WORLD ROUNDUPPutin’s Next Move | North Korea’s Nuclear Fail-Safe | Leveraging Immigration, and more

Published 19 September 2022

·· Putin’s Next Move in Ukraine
Mobilize, retreat, or something in between?

·· Food Supply Disruption Is Another Front for Russian Falsehoods
Russia blames West for global food supply disruptions

·· Ukraine Holds the Future
The war between democracy and nihilism

·· An Immigration Strategy for Great Power Competition
Leveraging immigration in dealing with other powers

·· North Korea’s Nuclear Fail-Safe
North Korea puts its nuclear retaliation on autopilot

·· The Left’s Negative Campaigning Helped the Right Win in Sweden
The Swedish Left’s campaign tactics blew in its face

·· Chinese and Russian Militaries Share a Potential Weakness, New Report Finds
Chinese, Russian military officers stay in their silos

·· Were Drone Strikes Effective?
Opinion divided over targeted-killing’s utility

·· Is Tunisia Abandoning Morocco for Algeria?
North Africa power balance shifting 

·· Medics “Flying Blind” in Fight Against Superbugs Due to Patchy Diagnostics
Africa’s ineffective fight against superbugs

Putin’s Next Move in Ukraine  (Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage, Foreign Affairs)
For the first time in the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin must contend with the serious prospect of losing it. Early setbacks around Kyiv and Chernigov had been balanced by Russian gains in the south and the east; they could be justified as tactical retreats and thus as Russian choices, regardless of whether they truly were. By contrast, the near rout of Russian soldiers in the Kharkiv region on September 10—and the rapid reconquest by Ukrainian forces of territory spanning some 2,000 square miles in the east and south—clearly showed that Ukraine was on top and that Russian troops may continue to fall to future such offensives. Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive destroyed the illusion of Russian invincibility. It has also heralded a new stage in the West’s expectations. Suddenly, Western leaders and strategists have been able to contemplate Ukraine gaining the upper hand in this war. This shift in perspective seems certain to unleash a new dynamic of military support for Ukraine. The argument that Ukraine should sue for peace, rather than keep fighting, has been refuted.

Food Supply Disruption Is Another Front for Russian Falsehoods  (Jeremy W. Peters, New York Times)
As the war in Ukraine has put pressure on the global markets for food, Russia has spread conspiracy theories that blame the West.

Ukraine Holds the Future: The War Between Democracy and Nihilism  (Timothy Snyder, Foreign Affairs)
Russia, an aging tyranny, seeks to destroy Ukraine, a defiant democracy. A Ukrainian victory would confirm the principle of self-rule, allow the integration of Europe to proceed, and empower people of goodwill to return reinvigorated to other global challenges. A Russian victory, by contrast, would extend genocidal policies in Ukraine, subordinate Europeans, and render any vision of a geopolitical European Union obsolete. Should Russia continue its illegal blockade of the Black Sea, it could starve Africans and Asians, who depend on Ukrainian grain, precipitating a durable international crisis that will make it all but impossible to deal with common threats such as climate change. (Cont.)