WORLD ROUNDUPHow to Avoid Another World War | The New Era of Deterrence | Why India Can’t Replace China, and more

How to Avoid Another World War  (Henry Kissinger, The Spectator)
The first world war was a kind of cultural suicide that destroyed Europe’s eminence. Europe’s leaders sleepwalked – in the phrase of historian Christopher Clark – into a conflict which none of them would have entered had they foreseen the world at war’s end in 1918.
Does the world today find itself at a comparable turning point in Ukraine as winter imposes a pause on large-scale military operations there? I have repeatedly expressed my support for the allied military effort to thwart Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. But the time is approaching to build on the strategic changes which have already been accomplished and to integrate them into a new structure towards achieving peace through negotiation.

The Growing Divide Between Lukashenko and the Belarusian Elite  (Ryhor Nizhnikau, Carnegie Endowment)
In the eyes of the elite, Lukashenko no longer guarantees stability or solves their problems. On the contrary, he is increasingly a source of problems in his own right.

Is Guyana Getting a Fair Cut of Its Oil Bonanza?  (Catherine Osborn, Foreign Policy)
The government is set to tweak its baseline contract with fuel companies after criticism it got fleeced.

Is the World Ready for the New Era of Deterrence?  (Steve Cimbala and Lawrence J. Korb, National Interest)
The twenty-first century will challenge the concept of deterrence in new ways. Some are already apparent. There are at least nine important components of the new metaverse for deterrence (or meta-deterrence) that will be significant for military planners, policymakers, and theorists.

Have U.S. Military Programs Made African Countries Less Safe?  (Responsible Statecraft)
As Biden hosts dozens of African leaders this week, security will be on the menu. We asked experts if it was time for real change.

America’s New Sanctions Strategy  (Wally Adeyemo, Foreign Affairs)
How Washington can stop the Russian war machine and strengthen the international economic order

Why India Can’t Replace China  (Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman, Foreign Affairs)
With China’s status as the “workshop of the world” marred by rising political risks, slowing growth, and increasingly untenable “zero COVID” policies, no country seems more poised to benefit than India. But India faces too many barriers to able to overtake China.

Qatargate Is a Feature — Not a Bug — of the EU  (Jorge González-Gallarza, The Critic)
Ever since coming into its own, sometime in the 1990s, as a supranational arena distinct from the domestic fray of its member-states, the European Union (EU) has accustomed its conservative critics to sporadic bursts of outrage without much of a surprise factor. Emmanuel Macron eyes abortion as a fundamental right the bloc should guarantee? He reasons a sexual liberation crusade may help break the present deadlock of European integration. The Commission invokes dubious rule-of-law grounds to pare back Hungary’s share of the Covid-19 recovery fund? An internal enemy is of the essence when the fund’s net contributors up their payout. The Qatargate scandal unfolding as of this writing — with six suspects detained, €1.5 million in cash seized and a senior lawmaker stripped of her assignments — is the latest instalment in this saga: no doubt an enormity, but an entirely predictable one at that. As such, it should be read dispassionately.