CHINA WATCHWhat Does China's Arctic Presence Mean to the United States?

By Doug Irving

Published 13 January 2023

Researchers looked at where China is operating in the Arctic, what it wants, and what that could mean for regional security. They concluded that China has made only limited inroads in the Arctic, but that’s not for lack of trying.

Coast Guard cutter spotted the ships during a routine patrol of the Bering Sea, north of Alaska: a guided missile cruiser and two smaller ships from China, traveling in formation with four ships from Russia. The cutter followed until they split up and dispersed.

The ships broke no rules and violated no boundaries. But their appearance so close to the Arctic this past fall raised concern in Washington nonetheless. For years, China has worked to establish footholds in the region that would give it access to rich mineral deposits and shipping lanes, as well as a greater say in Arctic affairs. That—and a strategic presence in a region ringed by the United States and several other NATO countries.

Researchers at RAND and the Swedish Defense Research Agency looked at where China is operating in the Arctic, what it wants, and what that could mean for regional security. They concluded that China has made only limited inroads in the Arctic, but that’s not for lack of trying.

“The threat should not be inflated,” said Stephanie Pezard, a senior political scientist at RAND who specializes in Arctic security. “But at the same time, they have a clear intent to not be excluded from Arctic developments as the region becomes more accessible. The real questions are, How much of a role do they want, and what does that mean for an Arctic nation like the United States?”

Conditions in the Arctic have always been so extreme, the distances so vast, that even rivals like the United States and Russia were forced to cooperate there. But the Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on the planet. Sea routes that sailors and explorers have dreamed about for centuries are starting to open. The promise of Arctic riches—oil, minerals, trade routes, even fish—has started to draw interest from far outside the northern latitudes.

China has declared itself a “near-Arctic state,” a designation it invented to push for a greater role in Arctic governance. It has dispatched research expeditions, sought to establish mining and gas operations, and envisioned a network of shipping routes crossing the Arctic, a “silk road on ice.” It describes itself as an “active participant, builder, and contributor in Arctic affairs,” one that has “spared no efforts to contribute its wisdom to the development of the Arctic region.”