WORLD ROUNDUPGermany Is Failing to Lead | Brazil: Waiting for the Generals | India's Divisive Politics & U.K. Diaspora Community, and more

Here’s What Putin’s Nuclear Disaster Would Really Look Like  (A. Craig Copetas, Daily Beast)
In broad brushstrokes, experts calculate Putin has three trajectories for his some 6,000 nuclear devices. A high-altitude electromagnetic pulse blast over Ukraine that deep-fries electronic systems there and in Europe; a low-altitude detonation designed to kill tens of thousands of Ukrainians but not immediately affect those in neighboring countries; or the so-called ground burst, with the prevailing winds carrying the fallout helter-skelter around the globe.

Norway Deploys Soldiers at Oil, Gas Plants in Wake of Nord Stream Leaks  (RFERL)
NATO member Norway has posted soldiers to help guard major onshore oil and gas processing plants, its military said, as part of efforts to beef up security amid suspicion that sabotage caused leaks in the Nord Stream gas pipelines last week.

India’s Divisive Politics Spill Over to U.K. Diaspora Community  (Murali Krishnan, DW)
Recent violence between Hindus and Muslims shocked the UK city of Leicester, which is home to a large South Asian community. Observers say the violence was spread by inflammatory coverage on Indian social media.

Poland Demands €1.3 Trillion in WWII Reparations from Germany  (DW)
Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau has signed a note to Berlin demanding WWII reparations, an issue which Germany says was settled in 1990. Warsaw has estimated possible reparations at €1.3 trillion.

Putin’s World Is Now Smaller Than Ever  (By Angela Stent, Foreign Policy)
The moral and strategic disaster of the Russian leader’s war in Ukraine has ended his imperial dreams.

Security Forces Audio Recordings Allowed as Evidence in Terror Trial (Rebecca Black, Independent)
Recordings from covert listening devices have been allowed as evidence in a long-running terror trial in Belfast. However a portion of voice recognition evidence which attributes the recordings to three suspects has been excluded in the trial, which has been running for almost a decade. Colin Duffy, of Forest Glade in Belfast, Henry Fitzsimmons of Dunmore Mews, Belfast, and Alex McCrory of Sliabh Dubh View in Belfast, are charged with directing terrorism and membership of an illegal organization, namely the IRA. Fitzsimmons and McCrory are also charged with attempting to murder police officers in a gun attack on the Crumlin Road in north Belfast on December 5, 2013, and with possessing two firearms and ammunition used in the attack. They have denied the charges. The trio were granted bail in 2016 after spending more than two years on remand. The key evidence being used by the prosecution is a quantity of audio which was recorded by the security forces from listening devices planted at various points in Demesne Park in Lurgan, Co Armagh. The devices picked up a conversation which the prosecution contends was an incriminating discussion between the three defendants.  The prosecution argues the recordings show Fitzsimmons and McCrory were “intimately involved” in the Crumlin Road gun attack and that they knew of it, approved it and, in effect, signed off on it before it took place.

Olaf Scholz and Why Germany Is Failing to Lead  (Giselle Donelly, The Bulwark)
It turns out that his robust initial response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine wasn’t a real strategy—it was just messaging.

Waiting for the Generals (Francisco Toro, Persuasion)
Brazil has few safeguards in place to prevent President Bolsonaro from pulling off a coup.

Don’t Assume China’s AI Regulations Are Just a Power Play  (Micah Musser, Lawfare)
Commentators have framed new regulations on AI systems in China as part of an effort to micromanage algorithms. But this fails to address other possible rationales—and glosses over constraints inherent in regulating emerging technologies.

Poland’s Judicial Reform Falls Short of EU Expectations, Complicating Cooperation Against Russia  (Kristie Bluett, Jasmine Cameron and Scott Cullinane, Just Security)
Highly anticipated amendments to Poland’s law on the Supreme Court took effect on July 15, abolishing the controversial Disciplinary Chamber, a body that had been embroiled in controversy from its creation in 2018 because of the ruling party’s political control over its composition. The new measure – signed into law by President Andrzej Duda at the end of June – was part of an effort to unlock more than 35 billion Euros in European Union (EU) pandemic recovery funds that were frozen by the European Commission due to Poland’s failure to uphold its commitments on the rule of law. But domestic and international rule of law advocates say the legislative changes do too little to remove the core threats to Poland’s judiciary, including political influence over the body responsible for judicial discipline.