CHINA WATCHTaiwan: China Sees Invasion of Ukraine as “Test Case” for Its Own Designs
For Taiwan, which has been under the threat of an invasion by China for decades, the fate of Ukraine is closely linked with its own. China views the war in Ukraine as a “test case” for its own designs on Taiwan, according to Taiwanese Deputy Foreign Minister Roy Chun Lee.
Since Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Taiwan has kept a close eye on the war and how Kyiv has fared.
For the democratically governed island, which has been under the threat of an invasion by China for decades, the fate of Ukraine is closely linked with its own.
China views the war in Ukraine as a “test case” for its own designs on Taiwan, according to Taiwanese Deputy Foreign Minister Roy Chun Lee.
In an exclusive interview with RFE/RL on the sidelines of the GLOBSEC security conference in Slovakia, Lee explained why Taipei wants the West to keep supporting Ukraine’s war effort, how Europe’s stance on Taiwan is changing, and in what ways China and Russia’s close ties could affect the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region.
“Until a final victory arrives, defending Ukraine against Russia has [direct] implications for Taiwan,” Lee said. “In particular, it shows the potential support that we will receive from our democratic allies in the case of a Chinese military invasion.”
Beijing views Taiwan as a rogue province and has promised to unify it with mainland China — even by force, if necessary. U.S. President Joe Biden has vowed to defend the island if it is attacked, fueling concerns that Taiwan could be the next geopolitical flashpoint after Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Lee said Chinese leader Xi Jinping has been monitoring both Russia’s performance on the battlefield and the level of Western support for Ukraine as the war nears its 16th month of fighting.
The senior Taiwanese diplomat added that Ukraine, backed by the West, has defended most of its territory from Russia, a move that he argued has had a deterring effect on China. But he added that Beijing is assessing the war over a “longer time span” and is closely watching if divisions emerge among Western nations over continued military support to Ukraine and enforcing tough sanctions against Moscow.
“I think China is waiting to see what happens two years from now, and three years from now, and if the Western democratic camp will be able to hold their position,” Lee said.
Navigating Western Cracks
Due to the sweeping implications of Chinese actions toward Taiwan, some Republicans in the U.S. Congress have called for scaling back U.S. military support for Ukraine, arguing that it detracts from being able to arm Taiwan, which they view as a more urgent task.
