WORLD ROUNDUPThe Dawn of Drone Diplomacy | Putin’s Pit Bull Is Making a Power Play | Sea Change in the Middle East, and more

Published 21 December 2022

··China’s Brute Force Economics: Waking Up from the Dream of a Level Playing Field
Competing on a level playing field with China’s state-led economy is not possible

··Stabilization Lessons from the British Empire
British colonialism tells us that state-building interventions can be successfully conduct

··The Dawn of Drone Diplomacy
Unmanned vehicles are upending the arms trade—and the balance of power

··Are the Geopolitics of the Middle East Changing?
The Middle East is undergoing a sea change

··Putin’s Pit Bull Is Making a Power Play
Yevgeny Prigozhin, regarded as Putin’s pit bull, now sees an opening for greater political power

China’s Brute Force Economics: Waking Up from the Dream of a Level Playing Field (Liza Tobin, Texas National Security Review)
The time has come for the United States and its allies to abandon the notion that competing on a level playing field with China’s state-led economy is possible and confront the reality of what she calls the country’s “brute force economics.” China’s tactics are not merely an assortment of cutthroat moves made by individual actors. Rather, they are features of Beijing’s long-term strategy and are backed up by the full force of the country’s party-state system, creating a challenge that Washington cannot afford to ignore.

Stabilization Lessons from the British Empire  (Roger B. Myerson, Texas National Security Review)
Failures of costly state-building missions in places like South Vietnam and Afghanistan have created a widespread belief that foreign interventions cannot stabilize fragile states. However, a review of the operational principles of British colonialism may offer some valuable lessons for how to successfully conduct state-building interventions. Before 1939, foreign interventions were regularly managed by a decentralized team of plenipotentiary agents who specialized in fostering local political development. Since 1945, however, international development assistance has generally worked with and through a recognized national government, implicitly supporting a centralization of power. The basic organizational principles of the British colonial district officers — who operated with decentralized political engagement — could be effectively applied in an international state-building agency for promoting accountable government in failed states that export violence and suffering. These principles are reviewed here, not to condone colonialism’s evils, but in order to understand how it was able to establish stable political order in so many different parts of the world.

The Dawn of Drone Diplomacy  (Erik Lin-Greenberg, Foreign Affairs)
Iranian-built drones now routinely puncture the skies over Kyiv. Elsewhere in Ukraine, Turkish- and American-manufactured drones help Ukrainian forces target Russian troops. These operations demonstrate the growing role of remote-controlled weapons in battle. The conflict also showcases how drone exports have increasingly become an instrument of diplomacy.
With drone use on the rise, states have capitalized on drone exports to increase their global clout. To be sure, this is part of an established trend: governments have long leveraged arms exports as a diplomatic tool. Beyond filling state coffers and defraying research and development costs, arms sales help states advance their foreign policy agendas. Selling or donating weapons to like-minded partners can be used to extract concessions, exert influence, counter rivals, and strengthen military ties. A new era of arms trade is emerging, in which new exporters such as Iran and Turkey are displacing traditional weapons suppliers and are using drone exports to extend influence beyond their borders. These exports threaten Washington’s influence and the security of its partners. To keep ahead, U.S. policymakers should help allies build drone programs while developing approaches to counter the threat of rival drones.

Are the Geopolitics of the Middle East Changing?  (Paul R. Pillar, National Interest)
Several recent developments have raised questions about whether the Middle East is undergoing a sea change in patterns of cooperation and conflict among states in the region and with outside powers.

Putin’s Pit Bull Is Making a Power Play  (Peter Rough, Foreign Policy)
As hard-liners shuffle for power amid a failing war, Russia’s military could turn even more aggressive.