Question of Succession in Al-Qaeda | Anti-war Camp Is Intellectually Bankrupt | Nord Stream Is Putin’s Warning Shot to the West, and more

Jihadists in Mozambique Far from a Spent Force, Says New Intelligence Report  (Epoch Times)
New intelligence into a jihadist insurgency in Mozambique shows that radical, anti-West religious leaders from across East Africa continue to win recruits for extremists supported by the ISIS international terror network, negating gains made by a regional peacekeeping force. It says hardened terrorists from across Africa still enjoy almost unfettered access to the resource-rich Southern African country, because of porous borders and a coastline that’s largely unpoliced. This, even as thousands of troops from the region, plus Rwanda, claim notable victories over the insurgents, killing and capturing many, but driving them into previously peaceful areas where they’ve set up new bases. Soldiers from some of the Southern African Development Community, SADC, bloc and Rwanda, have been in northern Mozambique since July last year, to oppose the militants who call themselves Ahlu-Sunnah wal Jama’ah (ASWJ), or “true followers of the Prophet Muhammad” and “the people who will be saved on the Day of Judgement.” The insurgency flared up in October 2017, when ASWJ fighters attacked villages and towns in Cabo Delgado province; men were beheaded, women were raped.

Italy’s Right Is Torn on Ukraine but United on China  (Ludovica Meacci, Foreign Policy)
The Italian general elections last Sunday saw far-right leader Giorgia Meloni guiding a right-wing coalition to a slim majority in both the lower and upper chambers of the Italian Parliament. Understandably, the election discussions have largely turned on Meloni’s hard-right stances and her party’s neofascist history. But foreign policy played some part in the election, largely revolving around Italy’s international alliances and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In the run-up to the elections, some cracks emerged. Berlusconi faced a strong backlash when he was caught parroting Russian propaganda on national television, stating that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objective was merely to “replace [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky with a government made up of decent people.” Similarly, Salvini has repeatedly insisted on the need to reevaluate sanctions against Moscow, as these “are not damaging the sanctioned party but rather those who are imposing the sanctions.”
These episodes have led to questions about the supposed unity of the right-wing coalition on foreign-policy issues, especially in light of their decades-old relationships with Putin. Berlusconi’s personal friendship with Putin dates back to their first encounter in 2001, and Forza Italia’s leader has often minced his words on Russia’s aggressive posture, calling the 2014 Crimean referendum “democratic” and asking the European Union to “make Kyiv accept Russia’s conditions.” In 2015, in a now-deleted Facebook post, Salvini criticized Italian President Sergio Mattarella for not endorsing his anti-immigration stances at the European Parliament and expressed his wishes to “exchange two Mattarella for half a Putin” while wearing a T-shirt with Putin’s face; Salvini’s former spokesperson is now being investigated for allegedly attempting to covertly channel Russian oil money into the League party.
In an effort to emerge within the trio, Meloni has managed to distance herself the most from her previous Kremlin-friendly stances. From hailing Putin’s 2018 reelection as an “unequivocal” sign of the “will of the people” and continually demanding Crimean sanctions be revoked, Meloni has morphed into a safeguard for Italy’s Atlanticist stances in the past few months.
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While Russia has created turbulence within the right-wing coalition, Italian foreign-policy debates on China command a more united front…. When China first entered the Italian public debate with the BRI memorandum in 2019, Rome’s view of Beijing was naive and shortsighted. In a little more than three years, Italy has slowly but steadily moved away from its China-friendly stances to a more systematic, albeit arguably still patchy, approach that seeks to contain Beijing’s aggressive turn. With the new right-wing government in place, Rome is set to push for increased cooperation with like-minded partners such as Taiwan and to adopt harsher stances on China—at least, in words.

How the Anti-war Camp Went Intellectually Bankrupt  (James Kirchick, The Atlantic)Critics of U.S. foreign policy from both ends of the ideological spectrum have found common cause in supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Nord Stream Blasts Are Putin’s Warning Shot to the West  (Mark Galeotti, The Spectator)
While the Ukrainians are fighting a conventional war on their own territory, Russia and the West are engaged in an unconventional one fought by economic pressure, political subterfuge and dirty tricks. The apparent sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines seems just the latest example.