Feds’ Colorado River Choice: California’s Rights or Arizona’s Future?

The government’s aim in drafting these new cuts is to prevent the collapse of the river’s two main reservoirs, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, which have shriveled during the recent climate-change-fueled drought. If the water level in these man-made lakes falls much lower, their dams will stop producing electricity. In the worst-case scenarios, water would no longer be able to move through the dams at all, causing a humanitarian crisis across the Southwest.

The river states began planning for severe drought more than 15 years ago, agreeing to trim water usage little by little as Powell and Mead emptied. But the two reservoirs have fallen much farther and faster than anticipated, making previous cut agreements obsolete and forcing states into emergency negotiations.

The negotiations began last June when a senior administration official ordered the seven states to cut their water consumption by between 2 and 4 million acre-feet, or as much as a third of total usage. After the states failed to reach an agreement on new cuts, the administration threatened to impose its own cuts.

That threat led six states to endorse a plan that would see California, Nevada, and Arizona all lose more than a quarter of their Colorado River water during the driest years. California alone objected to that plan, arguing that the law requires Arizona to shoulder the burden of the shortage, and proposed a set of cuts that was more forgiving to the Golden State. The two plans that federal officials unveiled on Tuesday largely reflect those two blueprints.

In the months since the states drafted those plans, a massive amount of snow has fallen in the mountains that feed the river, brightening the outlook for Lakes Powell and Mead. Once that snow melts, water levels in the two reservoirs will likely rise, taking the worst-case scenarios off the table. But even after a wet winter, the structural deficit remains.

“We’re thankful for this winter snow and rain,” Beaudreau said. “But everyone who lives and works in the basin knows that one good year will not save us from more than two decades of drought.”

Responding to that drought will require the federal government to make a painful choice between two plans that would both inflict serious economic harm on the Southwest. Beaudreau tried to strike a positive note, though, saying the crisis had brought about unprecedented collaboration between the states.

“Some of the commentary has depicted an us-versus-them dynamic in the basin,” he said. “I don’t see that at all. I see commitment, collaboration, and problem solving.”

Whether or not that spirit of collaboration can survive the implementation of historic water cuts remains to be seen.

Jake Bittle is a free-lance reporter. This story was originally published by Grist. You can subscribe to its weekly newsletter here.