CHINA WATCHU.S. General's Bellicose China Memo Highlights Civilian-Military Divide

By Rob Garver

Published 31 January 2023

A controversial memo from a U.S. Air Force general predicting war with China in 2025 may reflect a growing disconnect between the way the United States’ civilian and military leadership view the relationship between the world’s two largest economic powers.

A controversial memo from a U.S. Air Force general predicting war with China in 2025 may reflect a growing disconnect between the way the United States’ civilian and military leadership view the relationship between the world’s two largest economic powers.

In the memo, which began circulating online over the weekend, General Michael Minihan opens with the stark statement, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025.”

Minihan, in charge of the Air Force’s Air Mobility Command (AMC), a 5,000-person unit focused on logistics, offers no evidence for his prediction of war between the U.S. and China other than a vague assertion that upcoming elections in the U.S. and Taiwan will create an opportunity for Beijing to attempt reunifying the self-governing island with the mainland. China has long claimed that Taiwan is part of Chinese territory.

‘Aim for the head’
The general’s memo orders units under his command to step up their training and readiness to be prepared “to deter, and if required, to defeat China.”

In addition to broad directives about the AMC’s logistical readiness, Minihan adds several specific orders, including the directive that “All AMC aligned personnel with weapons qualification will fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most. Aim for the head.”

A former C-130 pilot, Minihan has served in other senior roles in the U.S. military, including deputy commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command from September 2019 to August 2021, so he has a deep understanding of the Chinese military.

Civilian-Military Split
Minihan’s comments appear to contradict statements by senior officials in the Biden administration, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Earlier this month, Austin told reporters that the U.S. has noted increasingly aggressive behavior by China toward Taiwan but downplayed the possibility of a near-term attack.

“We believe that they endeavor to establish a new normal, but whether or not that means that an invasion is imminent, I seriously doubt that,” he said.

In a statement sent to VOA, Pentagon press secretary Air Force Brigadier General Patrick Ryder said, “The National Defense Strategy makes clear that China is the pacing challenge for the Department of Defense and our focus remains on working alongside allies and partners to preserve a peaceful, free and open Indo-Pacific.”