Europe Wants to Be a Naval Power | Putin’s Fear of Retreat | Alarm About UAE’s U.S. Meddling, and more

Sweden’s Espionage Scandal Raises Hard Questions on Spy Recruitment  (Elisabeth Braw, Foreign Policy)
Last month, Norwegian authorities arrested a suspected Russian military-intelligence officer working undercover in their country, posing as a Brazilian academic. Now an even more dramatic espionage case is engulfing Sweden: Two Iranian-born brothers, one of whom has served as a Swedish intelligence officer, have been charged with spying for Russia for several years. Their espionage is likely to cause serious damage—and it highlights a long-standing issue in intelligence: how people born in hostile countries can be particularly vulnerable to recruitment by those countries and their allies.

Putin’s Fear of Retreat  (Timothy Naftali, Foreign Affairs)
Sixty years ago, the White House and the Kremlin peacefully resolved the most dangerous nuclear crisis of the modern era. Neither superpower had wanted the dispute over the placement of Soviet missiles in Cuba to end in war, but both sides threatened the use of violence to defend their interests. It isn’t just the coincidence of the anniversary of the Cuban missile crisis that has led some observers to search for lessons from that long ago clash to help de-escalate the current war in Ukraine. From the moment he announced the invasion of Ukraine in February, Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted that this conflict could evolve into a nuclear one. “Whoever tries to interfere with us,” he said, “should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences as you have never experienced in your history.” Putin repeated this threat after the Western world and its Asian allies rushed to help Ukraine, and as the war began to go badly for Russia. On September 21, he warned that the Kremlin was prepared to use “all weapons systems available” to protect Russia’s “territorial integrity” and its “independence and freedom.” Since no NATO countries had threatened Russian territorial integrity or its independence or freedom, this statement seemed like a deliberate nuclear threat or, at best, a dangerous bluff.

Intel Community Sounds Alarm About UAE’s U.S. Meddling  (Eli Clifton and Ben Freeman, Responsible Statecraft)
A new report suggests the Gulf State’s influence over American politics has now risen to the level of a national security challenge.

China Has Stolen More U.S. Data Than Every Other Nation Combined, FBI Director Christopher Wray Said  (Chloe Folmar, The Hill)
Speaking at the House Homeland Security Committee’s annual worldwide threats hearing, Wray referenced the prevalence of TikTok and its parent company ByteDance, as a major intelligence concern.