Oath Keepers Leaders Were Found Guilty, but the Threat of Antigovernment Extremism Remains

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As right-wing extremism has received more public attention in the past few years, much of the focus has been on discrete groups like Oath Keepers and Proud Boys. But all of these extremist groups are embedded in larger movements and networks. Many individuals in this ideological space support groups without becoming formal members. For example, the Oath Keepers claim around 40,000 dues-paying members (and watchdog estimates suggest that the real number is perhaps 10 percent of that), but before the group’s primary Facebook page was removed in August 2020 for violating community guidelines, the page had more than 500,000 followers. The group has also tapped into other movements to build support: For example, Rhodes spent time in 2009 speaking at Tea Party events, even leading a crowd in Knoxville, Tennessee, in an oath-swearing ceremony. As the organization faces challenges and bad publicity related to the Jan. 6 convictions and other ongoing cases, these unaffiliated supporters might rethink their support—or at least their public support—for the group.

These broader movements and ideological networks provide different options for individuals who are looking to join up with others who share their beliefs about the threats faced by themselves and the nation. For example, consider the Three Percenters, another sub-movement within the broader antigovernment militia movement. There is little ideological difference between Oath Keepers and “Threepers”: The decision to join an Oath Keepers chapter rather than a Threeper group might come down to which one has more members that a person knows or which one has more convenient meetings. Now, to the extent that the guilty verdicts make the Oath Keepers brand toxic to other antigovernment extremists, members and supporters might choose to reorient around a Threeper group or another entity in this movement.

Jackson concludes:

For individuals who might be amenable to antigovernment extremism but aren’t current supporters of this form of extremism, this conviction could have larger ramifications. Aside from the prison time Rhodes and the other defendants now face, being found guilty of seditious conspiracy could make it harder for the group to persuade a broad American public audience with a compelling message of patriotism and pro-constitutionalism: Now, that message will have to compete with the message that the group engaged in sedition. It’s difficult to know how significant this will be, though, given the numerous other actors in this space who don’t have the stigma of sedition attached to them.

It will take time to understand the full consequences of these convictions. Though the Department of Justice was able to obtain convictions against these individuals who so brazenly attacked American democracy, it is far too early to declare victory against those who directly participated in the insurrection, much less the broader set of Americans who invoke patriotism and wrap themselves in the flag to justify violence against the government. The effort against false patriotism did not start with this prosecution, nor will it end with it.