The Realist Guide to World Peace | No One Would Win a Long War in Ukraine | India and China’s Latest Border Clash Is Not a One-Off, and more

As Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas argues in Foreign Affairs, “The only path to peace is to push Russia out of Ukraine.” Russia’s defeat, Ukrainian membership in NATO, the trial of Russia’s political and military leadership for war crimes, the payment of damages—these are essential to peace, she concludes. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ten-point peace plan unveiled in November takes the same approach.
If Milley’s comments were controversial, however, they pointed to a larger problem with seeking complete victory. Complete victory could require a very long war, and it would also mean that its ultimate duration would depend on political factors beyond the West’s control. For those calling for complete victory, the West must simply keep supplying Ukraine with the weapons and resources it needs to continue fighting, and wait for Russia to lose and, ideally, for Putin to go.
But a grinding war of attrition has already been hugely damaging for Ukraine and the West, as well as for Russia. Over six million Ukrainians have been forced to flee, the Ukrainian economy is in freefall, and the widespread destruction of the country’s energy infrastructure threatens a humanitarian catastrophe this winter. Even now, Kyiv is on financial life support, maintaining its operations only through billions of dollars of aid from the United States and Europe. The costs of energy in Europe have risen dramatically because of the disruption of usual oil and gas flows. Meanwhile, despite significant setbacks, Russian forces have regrouped and have not collapsed. The best plausible outcome for Ukraine would be the retreat of Russian forces to the lines of control that existed before the February 2022 invasion. But even if the Russians are swept back to the status quo ante, many Ukrainians fear that Moscow will simply retrench and regroup, waiting for the next opportunity to invade. It is by no means clear that military deterrence would be enough to secure the resulting peace.

What Does the Cryptocurrency Decline Mean for Bitcoin Countries?  (Noah Berman, CFR)
El Salvador and the Central African Republic have made Bitcoin legal tender, but market volatility has undermined the experiment.

Argentina Identifies 131st Baby Taken During Dictatorship  (DW)
For decades, a group of grandmothers has been working to reunite these lost children with their biological families.

How Would a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Play Out?  (Neal E. Robbins, Foreign Policy)
So-called matrix board games are used regularly by diplomats, policy analysts, and senior military officials not only to discover how conflicts might unfold but also to “put a face to things they know are true but are reluctant to accept,” said Rand Corporation war games expert David A. Shlapak.

India and China’s Latest Border Clash Is Not a One-Off  (By Sushant Singh, Foreign Policy)
The skirmish in Arunachal Pradesh reflects Beijing’s confidence—and New Delhi’s diminished deterrence.