German and U.S. Tanks Will Be Critical in Ukraine’s Next Phase Against Russia
First made in 1979, the Leopard 2 is one of the most potent and popular tanks in the world. It is superior to the Soviet-era tanks fielded by both Russia and Ukraine. It has modern optics and a laser range finder that enable it to track targets day and night and engage them accurately. It can move quickly (top speed: forty-four miles per hour) and it has secure ammunition storage so as to avoid the danger of its turret blowing off when hit—the “jack in the box” effect that has destroyed so many Russian T-72 tanks. The M1 Abrams is, in many respects, similar to the Leopard 2 but, in its newer variants, features even better armor and more sophisticated optics and targeting systems. The Abrams took a fearsome toll on Iraq’s Soviet-era tanks in 1991 and 2003.
The goal for Ukrainian commanders is to quickly assemble at least seventy Leopard 2s—enough for two armored battalions. Of course, Ukrainian soldiers will need to be trained to operate and maintain these tanks, but given their experience operating Soviet-era tanks, this should not present any major difficulties.
These tanks could be critical to Ukraine’s prospects for mounting a successful offensive in the late winter or spring. Russia’s momentum has stalled since the early days of the war, while Ukraine has mounted successful counteroffensives around Kherson and Kharkiv, taking back about 20 percent of the territory Russia occupied in early 2022. But there is still an immense amount of territory in Ukraine’s south and east that has been occupied by Russian forces since the start of the war on February 24, 2022 (to say nothing of the territory in Crimea and the Donbas that Russia has occupied since 2014). Their front line stretches over eight hundred miles, and Russian forces have been digging in and fortifying their positions. Ukraine needs modern battle tanks such as the Leopard 2 to have any hope of punching through Russian positions without suffering appalling casualties.
Secretary Austin told me in an interview last week, while he was in Germany for a meeting of countries donating military equipment to Ukraine, that “a realistic goal for this year” would be for Ukraine to “cut the land bridge” Russian forces have established between Russia-occupied Crimea and Russia proper. That “land bridge” constitutes one of only two supply arteries for Crimea, the other being the Kerch Strait bridge that was damaged in a truck explosion on October 8. If Ukraine were able to cut the “land bridge” and destroy the Kerch Strait bridge, that could make it difficult for Russia to hold onto Crimea. Conversely, if Ukraine fails to cut the land bridge this year, Russia could pour in more men and resources and Ukraine could lose that portion of its country permanently.
Ukraine could benefit from other western capabilities as well, if they’re able to obtain them, such as longer-range rockets to target Russian bases in Crimea and fighter jets such as the U.S.-made F-16 or Swedish Gripen to provide air cover for its forces. But once the Leopard 2s are incorporated into the Ukrainian army, along with Bradleys, Strykers, CV90s, and other armored vehicles, Ukraine is likely to mount an offensive that could determine the course of the war.
Max Boot is Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies. This article is published courtesy of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
