of the Sixth Assessment Report by the Working Group II at IPCC, presented in February 2022, which revealed the impacts of climate change in the ecosystems and societies worldwide, the expected environmental and social risks for the upcoming decades, and the available adaption options to reduce the impact of climate change.

Among the authors of the study are distinguished climatologists, experts on forest fire risks and forestry ecology, members of an international consortium of research institutions in which the UB, CREAF the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development of the National Observatory of Athens, the European Space Agency (ESRIN), the University of Salento (Italy), and the University of Patras (Greece) –take part.