ISIS Made Africa Its Second Home | How to Stop the Next World War | Mexico’s Dying Democracy, and more

The other was the deputy secretary of defense, reworking the U.S. military’s strategy for the growing competition among the world’s great powers. Though we’d never met before, we quickly realized we had reached the same conclusion: In failing to adapt to the changing character of warfare and great-power competition, America risked setting itself up for a catastrophic defeat.

Russia’s Assault on Ukraine Exposes US, Allied Gaps in Preparing for Great-Power War  (John E. Herbst and Jennifer Cafarella, Just Security)
Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February was designed to ensure Moscow’s political control over its democratizing neighbor and to undermine NATO and the European Union. It was clear from the first weeks of the campaign that the result was exactly the opposite: The extraordinary Russian offensive served as a necessary wakeup call for the United States and the West to prepare for the ugly necessities of this new era of great-power competition. The conflict illustrates that, while the United States has for years attempted to pivot away from its decades-long focus on irregular wars in the Middle East and South Asia, it has done far too little to prepare for the challenges posed by Putin’s eight-year war on Ukraine and by a decade of Chinese “wolf warrior diplomacy.”

Turkey’s Future Drone Carriers  (Olli Pekka Suorsa and Brendon J. Cannon, War on the Rocks)
The Turkish TB2, the “Toyota Corolla of drones,” is cheap and reliable — but not fast or powerful. Despite its slow-speed and visibility to ground-based radar, Turkey’s armed drones have gained fame in turning the tide of war in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus. The now famous Bayraktar TB2s are also credited with helping Ukraine stem the Russian march on Kyiv, involvement in the retake of the strategic Snake Island and the sinking of the Moskva cruiser, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. While the success of the TB2 may be linked to its high-definition camera, and savvy operators knowing how to make videos go viral, there is no doubt that Turkey has used drones to great effect in regional conflicts and is carving out an ever-growing percentage of the global market share of drone exports. 
Building on this success, Ankara is now pursuing the development of fully-fledged “drone carriers,” a class of light carriers carrying several dozen still-in-development Bayraktar TB3 remotely piloted aircraft. Turkey looks to be the first country with flat-deck ships replacing manned aircraft with unmanned systems. While it is by no means the only state developing carrier-borne drone capabilities, Turkey is the lead power pursuing “drone motherships” equipped with long-range armed drones as the ship’s primary aviation element. 
This novelty constitutes one more in a growing list of tools with which Turkey can pursue its increasingly ambitious regional policies. However, because Turkey’s drones remain vulnerable to modern air defenses, we argue that drone carriers have a place in low-intensity wars like the proxy wars in Libya and Syria. The drone carriers will help Ankara, for example, project power across long distances with less reliance on land basing. They would thus support Ankara’s interests competing for regional influence in the Middle East, Africa, and beyond. Drone carriers like Turkey’s, however, have clear capability limitations and should not be considered contenders in high-intensity, contested air environments. 

A Plan to Push Back Against China’s Practices  (Aaron Delano-Johnson and Chris Bernotavicus, War on the Rocks)
The Soviet fishing fleet was once a near-permanent fixture on America’s Pacific coast, hauling in an estimated 1.2 million tons of fish until the two sides reached an agreement to limit the Soviet catch in exchange for a relaxation of rules on Soviet port visits. Moscow’s fishing fleet dwindled in the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, only to be replaced by China’s large fleet — and maritime militia — that Beijing now uses to encroach on the sovereignty of its neighbors. The environmental and economic challenges of illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing are clearly a threat to the global fish supply, but also represent a more direct and significant threat to national security.
The vast expansion of China’s illegal fishing fleet has made large, capable vessels readily available to its maritime militia, which it uses for coercive influence in contested areas from the Spratly Islands to oil and gas standoffs with Malaysia and Vietnam. More importantly, it represents a clear example of how China refuses to accept the rights of coastal states and their claim on the resources of their economic exclusion zones. 
The U.S. Coast Guard is well positioned to work with countries to push back against China’s fishing practices, and to take the lead on this issue. It has the capabilities to provide willing partners and allies with advice and assistance on illegal fishing and can work with coastal states on identifying and remedying the threat.

Mexico’s Dying Democracy  (Denise Dresser, Foreign Affairs)
When Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador took office four years ago, he promised to deliver what he branded a “Fourth Transformation,” the next in a series of defining junctures in Mexican history: the War of Independence in the early 1800s, the liberal movement of President Benito Juárez later that century, and the Revolution of 1910. To “make Mexico great again,” he said he would fight deeply ingrained corruption and eradicate persistent poverty. But in the name of his agenda, López Obrador has removed checks and balances, weakened autonomous institutions, and seized discretionary control of the budget.

Militant Democracy Stages a Comeback in Brazil  (Diego A. Zambrano and Ludmilla Martins da Silva, Lawfare)
We haven’t seen a Latin American judiciary move aggressively against an authoritarian attempt on democracy since Colombia did so in 2010.  But in the lead-up to Brazil’s 2022 presidential election, Brazilian Supreme Court justices launched wide-ranging investigations into fake news about the election, authorized a raid against businessmen who had texted about a possible coup d’état, ordered the arrest of a member of the Brazilian legislature who had advocated for a military dictatorship, and fined regular citizens for online posts against Brazil’s democracy. The Supreme Court’s forceful acts reached their apogee on Nov. 14 when Justice Alexandre de Moraes, in his role as elections chief, quickly declared the challenger, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the legitimate winner of the 2022 presidential elections.
The court moved aggressively because Brazil’s incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro, had acted like a veritable would-be dictator, threatening to seize power if he lost reelection, attacking the integrity of the election process, and embracing conspiracy theories about Brazil’s institutions. Bolsonaro went as far as to openly pine for the return of the military dictatorships that governed Brazil in the 1970s and 1980s. But he apparently did not realize that Brazil’s judiciary had been empowered to oppose precisely that sort of attack on democracy.  
In a historical sense, it looks like Brazil’s judiciary has successfully employed the latest tools in a long tradition of militant democracies around the world. At the heart of democracy is a paradoxical problem: Democratic institutions must tolerate and protect the rights of authoritarian movements, even when their explicit goal is to destroy democracy.In Karl Popper’s 1945 book entitled “The Open Society and Its Enemies,” he recognizes that the ultimate contradiction in a democracy is that a popular majority could choose an authoritarian government. But after Europe’s experience with fascist dictatorships and World War II, German reformers embraced the idea that democratic institutions should actively oppose and even defuse authoritarian movements.
It is thus surprising and, for now, welcome news that Brazil’s judiciary has decided to fight against authoritarianism and to protect democracy. And it was not an easy path to get there. In order to stall authoritarian movements, judiciaries need to enjoy a high degree of independence and legitimacy. This is especially true when the authoritarian movement is led by a sitting president, like Bolsonaro. Judges’ decisions must be respected not only by society but also by the military.